Topic: other indicators of where the price might go - page 2. (Read 2207 times)

You seriously bet money on Bitcoin being below 100 in 10 months?

I hope you did not bet a lot lol.

I see this sort of comment often ie if it goes below x the large numbers will buy in.
I am not so sure. nobody knows what bitcoin is "worth' and if its price goes down to say $100 you will still lose $60 per bitcoin if it goes down further to say $40. That is still a big enough loss in both dollar and percentage terms to make people have second thoughts about buying in at $100

To my mind people should determine their buy in price when they have degoxed the data over the past few eyars . I think most of the upsurges were engineered and with out them bitcoin would be say $20. But since it would have grown from $2 in only a few years that is 'great'  growth ie it is not a failure. It is just it will look like a crash while people keep showing charts with $1000 all time high from the gox type effects.

yes its ipredict.

i think in theory it can be used by people from overseas but the conditions ipredict work under to be allowed to operate are fairly messy making it harder for others eg ipredict want to payout into a NZ bank account. I have seen in the forum a person from overseas complaing about the time to get his payout by wire transfer. Note ipredict is run on a shoe string and have very few staff so anything out of the ordinary is hard for them. eg they only pay out on tuesday and thursdays. Also to stop it being an outright 'betting' site they are made by the approval body to limit the funds that you can deposit to I think NZ$2,500 per annum with an all time max of NZ$10,000.



Email them and see what the current position is. 

Note it is a self balancing system ie every time you buy it has to match a seller or the marketmaker (same applies for shorting the stock). so if you go in with lots of money quickly you will get very poor odds quickly as it is a thin market. You need to put in say only $5 per day to lessen the self defeating effect of big plunges.

hope this helps

This is ipredict? Do you know if it can be used by non NZ residents? I like the odds.

^ its fonzie so better to ignore.

I had thought that the 160 was the bottom, but if it goes below 200 I think we will see low 100s. I do not see double digits as I think there would be way to much buy pressure.

Even low 100s would be for a small time so keep your buy orders ready. It will take at least a week, likely a lot more time to play out so you got time to get fiat in.

Found this on the interwebs from a TA prof. He thinks that we might establish a bottom in the lower singular digit range!

I'm not a superbear, but I am short term bearish. I think 100 is possible, maybe even dipping down to the double digits. But I disagree on buy support, there has been less buy support every single time a support level is broken ( all the way from 1200 down to the current levels)

Maybe a flash crash from cascading margin calls on all the longs to take us down to below $200, but it wouldn't last long. There is way too much buy support at those levels. The thought of a $50 coin would be revisiting the lows of 2013 and likely way out of reach, I think even the superbears would agree on that.

I am a fan of prediction markets. They seem to be for some things a good indicator (eg elections when prediction markets are compared to poling etc). having to spend your money to express your view cuts out alot of the crap responses.

so it is interesting to see what a prediction market in New Zealand that has just started up is saying. it is early days and there is thin trading but it shows the info below.

people are predicting the value of bitcoin at 1 jan 2016.

you get $24 for very $1 spent if you back it being $1000 or more. That indicates to me people think the gox con made the price that sort of level and unless there is another con it will not go back there.

The returns for it being $500-$1000 and $100-$500 are about the same - $2.03 for $1 and $2.23 for $1. That to me just reflects they feel with a current price around $250 the price in that timeframe (10 months away) will be no more than double or halved.

what is surprising to me is that the odds for a $50-$100 price are just $3.35 to 1 and $50 or less just $9 to 1.

they seem low to me considering we are at $250 now and the end date is  just 10 months away.

so i read that as people are bearish not bullish.

I think bitcoin is overpriced so I am happily buying into odds of $3.35 and $9 respectively.

what do others think?


code    price at 1 jan 2016   cost at 28 March 2015   payout   ratio           odds   profit for very $1 spent
vhi   1000+                  0.04                             1          25.000   24.00   $24.00
hi   500-1000                  0.33                             1          3.030           2.03   $2.03
mid   100-500                  0.31                             1          3.226           2.23   $2.23
low   50-100                  0.23                             1          4.348           3.35   $3.35
vlow   50-                          0.10                             1         10.000           9.00   $9.00