Parabolic blowoff top or Rounded top

RealMalatesta

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Quote from: STT on September 05, 2021, 06:26:40 PM

Fiat sell could just be a means to an end there, I dont know how bullish they are but if they intend to keep forever then thats doesn't preclude the idea of selling. Of course everyone has bills to pay and for most circulation of currency is done via dollar, they might be predicting a transition away from that process such that they no longer have to sell in order to meet liquidity for costs, etc.
Selling to dollars to reduce housing debt is really a fair thing to do, multiple assets classes is the normal strategy for an investment portfolio and the reason volatility in BTC is feared is that it unbalances that idea.
Right now action is quite steady, we might be breaking through a more important area here which is the spring lows to the highest range of BTC that surrounds the ATH. If we do see a break through then the OP question becomes more relevant.

I do not think that it unbalanced that idea at all. I have been a fully all-in crypto investor for years, and for the first time ever in my life I am considering other investments as well, how? All thanks to the money I made in the crypto world, without that income I wouldn't have been possibly considering anything else. Of course, this situation helps bitcoin as much as it hurts it as well. How does it help bitcoin?

If I had nearly nothing at all and moved from there to consider a real estate investment (just a small plot of land that's few thousand dollars, nothing major) then it means we should be all considering bitcoin as a savior of poor people, I had only few dollars in my bank account when I first came in here, and I made a living plus put money aside in thousands (living in a poor nation that means a lot) all thanks to bitcoin. But, the hurting part is the fact that I still want to diversify eventually and get other stuff too.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on September 05, 2021, 03:46:28 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on September 04, 2021, 06:35:55 AM

Frankly, I believe you’re wrong, especially with Microstrategy. Do you actually believe that they bought Bitcoin to simply trade it back to fiat like some of the plebs like us in the forum? Plus why would they wait until December and panic sell like the plebs? They should be selling NOW.

If everything plays out well, Microstrategy will never sell all their coins,

WHEN everything plays out well not IF. How long must the protocol keep running until everyone accepts that Bitcoin will not be going anywhere?

Quote

but it's expected that they will be taking profits from time to time, what's the point of investing if you never sell? And if they will use Bitcoin directly to purchase something, it still counts as "sell".

HyperBitcoinization. Some investors don’t think the same as plebs like us. Ask yourself, “why did Satoshi invent Bitcoin?”

STT

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Fiat sell could just be a means to an end there, I dont know how bullish they are but if they intend to keep forever then thats doesn't preclude the idea of selling. Of course everyone has bills to pay and for most circulation of currency is done via dollar, they might be predicting a transition away from that process such that they no longer have to sell in order to meet liquidity for costs, etc.
Selling to dollars to reduce housing debt is really a fair thing to do, multiple assets classes is the normal strategy for an investment portfolio and the reason volatility in BTC is feared is that it unbalances that idea.
Right now action is quite steady, we might be breaking through a more important area here which is the spring lows to the highest range of BTC that surrounds the ATH. If we do see a break through then the OP question becomes more relevant.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on September 04, 2021, 06:35:55 AM

Frankly, I believe you’re wrong, especially with Microstrategy. Do you actually believe that they bought Bitcoin to simply trade it back to fiat like some of the plebs like us in the forum? Plus why would they wait until December and panic sell like the plebs? They should be selling NOW.

If everything plays out well, Microstrategy will never sell all their coins, but it's expected that they will be taking profits from time to time, what's the point of investing if you never sell? And if they will use Bitcoin directly to purchase something, it still counts as "sell".

teosanru

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Quote from: jamietao on August 30, 2021, 03:58:12 AM

Will we get a parabolic blowoff top or a rounded top or top already in?

I think we will get an underwelming rounded top at around 75k maybe around early 2022.

Those slimey institutional types are going to tap the bloody brakes and will try to front run exit us normies.

I think blow off is going to be even early than that, I don't expect us to break the all time high honestly until we will break the all time high, currently whales are making sure they market look like it's the most bullish time to ever invest in bitcoin and once they are done with this and people form a bullish opinion about bitcoin they are going to sell off some big chunk to catch the Bulls and take away their money, this has been quite a trend now, at 29k, they made sure people think market is bearish and can go even low and now they are doing the entire opposite of that thing.

jostorres

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on September 04, 2021, 06:35:55 AM

Frankly, I believe you’re wrong, especially with Microstrategy. Do you actually believe that they bought Bitcoin to simply trade it back to fiat like some of the plebs like us in the forum? Plus why would they wait until December and panic sell like the plebs? They should be selling NOW.

I fully agree that microstrategy will not sell, they are fully invested into bitcoin and believe that is the path to becoming super wealthy and successful for them. I also think that tesla and grayscale will not sell neither, they made a good enough return from them to not care about what is going on, hell it dropped a lot and even recovered so they have a newly gained respect towards it once again.

In short, anyone who could afford that much bitcoin would never consider selling it because they are making insane returns on that, why would you want to get rid of something that gave you so much money? I would buy even more if I could after seeing the results that they got. I understand that there are accounting stuff that would make it a bit harder to keep them forever but at the end of the day you could hire few more people and keep the profit while making them handle all the extra paper work.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: hugeblack on September 03, 2021, 03:18:57 PM

Frankly, I would not be surprised if Tesla, Microstrategy, or even Grayscale sells at the end of this year, but the question can be determined where the top will be. Personally, I see that any target above $10,000 is considered a top and it is dangerous not to sell at that top, and therefore an 80% correction will lead us to the previous percentage. It is 20%, as the price has never been said below that level.

Generally, the higher the price above $10,000, the higher the probability of an 80% correction.

Frankly, I believe you’re wrong, especially with Microstrategy. Do you actually believe that they bought Bitcoin to simply trade it back to fiat like some of the plebs like us in the forum? Plus why would they wait until December and panic sell like the plebs? They should be selling NOW.

hugeblack

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Frankly, I would not be surprised if Tesla, Microstrategy, or even Grayscale sells at the end of this year, but the question can be determined where the top will be. Personally, I see that any target above $10,000 is considered a top and it is dangerous not to sell at that top, and therefore an 80% correction will lead us to the previous percentage. It is 20%, as the price has never been said below that level.

Generally, the higher the price above $10,000, the higher the probability of an 80% correction.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: beerlover on September 01, 2021, 12:21:59 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on September 01, 2021, 06:35:45 AM

OP has a point, “expect the unexpected”. Because there’s also some probability that Bitcoin’s expected “double blow off top”, a “single blow off top”, or “a rounded top” could be replaced by a continuing surge. After the pandemic in 2022, what does everyone predict would happen? I believe more BRRR money printing. Then what does Bitcoin do?

I am not sure if we will have that kind of money printing ever again. Don't get me wrong I am not saying that everything is alright now, there are still a lot of troubles in the world but I just do not believe that we are in a situation where it is as much of a problem as people think it is.

We are going out, sure we still have a mask on in many nations and states but we are going out, we stay in cafes and drink with friends, we eat outside, we shop outside, we go to work and basically we do everything we used to do except maybe we wear a mask while doing it that's it. This will make governments not give any money to people at all, they may still print money, just to give it to their rich friends but that's about it, they will not be able to convince themselves to give money to poor people ever again.

I’m 100% confident that there will be more situations of BRRRR money printing for 2022, not helicopter money for the people affected by the pandemic, but to bail out failing corporations that are currently being affected by the pandemic.

Devifajarina

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Quote from: jamietao on August 30, 2021, 03:58:12 AM

Will we get a parabolic blowoff top or a rounded top or top already in?

I think we will get an underwelming rounded top at around 75k maybe around early 2022.

Those slimey institutional types are going to tap the bloody brakes and will try to front run exit us normies.

Comfort zone doesn't guarantee that people can get out of trouble, even it will last forever for them, comfortable doesn't mean not in trouble, slimey type institutions will do anything to change the situation, they never worry about the risks that will happen, it's not typical if you haven't found the risk and overcome it. 2022 will be very influential if we are able to prepare this year carefully, then we will enjoy the results in that year, therefore the pattern must be prepared correctly from today.

jamietao

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The current pump is a bit underwelming and some moonboys already calling for a triple peak blowofftop this cycle. This is quite hilarious

beerlover

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on September 01, 2021, 06:35:45 AM

OP has a point, “expect the unexpected”. Because there’s also some probability that Bitcoin’s expected “double blow off top”, a “single blow off top”, or “a rounded top” could be replaced by a continuing surge. After the pandemic in 2022, what does everyone predict would happen? I believe more BRRR money printing. Then what does Bitcoin do?

I am not sure if we will have that kind of money printing ever again. Don't get me wrong I am not saying that everything is alright now, there are still a lot of troubles in the world but I just do not believe that we are in a situation where it is as much of a problem as people think it is.

We are going out, sure we still have a mask on in many nations and states but we are going out, we stay in cafes and drink with friends, we eat outside, we shop outside, we go to work and basically we do everything we used to do except maybe we wear a mask while doing it that's it. This will make governments not give any money to people at all, they may still print money, just to give it to their rich friends but that's about it, they will not be able to convince themselves to give money to poor people ever again.

Wind_FURY

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OP has a point, “expect the unexpected”. Because there’s also some probability that Bitcoin’s expected “double blow off top”, a “single blow off top”, or “a rounded top” could be replaced by a continuing surge. After the pandemic in 2022, what does everyone predict would happen? I believe more BRRR money printing. Then what does Bitcoin do?

slaman29

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Quote from: jamietao on August 31, 2021, 03:48:56 PM

Now I'm 2021, people are looking back and are expecting a massive blowofftop followed by a bear market. So do you think it's gonna happen? You gotta think two steps ahead mate.

Really? I thought the majority of people are now thinking Bitcoin will no longer have those blowoffs, as can be seen even by the opinions here. For me important to see also is the media predictions. Imagine in 2017 and before that, before even 10k price, people were predicting 500k and 1 million.

Now we are 50k and people are just predicting 100k:)

jamietao

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on August 31, 2021, 12:51:57 PM

When Bitcoin goes down, it usually does it very fast. The fact that there has been 3 weeks of a narrow range at the top could also be a bullish sign. It was quite common in the bull markets of the past to have longer periods of stability without growth. The market is undecided for now, but I'm sure that a big move will happen very soon.

Mate you gotta look at the psychology plus the history, not just the history.

Back in 2013 there was a double blowofftop. So in 2016/2017 people were expecting a double blowofftop. Thats why it kept going up and up and up. What happened in the end? Just one big massive long blowofftop, not two. Followed by a very long bear market.

Now I'm 2021, people are looking back and are expecting a massive blowofftop followed by a bear market. So do you think it's gonna happen? You gotta think two steps ahead mate.

hatshepsut93

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When Bitcoin goes down, it usually does it very fast. The fact that there has been 3 weeks of a narrow range at the top could also be a bullish sign. It was quite common in the bull markets of the past to have longer periods of stability without growth. The market is undecided for now, but I'm sure that a big move will happen very soon.

GreatArkansas

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With Bitcoin keep bouncing above $30,000 before when it dropping to below $29,000 is a sign that we could never be back again below $20,000.
And now we are nearer to an all-time-high than $20,000.
So, I am more positive that we will still test the all-time-high, but I am not positive it will happen this year, as I expecting a sideways for Bitcoin for months until end of the year.

jamietao

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Quote from: btc_angela on August 31, 2021, 03:46:40 AM

Then it will invalidated those who predicted that the price will hit 6 digits at the end of the year? Specially his one: Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity.

So we will see, either parabolic blowoff top or a rounded top will not happen as the price will continue to rise to $100k because of institutional investors involvement in the market.

Stock to flow is almost guaranteed to be invalidated. Everyone is looking at it and thats why it won't happen. We won't go past $100k because most people are expecting it to.

Even if only a few people knew about stock to flow, the model itself is flawed. Stock to flow in the tails is not accurate. A Charizard Pokemon card has a fixed supply and a stock to flow of infinite, so stock to flow says the price is infinite. My stained toilet paper also has a fixed supply so stock to flow is infinite. But unfortunately no one would buy it so it's value is $0.

It's demand that is more important in determining price. Stock to flown does not take into account demand at all

btc_angela

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Quote from: jamietao on August 31, 2021, 03:36:27 AM

Quote from: STT on August 31, 2021, 12:38:54 AM

Almost every conventional commodity increases supply as price and margins allow for it, thats just the way of the free market. That means increased supply to some extent is appearing alongside increased demand yet even normal commodities can rise a great amount. BTC deliberately limits supply hence it has a far more rapid price rise when demand appears especially, that usually means we dont back off a trend in demand till its completely exhausted on every time frame.
BTC has a while to go yet, its usually something that spikes up at some point and I did think the 2021 highs were far too calm to be feared in long term consideration.

The market is designed to catch people off guard and is designed to cause the greatest losses to the greatest amount of people. Generally what most people expect to happen doesnt happen for this very reason. The most likely outcome are the unlikely outcomes in my opinion: either rounded top at $75k in early 2022 or double top at $65k in late 2021. Then go sidewards in $30k-$45k for extended period of time.

Then it will invalidated those who predicted that the price will hit 6 digits at the end of the year? Specially his one: Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity.

So we will see, either parabolic blowoff top or a rounded top will not happen as the price will continue to rise to $100k because of institutional investors involvement in the market.

jamietao

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Quote from: STT on August 31, 2021, 12:38:54 AM

Almost every conventional commodity increases supply as price and margins allow for it, thats just the way of the free market. That means increased supply to some extent is appearing alongside increased demand yet even normal commodities can rise a great amount. BTC deliberately limits supply hence it has a far more rapid price rise when demand appears especially, that usually means we dont back off a trend in demand till its completely exhausted on every time frame.
BTC has a while to go yet, its usually something that spikes up at some point and I did think the 2021 highs were far too calm to be feared in long term consideration.

The market is designed to catch people off guard and is designed to cause the greatest losses to the greatest amount of people. Generally what most people expect to happen doesnt happen for this very reason. The most likely outcome are the unlikely outcomes in my opinion: either rounded top at $75k in early 2022 or double top at $65k in late 2021. Then go sidewards in $30k-$45k for extended period of time.

STT

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Almost every conventional commodity increases supply as price and margins allow for it, thats just the way of the free market. That means increased supply to some extent is appearing alongside increased demand yet even normal commodities can rise a great amount. BTC deliberately limits supply hence it has a far more rapid price rise when demand appears especially, that usually means we dont back off a trend in demand till its completely exhausted on every time frame.
BTC has a while to go yet, its usually something that spikes up at some point and I did think the 2021 highs were far too calm to be feared in long term consideration.

slaman29

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Rounded top I think for me. The parabola doesn't look possible anymore, not when we've seen such long time in sideways trading close to the last (current) ATH and so far from the old ATH.

Quote from: jackg on August 30, 2021, 09:30:07 AM

I don't think institutions are stupid enough to srl for short term profits. They might pull out their initial capital at some point when they've got 4x on it but until then, they're probably riding the crypto hype - and there'll be a lot of people buying that sort of news if it's put in a way thst a company invested $4M, pulled out their initial capital and still have $12M at play (because retail will want to do the same).

Institutions capture profits, but never liquidate entirely, if they're long term. Doesn't make sense to pull everything out because they're all about managing risk and taking advantage of booms.

bittraffic

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Quote from: adaseb on August 30, 2021, 11:02:20 PM

Since everybody is always expecting a parabolic blowoff top or bottom, usually the opposite will happen. Back in 2018 look at how many people kept thinking when it dipped below $6K it was a parabolic blowoff bottom and it would reverse, instead it slowly went down to like $3500 and stayed there for a month or two before finally reversing. I think it was the slow bleed to got many people impatient and got them to sell.

With bitcoins top? Who knows. Since people are expecting >$100K sometime in Oct/Nov most likely it won't happen. Its also possible that BTC might have a double top at $65000 since nobody expects that to happen. Usually we form a top, and then when we bounce we go to the 0.50-0.618 fib and then we resume the downtrend, however if we topped at $65000 many would be caught long if it was the top because nobody expects bitcoin to have a double top.

It's always the opposite that will happen when many are expecting it to happen. Looking at the chart today, I still think the market is overly swollen and could still dive to $40K before bouncing again. I can not be very positive for short-term traders, you got to wait for another month before putting back your money into coins.

I'm just going to wait for the ADA events first and see what will happen because I can tell there are big things that will happen after it.

adaseb

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Since everybody is always expecting a parabolic blowoff top or bottom, usually the opposite will happen. Back in 2018 look at how many people kept thinking when it dipped below $6K it was a parabolic blowoff bottom and it would reverse, instead it slowly went down to like $3500 and stayed there for a month or two before finally reversing. I think it was the slow bleed to got many people impatient and got them to sell.

With bitcoins top? Who knows. Since people are expecting >$100K sometime in Oct/Nov most likely it won't happen. Its also possible that BTC might have a double top at $65000 since nobody expects that to happen. Usually we form a top, and then when we bounce we go to the 0.50-0.618 fib and then we resume the downtrend, however if we topped at $65000 many would be caught long if it was the top because nobody expects bitcoin to have a double top.

jamietao

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Quote from: OgNasty on August 30, 2021, 06:49:40 PM

Blowoff top for sure friend. That’s just the way these things play out. Institutional types won’t be selling at all. They’ll sell their shares to regular folks and get paid from collecting management fees while holding Bitcoin. I say $135,000+ in December is still a realistic target.

I think the fact that everyone is expecting a blowoff top is precisely why it won't happen. Everyone seems to have the idea that the cycle HAS to end with a blowoff top because the last 3 times, it did.

If you were a hedge fund and your goal was to maximise risk-adjusted profitability, what would you do, knowing this that everyone is expecting a blowoff top at say $130k+ ? Would you sell when everyone else is selling? Or would you make sure you've left enough space to dump all your bags on the normies. Keep in mind hedge funds, unlike normies, can't go in and out of positions as fast as us normies, because they have large sums of money. They would need to start off loading early. Which will lead to rounded top, as normies buy them bags but quickly gas out since normies alone will not be able to sustain rallies.

OgNasty

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Quote from: jamietao on August 30, 2021, 03:58:12 AM

Will we get a parabolic blowoff top or a rounded top or top already in?

I think we will get an underwelming rounded top at around 75k maybe around early 2022.

Those slimey institutional types are going to tap the bloody brakes and will try to front run exit us normies.

Blowoff top for sure friend. That’s just the way these things play out. Institutional types won’t be selling at all. They’ll sell their shares to regular folks and get paid from collecting management fees while holding Bitcoin. I say $135,000+ in December is still a realistic target.

jamietao

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Quote from: jackg on August 30, 2021, 09:30:07 AM

I don't think institutions are stupid enough to srl for short term profits. They might pull out their initial capital at some point when they've got 4x on it but until then, they're probably riding the crypto hype - and there'll be a lot of people buying that sort of news if it's put in a way thst a company invested $4M, pulled out their initial capital and still have $12M at play (because retail will want to do the same).

Short term profits is exactly what institutions do. They don't buy and hold. If they bought at $20k which is what most institutions did early in the year, then $75k is around 4x which aligns with my target.

My point was they're not going to wait around for a $200k Bitcoin like them moonboys. They want to front run us normies on the way out of their positions. And catch us off guard. They do this bit exiting early. Resulting in a rounded top. Whilst most of us normies will be waiting for a blow off top. End result: institutions end up with profit, normies end up holding bags.

jackg

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I don't think institutions are stupid enough to srl for short term profits. They might pull out their initial capital at some point when they've got 4x on it but until then, they're probably riding the crypto hype - and there'll be a lot of people buying that sort of news if it's put in a way thst a company invested $4M, pulled out their initial capital and still have $12M at play (because retail will want to do the same).

jamietao

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Will we get a parabolic blowoff top or a rounded top or top already in?

I think we will get an underwelming rounded top at around 75k maybe around early 2022.

Those slimey institutional types are going to tap the bloody brakes and will try to front run exit us normies.

Topic: Parabolic blowoff top or Rounded top (Read 203 times)