It you submit 100 shares, the payout you get depends on the length of the round. If it's 1000 you get 10% of the block, if 10000 you get 1%. The length of the round is a random variable not known in advance. However, its conditional expectation depends on how long it's been already. If the round is fresh the expected length is equal to the difficulty. If the round has already been going on for twice the difficulty, the expected length of the round is thrice the difficulty. Thus your expected payout per share submitted will be less if the current round is old. And as Raulo explains in his paper, 43.5% of the difficulty is the point at which the expected payout per share becomes less than solo/score-based.
Ok, so let's suppose you know when the round started on pool A (longpoll on pool, blockexplorer shows your pool got a block, pool stats, etc). I assume that that pool A is now going to solve a block and I get in fast. Supposedly this rounds ends in one of the following scenarios:
- round is closed on the first block found in the chain, pool gets consecutive blocks
- round is closed after the second block found in the chain, some other pool gets the first block
- round is closed after the n-th block...
If I mine for 100% of the time, then I get:
- 50 * my_shares / pool_shares -- every 7 minutes
- 50 * my_shares / pool_shares -- every 14 minutes
- 50 * my_shares / pool_shares -- every n*7 minutes
If I mine for 43% of the time to get a new block only at the beginning of a round, I get:
- 0.43 * 50 * my_shares / pool_shares -- every 7 minutes
- (0.43 / 2) * 50 * my_shares / pool_shares -- every 14 minutes
- (0.43 / n) * 50 * my_shares / pool_shares -- every n*7 minutes
If I mine for 43% of the time to get a new round (when every new block pops up), I get:
- 0.43 * 50 * my_shares / pool_shares -- every 7 minutes
- 0.43 * 50 * my_shares / pool_shares -- every 14 minutes
- 0.43 * 50 * my_shares / pool_shares -- every n*7 minutes
Other pools have similar situations, no to mention solo mining. The only place left to go is PPS, which is starting to fade out and offers a ~7% penalty or more.
The following is a sample of block intervals at this time:
0:09:51
0:01:480:01:330:05:58
0:03:19
0:05:56
0:00:310:12:36
0:04:12
0:01:170:00:43
0:00:450:18:56
0:05:20
0:07:53
0:14:50
0:04:48
0:01:010:17:38
The current interval is 399 seconds, or 0:06:39. The 43% of that is 172 seconds or 0:02:52. What will happen with this method, in case of the above bolded intervals? You will be:
- effectively mining for the whole duration of the block
- effectively mining for the whole duration of the block in some cases, the whole duration of a second block in some cases, and in a small example above, statistically probable for the whole duration of a two blocks round
- in the case of n-blocks rounds, your contribution will be even less important, for example in a 40 minutes round you will be mining just 3 minutes, while everyone mines the full period, your payment will be less than 10% of that of honest miners, how much can you abuse out of that?