Topic: Outside money will only come when we make a new ATH - page 2. (Read 2648 times)

How's the air in that vacuum where you pillage the orderbook and no one reacts?

Side note: Intoxicating, right?

Lols, are you also one of those hyper bulls?!?! ... sigh i'll try to break it down for you  since you seem to be one of those misinformed masses

Alright so lets go into a little understanding of how financial instruments work ...

okay so for the "stock market" vs the "bitcoin market" we have shares and an open order book ...... ok. so to increase a certain value ... you have price levels ... so to increase the market by 10% you have to atleast attempt to buy all the open sell orders that make up all the total value of 10% ... okay so lets put that into a figurative term ..

lets say its open order book was a minimum of atleast 1 million shares (pre market + open market collectively)  to move the price up 10%... So for google for instance 10% post open market rise the price was so it was around the price of just below 600$ - 660$... so to increase that value by 60$ you would of had to bought atleast (1,000,000*640$) = $640,000,000 dollars worth of bought shares ..(remember there are market makers set by google and other big funds itself and the 1,000,000 shares could of been multiple times higher to reach a certain market share percentage)

Then we come to earnings and presented values ... google showed q2 earnings above investors estimates and non gaap shares above the past 5 q's ... so unlike bitcoin the value of google was determined by the return of their quarterly earnings.

ok so now for bitcoin...
unlike the stock market ... bitcoin does not have a quarterly earnings as it is not a common generating "asset". It is an intangible / commodity contract ... so for it to reach 450 billion you would have to(450 billion divided by 10 million bitcoins) = $45,000 per coin / aproximately (taking into account that lost coins cannot be transacted in sales and account for 30% of all bitcoins + 5% per YOY) and so you would need to somehow generate this buy and sell order constantly since bitcoin has a very small market order book. so for it to reach even 400$ you would need a buyer and a seller at the end and once you buy out all of the $400 dollar level orders you need for people to sell you more ... and more and more and more .. you get the idea until you reach around 2,000$ but by then you would have an investor that would of had bought a majority of the "bitcoins" ... Think of this as the "WILLY BOT" effect , it can only go on for so long until liquidity runs out or the investor fails to seek other buyers...



Side note: Also you should learn a bit more into economics and finance before you claim someone as being "stupid". as the perceived term of stupid adds to a superiority complex that you falsely observe.

And you should actually do research on ponzi schemes and  financial instruments before you run your mouth off.

Addition in the case of google it was just 10% what you are trying to attempt to do is increase the bitcoin cap size by a magnitude of 15,000% .... and the per year over year loss of bitcoins makes it that much harder to figuratively find out the amount needed for this to happen

Unsure of how its calculated in Totale https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd
seems like total "transfers" .. take into consideration that a majority are not "payments"

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular

https://blockchain.info/charts/trade-volume

Just so you know, you have to be especially dimwitted to think that to reach a market cap of 450billion that 450 billion dollars of investment is needed.

Such a misunderstanding means you also have no idea how the stock market or markets in general work.

Anyone coming out yelling 'bitcoin is a ponzi' is obviously either trolling, three years late to the bitcoin party or plain stupid.

Oki dokie seems a fair response to your output on here.

I guess the only plausible way was to respond with "Okie doke" ??

Side note: Catching a dog with his tail between his legs =[ ... equals no joy or cigar

Okie doke. 

Oh man I can smell the hubris and speculative fluff from your typing ... if you are a true financial analyst please explain to me why you would point that bitcoin isn't a ponzi scheme? (when all the trends and marks of the scheme is imprinted on bitcoin)

Addition: Lols, after reviewing thoroughly of your statement
you do realize that the "4billion USD cap for bitcoin" is realistically around 3 billion right and in order for bitcoin to become anywhere near the size of google... you would need to "pump in" 450+ billion dollars...

Also the way you bullsh-t and type that "if bitcoin was a business" it would get your stamp of approval? please research and google  "South Sea Company" ...

and "bitcoin has no overhead" ... LMFAO what do you call the massive amounts of gpu's and electricity costs?!?! and the depreciative nature of bitcoin

And if you want me to further more break down your statement I can go ahead and do so, but your hyper-bull statements for backing bitcoin is so cringe worthy.

Side note : I have a sneaking suspicion you added "My profession is in commercial financial analysis" to add self worth and credibility to your dimly backed statements.

Additional Side note: from your statements alone I have concluded that you have no credibility as a financial analyst and hope that you really don't imprint your beliefs onto others as that would be breaking ethics and regulatory codes!

It's nothing like a ponzi scheme.


Some simple supply and demand can fuel the increase. In the distant future, bitcoin could be used to sell large tech companies and you can't sell a billion dollar company with bitcoin if the price is only $300 since there's not enough coins to go around.


No, I will not think of a revolutionary new technology that in the future will completely change the way finance is done as a beanie baby.


My profession is in commercial financial analysis. I review business financials and determine their risk and probability of success in the future and ability to repay.  If bitcoin were a company it would have my stamp of approval based on it showing it's increased strength and reliability over the years, continued R&D which is open-source and the best thing... bitcoin has no overhead or debt or bills because it's decentralized. The expansion and success of bitcoin will come from individuals, private companies and investors who believe in the technology.

If you'd like a better understanding of what bitcoin is going to become and overtake, google "3rd party payment processing" and try to create a website that accepts credit payments. It's actually rather difficult and very expensive which is why we see so many people selling their stuff on Etsy and Ebay. Also google "automatic clearing houses", the current outdated system we use that was created in the 70's and is ripe for replacemnet.

wrong.

a ponzi scheme needs new people to come in so the early people can cash out with big profits. with bitcoin the early people eg that got in at single figures or less will do well when selling but the new entrants are not being enticed into buying bitcoins because of some promised artificial future rate of return. the price of bitcoin may be inflated by speculation but again that does not make it a ponzi scheme. finally bitcoin (as a transmission service ) works at any price level.

the commodity issue is also not really an issue either. it may effect the way a country taxes it etc but users adjust to what ever the local factors allow/permit.

bitcoin is slow to get in new users but we still have flakey exchanges and people have to set up wallets etc so it is not a one button click to get involved. but fiat and visa and western union have been long term in the market so it is going to take some time to get some traction. but bitcoin can grow slowly or fast - it matters not. so long as it survives ie no fundamental flaw found it will continue to grow.

But then you knew that before you even posted didn't you.  

You do realize I said commodity contract right .. also right before that I also stated it as a non tangible asset account...

You are cherry picking my statements... and there is a whole crap ton of other commodities you forgot to put in like gold , silver , precious metals etc , and oranges , pigs, etc etc ?

Side note: approx 5% of bitcoins are lost  per annum ( year over year...)  so you are somewhat right about it being lost and you should look into calculating the depreciative value .. Example: type in 20,000,000 - 6 ,000,000(30%) and then do a 5% loss on yield year over year calculation and tell me when you reach 5,000,000 bitcoins

bitcoin a commodity? hardly.
Commodities: wheat, sugar, corn, oil are being CONSUMED
Bitcoin, once "mined', can be used many times, some might say essentially forever (until it is lost)

Sigh, "outside money will come" ...

just like ponzi schemes "money has to come" to fuel price increase, bitcoin is not a liquid asset it is a non tangible asset account / commodity contract at best. All of it is based on backless speculative value...

The dream for 1000+ dollars a bitcoin is a wishful dream, but who will be fueling that price increasing? Are you going to find an outside money source? (banks, inv funds) They currently have marked bitcoin as a commodity , and as such no standard liquid value besides perceived speculative value.          (think of it as the dutch tulips, beanie babies, etc)


side note: for those that want more understanding of "asset classes" google "what is bitcoin classified as"  .. some articles: http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-classified-commodity-finland-central-bank/    |    

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-03-25/bitcoin-is-property-not-currency-in-tax-system-irs-says

I also agree with the main OP thesis that other money will come at ATH.
Not only that, but bitcoin distribution (from bigger wallets/accounts) will also occur then and all the way to the new ATH.
Without ATH coin distribution will stay basically unchanged.

There are cheap bitcoin ATMs now. Buy one of the skyhooks and sell BTC if you really think there's so much demand. There's not.
But there will be once we surpass the old ATH.

Outside money will only come when we make new ATMs, not when we make a new ATH. It's extremely difficult for people to buy Bitcoins, and if we make it easier more people will start buying. When people find out they have to submit scans of bank statements and passports to dodgy exchanges they give up.

Most people want to buy with Paypal when they start off, but if they are lucky enough to find a seller it's usually at double the going rate. If there were ATMs withi easy travelling distance everywhere then more people would start buying. Newcomers just want to go to a shop and buy Bitcoins with cash like they do for everything else (either that or use Paypal).

I don't think doge is really relevant as an analogy here.

I thought Doge was entirely down to the well known pumper Wolong.

http://www.dailydot.com/business/wolong-dogecoin-market-control-trader-bitcoin/

That's about as old as old Bitcoin money gets.

I don't understand. What happened with doge? Doge made an all time high after its launch. Then it never reached it again, right?

I'm saying that a new hype cycle starts when the ATH is passed.

i'm not so sure about this, remember doge? outside money in that case were responsible for the huge increment in the price, and they did built the ath together with chinese willybot or whatever you want to throw in it

one thing is certain only rich people can start a new ath this time, don't expect a new influx of money from average joe...

Yes we can. The halvings will decrease daily supply of new coins. At the same time, growing dark net market activity and remittances will increase the demand. That will get us to $1000. Once $1000 is reached, the hype cycle will begin.

You say: Outside money will only come when we make a new ATH

But you can we reach the ATH again without outside money

Even a Willy bot 2.0 would need some real money