Topic: People don't understood btc etf exacly - page 2. (Read 429 times)

Yes, if you look at the increase in inflation and the high cost of living, it makes sense now.
but basically investments always experience an increase in value, because that is the basic principle because the amount of money continues to increase, the value of a commodity will always increase.

Whales dont control the price, influence and trade it perhaps and it can show short term before the next wave corrects but the real deal for BTC is going to be that ETF allows the common investor to be involved more easily.  That idea alone could greatly increase the amount of BTC held by the diversity of the audience its available to.   The really big price changes always come from the massive amounts of people doing that trade rather then the idea of 1 big guy with alot of money, they still dont compare to the crowd for movement and power.

Oh yeah, while everyone is certainly just looking at the BTC spot etfs that have been approved, many are forgetting about the futures contracts.

So once these contracts expires then we may see the skyrocketing that's prior to halving and there's also the after-effect of halving which we're all counting just not with the etf that were approved.

How about 2025 which is likely going to be the actual bull run phase? $200k-$250k they say?

Sure it has an influence.

https://www.coindesk.com/learn/2024/01/11/bitcoin-etfs-explained-what-are-they-how-do-they-work/

Investment managers are a band of like minded people. They have certain trust so the paper saying the own a share of the coins in the bag are their won't matter. Getting a share of the private keys it won't be.

Capital look increasingly into places where to store value, More money in lesser hands means that every year more people look to secure their hard earned cash. Bitcoin growing fits nicely into the portfolio of many wealthy people, companies, funds.  

It's too early to analyse the full meaning of ETF is exchange trust funds and some people may not know this but there are other ETF in different countries but USA being a big if not the biggest power house in Crypto-currency their ETF is highly regarded.
And I don't think you are right many investors has let this big companies hold their shares worth billions I don't think they would have any problems with holding Bitcoin.
It may not be instant but the approval of the ETF would affect the price of Bitcoin.

Will bitcoin reach 100k in January? Nope, I don't think so but we will see bitcoin reach 100k in mid 2024 as there are already like you said positive economic indicators.

You know so much about bitcoin and write so well about it that whenever I come across your comments, I secretly wish that I can know half of what you know and write as good as you do. I read your posts from time to time and constantly see how you are able to reply with clarity and precision. (Just a secret admirer here. I am sorry if this seem off-topic but I couldn't help it.)

when 2013 peaked at $1.2k. we did not see the price breach $1.2k until after 2016 halving
when 2017 peaked at $20k. we did not see the price breach $20k until after 2020 halving
when 2021 peaked at $70k .. if patterns remain we wont see price breach $70k until after 2024 halving

other patterns to note
when 2014 corrected from $1.2k peak it then didnt go below the 2011 ($30) peak
when 2018 corrected from $20k peak it then didnt go below the 2013 (1.2k) peak
when 2022 corrected from $70k peak it then did go below the 2017 (20k) peak so pattern did not repeat*

its worth noting that people can calculate a fair value/premium window of world wide mining costs(underlying wholesale market)
hardware using current gen asics hardware spread over 2 years. + electric(rated $0.04-$0.50 /kwh)
using current gen asics of terrahash / network hashrate to calculate number of asics on network average to calculate the value-premium window

2021 seen $10k-$75k window in which the market could speculate inbetween
2022 seen $15k-$95k window in which the market could speculate inbetween
2023 seen $20k-$110k window in which the market could speculate inbetween
2024 see's so far $25k-$140k window in which the market could speculate inbetween

so dont expect large (infueners promoted) $200k-$1m market price
if everyone can mine for under $140k no one on the planet will want to buy for more because most will be mining to sell,

*that said bitcoin economics are separating from underlying value-premium fundamental metrics of mining cost economics due to things like the fee bonus and also whale strategy. so expect the underlying rules of logical/fundamental economics to change

after all since ethereum moved to PoS(causing underlying minting cost to be 20x less per eth, their speculation market broke the logic rules when they then speculated and detached from fundamental logical economics and stayed high based on speculation)

It seems like you are predicting the future of life through it which I would generally never imagine even though everyone would probably see Bitcoin prices at $70k-$100k+. Because today Bitcoin also experienced a very decent price increase with a color correction that always follows, but for the near future I only have hopes for a price of $50K before expecting a price greater than that. Because this range is close enough to be expected so it can be quite logical for everyone even though in the future it is also quite possible to see a price of $70K.

Good for you.
I would be that cocky and believe that most people behave like me.

A whale is technically set at what amount? 200, 400, 800?

technically i am a whale. though i dont really day trade no more nor play these games (sure was fun in 2012-14 days riding the waves and the tides)
but once you know the tactics. you recognise when those tactics are played

Nobody knows whales...its not some Harry Potter story...the whales not actually the way you and most retail people think.
You got to be more deep in game to know

Yes the blue whales i know exacly what about you talking.
But i would say allmost 48k price is protected by them.

firstly, check the data itself
look at the market charts for more simpler answers..
when a market hits a WALL where it abruptly cannot pass. this wall is not natural trading
(do you really think that from (uktime) 8pm jan 8th to 8pm jan 9th having resistance at $47k flatline is natural)

heck we had in 2021-2022 whole weeks and months of unnatural flatline trading due to rubbing resistance walls of whales.
seems 2023-2024 seen most whats are just contracting in 1 day deals instead of one week-one month deals of previous years


next you can check the amount of futures contracts and market depths to see where the "resistance's" / "support's" are
and notice how simultaneously they just disappear at certain times to then allow free flow real market trading to move the price
once contracts conclude

as for knowing whale motivations.. its not a new game. its been going on even in traditional fiat markets. and once you recognise the patterns and see that there are unnatural flat line pricing they keep bumping but not exceeding and then suddenly a large drop to stop the rubbing against the line you start to notice that its the whale tactic at play

I have 2 questions 'cause it makes me wonder:
How many do you know? I mean that they trust you that much to tell you their very moves?

Those people who have been in the crypto scene knows why etf approval is significant hence why they would feel the need to buy more now for those people who are just going with the flow would probably see that bitcoin is increasing so they are just going to buy more regardless if they actually know why the etf approval makes investors to want to acquire more bitcoin

This may be the most logical analysis I have ever heard about the price. I have heard many analyzes indicating a price of 70k or more in January, but I believe that we will remain in an area between 50k and 60k at best. In general, we are still at the beginning of the year and there is a lot of water that will flow under the bridge, so the possibility of reaching 100k is still possible, especially with all the positive economic indicators.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs will increase demand on bitcoin and naturally with supply and demand principle, price will increase with time.

Because supply is the same, demand is bigger, more capital will flow in Bitcoin market, price must increase in long term. If you can understand its long term growth, you must have strong hands to hold your bitcoin. Consider that you hold it as a long term investment, forget about short term news, short term trading, holding will help you to increase your portfolio value.

Just invest with own money, don't sell everything you have to invest because you will not afford to lose everything with your investment.

whales are still locking the price below certain spot price levels to not hurt their futures contracts until they conclude

they dont want it exceeding 47k the last few days

make your topic useful by adding some charts or some time frames, since after 3 hours the price did not react to the news of the US ETF approved. The price may have calculated the amount since the beginning of the rumors, and the reason may be that they are waiting for the markets to open at lunch and start trading. Whatever the reason, it is Something new, and it is normal for people not to know how such news will affect it.

The price went up US$ 600, that is 13 to 14% and not skyhigh.
ETF is back of empty papers and no etf owner will hold a single BITCOIN.