Topic: Our economic and financial infrastucture will not survive in war only crypto can (Read 166 times)

the economy and the strength of ones finance is just an aspect of the so many things to be considered in the event of a war most especially in a time when nuclear weapon and several other weapon of mass destruction is being tested around the world and it potential usage is a major concern across the globe. in the event that a serious war breaks out that will affect the entire globe, a topic regarding the fate of human and the potential effect of the war on mans existence is of more importance than just the effect on bitcoin or crypto.

if our economy falls during war, it will directly affect crypto even though it will be safer for the bitcoin holder who will experience a DIP in his holding compared to those in other sectors whose asset can be completely made made useless depending on the extent of the war. but even at that, there is a great probability of losing ones bitcoin holding or at the least selling your holding just to ensure that you survive through that season since what is more important at that time is that you survive through the season. bitcoin operating in it own system is safe but still suffers when real world event happens, that's why their ever a thing as the trump effect on bitcoin bull. if the outcome of an election can affect bitcoin positively then the reverse can be the case if their is a negative occurrence.

I dont see crypto as replacing mainstream currency, the two are different in many ways but crypto isnt ready for that I think.   What probably replaces a failure in FIAT currency is some similar standard, the IMF already has some currency in backup for example.  

Once FIAT has failed multiple times I can see some transition away from basing a currency on politics like we have.  Its led to governmental bias and too much debt, these views are not yet widespread hence why I think people have to learn its a failed idea before really changing.

   BTC isnt leveraged of course, this makes it more resilient perhaps but also its going to be harder for people to take on in future as its alot different to the current system.

If you have no internet, would be hard to transact with others using crypto. So if you want to assure that you have something to use, you need to store cash as well. Because cash will save you if they need payment right away. You can easily exchange the cash basically with anything if you are in tight spot.

If we consider gold and bitcoin as assets that will be effective in a critical situation, each of them has its own disadvantages.
Yes, it is true that gold reserves are “not a very comfortable burden” in terms of its movement. The way out is to trust someone to store it, and the ability to broadcast its value if you need to move. This works in a “stable world”, but becomes very complicated in case of some complicated situations - e.g. natural disaster, war, etc. The latter option would nullify the properties of gold.
On a clear and relevant example I will give today's situation - for example, after the terrorist attack by Russia against Ukraine, in 2014, bank branches of Ukrainian banks in the territory temporarily occupied by Russia (the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine) were simply looted, including vaults and safe deposit boxes of private owners.  Further terrorist aggression of Russia against Ukraine, which was continued in 2022 in the form of a large-scale attack on Ukraine, led to the same consequences - looting of banks, vaults, robbery under threat of death of ordinary residents of Ukraine. And they stole not only gold, household appliances, clothes, cutlery, crockery, but also computers, laptops, smartphones of ordinary citizens, where most of us store our data on wallets with cryptocurrencies. So for these situations - storing such assets involves very high risks. Moreover, even if the assets were not stolen, in the territories destroyed by barbaric bombardments, in peaceful Ukrainian towns and villages, a person has no possibility to use for example cryptocurrency - the complete destruction of civilian infrastructure by Kremlin terrorists leaves no chance to get access to the global network to conduct transactions.

In the current time we are living in this time, the demand for paper money is generally decreasing day by day. Earlier people were not used to online banking but nowadays people are used to online banking and also people are active enough in crypto platform so in future it may be that most of the people in the world are becoming crypto dependent and most of the people are transacting through crypto currency. We definitely come forward in this direction because we are already involved in cryptocurrency

as they require trust in their issuers and access to fiat currency reserves.

6. Solana (SOL)
Solana is known for its high throughput and low transaction costs but has faced criticism regarding centralization concerns due to its validator structure. In extreme crisis scenarios where decentralization is crucial for security and reliability, Solana may not be the best choice because it relies more heavily on specific validators that could be compromised or offline.

7. Tron (TRX)
Tron aims to build a decentralized internet but has faced skepticism regarding its level of decentralization compared to other blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum. Its reliance on specific nodes could pose risks during crises when those nodes might become unavailable.

Conclusion
In summary, during extreme crises characterized by war or systemic failures:

Best Options: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Stellar (XLM)
Moderate Options: XRP
Less Favorable: USDC, USDT, Solana (SOL), Tron (TRX)
The most resilient cryptocurrencies tend to be those that maintain strong decentralization and have proven utility outside conventional financial systems.

This is quite a naive point of view. In a time of war, at least when we start to go into global war territory, everything collapses. Internet connections across the world are likely to be targeted and severed, which will break the connectivity that crypto relies on to sustain it's value. Crypto currency might be some of the worst affected, because people will stop being able to use it to transport funds across borders or at the very least, the pool of interested buyers will become much more silo'd. However no part of the economy will be safe when everything is turned towards a war economy and you'll be lucky if you can even spend it when they start drafting people, the fact that you can store it offline on a USB stick ain't going to cut it.

There are no winners in times of war, as it creates crises. Even if only two countries are involved, if they have resources needed by other nations, the global economy will definitely be affected. If mainstream finance is disrupted due to war, like losing access to funds, Bitcoin could also be affected, but only temporarily.

When people lose trust in traditional finance, they’ll look for a safe place to put their money. Naturally, they’ll turn to Bitcoin. With its fixed supply, any sudden increase in demand will always lead to an increase in its value. To keep it simple: when the world struggles, and traditional finances struggle, Bitcoin benefits.

I am not an expert and the subject you raised is a very complex one that depends on countless factors. Also when you say "crisis" it could mean a lot of scenarios and each requiring a different approach.

For example a crisis like what we've seen in the past 4-5 years is going be what I explained before based on history (bitcoin will go up, gold will go up, altcoins go up but not as much).
In this scenario bitcoin and gold are both good options. We saw how gold went from about $1500 to $2700 and its price doesn't depend on "main stream financial markets" since it is global and countries and their central banks are amassing gold.

But crisis could mean a much wider armed conflict, in which case your point about gold being hard to carry around is an excellent point. In that scenario bitcoin is the superior choice for people being dislocated, and it is less risky to carry around since it would be just a set of words (seed phrase) that can even be memorized.

But I still don't see any of the altcoins to be viable options. Their rises are inferior to bitcoin and they are riskier to use considering how many of them are very centralized. For example USDT that you mentioned relies on the company behind it. If that company is affected in a certain crisis scenario, then their coin will dump hard. That is not something that can happen to bitcoin.

That may be because crypto is digital but I still think they can get affected if people suffer. Remember, without us, there will also be no crypto. There might still be other digital currency or assets, that can work like a BTC that a country also considers. Russia is just another country even though we think they have a unique characteristic. So yeah, they can as well do what other countries are doing.

I think it only depends on the damage of the war, if what is going to be the action of the banks. If it is not severe, they might still allow withdrawals. It can also depend on the bank's management. Some are too strict that they won't allow any forms of transaction no matter how much the damage is the war is.

It's normal for a system to collapse, especially the centralized one but as long as they are still legit and have lots of back ups (E.g. funds), they can always fix their issues. BTC is decentralized 100 percent before but I think its decentralization have been slightly affected now by the regulations and other centralize service that we see around. This is why some miners lost its support towards it. Mining difficulty is also getting harder, which is another reason for the decline of the miners. Its value can also be affected by them.

It is true that Bitcoin is decentralized, and is supported by miners and nodes all over the world, which makes it very difficult to disable, but we must not forget that Bitcoin is on the Internet, and in cases of war, the Internet infrastructure may be destroyed and access is difficult.

My country is living in a state of war, and two days ago the Internet was cut off and I was unable to access the Internet, lose my wallet, and conduct some transactions. Fortunately, the Internet has been restored again, but this is a case that must be taken into consideration.

Relying entirely on crypto also is not always easy.​ Besides the high price volatility of Bitcoin can be very risky, even as it gains traction as a store of value. Mix and match crypto investments with things like tokenized real-world assets (RWA), and that might give us more stability, as it will link the physical and digital economies.

Instead of going all in or nothing, I think it's way smarter to spread our wealth across different cryptocurrencies, real world assets, and strong traditional investments. This way, we can still get the benefit of crypto without taking on too much risk. On the other hand, real world assets, let us safely own and trade things like real estate or commodities using blockchain tech. Having diversified portfolio gives us better chance in case there are financial problem.

The essence of holding the Gold isn't for exchange but to safeguard the value of your money relatively.
The price? Demand and supply creeps in
The price would be determined between you and the buyers perceived value.
Don't forget Gold has an inherent value and scarcity.

I understand your view. I have seen the resilience of the price of TRON and monero
But it doesn't change the fact that Bitcoin moves other follow and the most impressive thing about Bitcoin price
Is it's recovery.

And about Stablecoins, They are usually pegged to a Fiat in most case USD and risk been de-pegged anytime especially during crisis
Take Luna foe example.

Everything is at risk in been affected because everything exist in an environment
So factors that huge undergoing changes would affect every thing but with differences in impacts.

Bitcoin price? It had a price before the listing of exchanges and could be sold via DEX or direct exchange.

You are allmost right but look btc price still will be impacted a lot.
And how can you deal with btc even If the price can not be calculated ?
What If the crypto exchangers Will be out of order to and a lot world world data Centers not even underground what If just few of the world lagest data Centers get hit then the all the records of wealth it's gone.

Everybody talking about prep for food if Crisis happens and many other things like stock up the water.

But nobody don't talk about how to secure the wealth the numbers what's on screen in our banks in our smart phone wallets or exchangers.nobody don't talk about that that's ok but i haven't heard about any goverment officials will give guarantees?
And If bigger crisis happens how they can give any guarantees they can't so that's the biggest winners are the ones who could keep their wealth out of the mainstream system in decentralized system yes btc is that kind of but btc price still impacted by mainstream financial system so btc in this case will be risky in my opinion

I would hold gold but it's not easy to carry around yes you could but in times of Crisis the gold are last thing they think off course it can save you If you sell it for cheaper price, but then again i'll ask how the gold price is calculated ? If there will be markets down and disturbed internet exchangers and financial system errors you can't really know the gold price too.

So gold is way out bitcoin might be the option but i think should focus on those cryptocurrencies wich not impacted so much financial instutions servers data bases and cryptocurrency exchangers data networks.

In this case even cryptocurrency like monero would be perfect option all what it needs just internet the financial instutions don't like that currency so much and it's not flucuatiing of main stream financial markets so much.
...i would say the btc eth xrp and many others are now very much connected to mainstream network so in times like this you could see btc eth price to jumping up and down or will have some system errors or glich.

Now about stablecoins...well at some point they don't read the mainstream data so much and the fact that tether is buyer of USA treasuries don't affecting stablecoins much for example USDt on tron or USDC on solana can function well even without much of the wall street or banks or mainstream involvement they mostly on dex and this kind of network works much more effient ways.

So in times of serious crisis or war or what ever no matter how much the big guys on wall street or city of London where is a lot bankers maybe ceo of Barclays ....or blackrock Larry Fink...i think they all ready know that only way to secure wealth is to keep it outside of the mainstream system as possible TRON seems to be quite good option, off course they cant say this out openly then everybody will sell btc lol and buy the coins what guys like blackrock buying.
But markets itself will rule out the winners and losers the crisis and issues with financial system will show us at the end whos the winner whos the loser.

Im not smart or expert but i like to think logically and use rational way of thinkng...so i think i should look for cryptocurrency wich can operate still without much of mainstream and not depend of some main stream financial players , i belive that we live in the world where a lot mainstream networks are interconnected and If some bigger crisis happens then you could be poor over night and nobody there to secure for you If bigger war happens or anything unaccepted like natural disasters.
So i'll sleep peacfully If i know my wealth is out of the centralised system and not even connected much with main steam systems.

Im sure Micheal Saylor got a lot to tell about this but off course he woun't comment Im sure he got his money in some coin wich is safe...If he would reveal to world this lol this coin would rally not 5000x but 20000x in one day.

You think it make sense? If not tell me why ? I would like know what experts telling about this ?

You nailed it. That’s exactly why some countries are starting to see Bitcoin as a viable option, I think even Russia. In times of war or conflict, accessing funds from centralized banks can be nearly impossible, they can freeze accounts or shut down systems entirely. Also, banks depend on centralized servers, and if those go down, the entire system can collapse.

Bitcoin, on the other hand as well know is decentralized, supported by miners across the globe. That makes it incredibly hard to disrupt, and here's one thing, Bitcoin isn’t tied to any single country like fiat currencies are. If a country faces economic struggles or hyperinflation, something we’ve already seen happen in places like Venezuela... Bitcoin’s value remains unaffected. Fiat, however, can lose its worth overnight. This is why Bitcoin is a great hedge.

Bitcoin will be a decent option (not the best) and altcoins will be the worst option compared to traditional assets like gold.

Lets take a quick look at the past. Over the past 5 years we had two major global event that affected the global economy (specifically caused recession). It was the pandemic that started in 2019 and the NATO-Russian conflict that started in 2022.

In both cases the chain of events that led to recession made bitcoin crash and enter a bear market.

We also know that historically altcoins get dumped much harder each time there is a bitcoin drop. And if there is a bitcoin bear market the altcoins crash and burn without recovery.
For example during that period ETH that was once worth 0.15BTC is now only worth 0.039BTC which is roughly 75% loss after its ATH. Meaning it could not even recover after crashing.

So normally I would never bag hold altcoins but if the ongoing conflicts spread, I would not even think about altcoins anymore and also I would categorize bitcoin as a high risk asset. Which means I'll hold what BTC I have but I wouldn't buy more. Instead I would probably convert my fiat to gold.

The Bank is not Bitcoin, if the banks fails Bitcoin would still strive.
And owning Cryptocurrency doesn't equal safety
Most are scams not to mention during crisis.
And if War Breaks out
Every thing is going to feel it including Bitcoin
Though in a short while since it exist in an environment.

Smart people? Most are created to scam people of their funds
Except you talking about Bitcoin, which by your context I doubt.
What's the essence of owning a Bitcoin or crypto if it's held by a third party.

Yeah Selfish I get that but I hope you don't have a feel of how war is.

Off course i will be neutral i'll be in switzerland or Monaco Im neutral i never fight for any countries rich owners benefits If i fight i want share too.
Why ukraine fighters in wars don't sign the contract with zelensky that they get some bigger share or % after fight? The war is business so why anyone fight for free?
Off course i'll wait when world is in full chaos then i come and buy cheap everything i'll get even all the womens for cheap lol 😁
Im sure yes crypto was created by smart people who keep crypto and wait while world is in chaos and come and buy everything for cheap.
But only few people think like that 90% people want to be fools and do things what does not benefit for them.
I do only things what benefits me Im selfish and i don't care about any global problems all i care is that my life will be good 24/7 it's better that world is in crisis because money money will have more power over others Even small money Will have more power.
Since i don't have education and i have a lot rich friends too who don't have education we wait that time when we see world in Crisis then those who point their finger on us those who got money but no education will be quiet when world will be in Crisis then people stop this things like asking..."how much educations you have" and other things like what skills or degree .....well Im capitalist i don't have any skills or education much let those who got skills or education be useful for world and i focus on only to make money and If i have money i can use those educated ones specially in times of crisis but ye most important is i move away from soveirgn assets.

What i hate most even i have money and want to deal with my money banks and even goverments asking silly questions like how much education or degree i have....i told them i got money If i need i hire people who pay to someone who fix everything for me, that answere they did not like lol that's why i wait for Crisis then no more silly questions Im capitalist and business person i don't need explain nothing i belive in money power and that's why i like guys like trump who belive only in power of money.

So Crisis Will make everybody to respect people with money again so people like me Will have respect again and nobody don't ask silly questions like what's my education or work experince lol

Smart is to prepare ourselfes with cryptocurrency but not just with bitcoin because thanks to many financial instutions the bitcoin has a lot to do with banks and other financial instutions If data centers will be destroyed and banks and all the financial instutions out of order If they are not backed up with blockchain technology with many backup servers or computers around the world then it will disturb the all network and we would have price flucuations and crypto exchangers using issues aswell as in the modern world everything is connected with each other.

Also It's no secret that If brics vs usa compete with each other you don't want to hold dollars neither russian rubles neither euro currency becouse in this fight the brics and usa nato are both big powers the USA the UK the Europe and russia and china so they all will just damage each others they all strong.

It's not smart to have bonds or real estate or money in any of the western or brics nations those nations will have issues.

In times like that i'd like to take switzerland neutral style when rest of the world fights i don't get involved and that's why cryptocurrency is so well established in switzerland becouse they know that in times like this it's not smart to hold any of the countries currencies better to hold cryptocurrency only in large part and that's what the smartest Banks preparing now like UBS it's not surprise if the Satoshi are from switzerland or bank like UBS

With UK currency the case is worse If Euro is traded and used as official currency in many countries so even If in large attack germany or other bigger locations get attacked countries like spain can still run the euro zone currency state, while with UK just few data-centers will be out and banks + cyber attacks and cyber issues then UK pound will have no way to have value.
But overall world is connected so the mainstream financial system will be taken out and your cryptocurrency ATM will be only solution to withdraw cash since cryptocurrency mostly need just internet connection.

Everybody who invest now in sovering assets like real estate bonds stock markets or any other assets or keep money in the banks they can lose everything and nobody to blame on this.

The cryptocurrency is only way to keep your wealth and even to Grow your wealth.
Because even If there is no internet connection you move to another location and once you got internet connection you can have access to cryptocurrency and your crypto is in safe place.

It's clear that people who got no cryptocurrency sad how it is but they end up with nothing when system goes down there is no Records of anything.
Basicly you only have anything If you have cryptocurrency anything else is risky and basicly you got nothing.
Also a lot civil unrests will emerge a lot crimes because of poverty anger and geopolitical situation generally so many currencies will be falling anyways over the next months It's predicted that a lot civil unrests will be and even groups try to take powers with violance in many countries so in this envoirement there is a nobody to protect your wealth or assets smart people knows only way to be sure that you have something is to keep in cryptocurrency.