Perhaps the crash was only a correction

legendary

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Quote from: afbitcoins on April 12, 2013, 04:32:58 PM

I started off drawing my lines on linear scales but found they were only accurate for short time periods. Log scale works because the price rise is exponential.

Really because the fundamental indicators are all increasing exponentially. Most relevantly the number of people who even know about Bitcoin, as well as those who have taken the time to learn about Bitcoin.

move_zig

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Quote from: HighInBC on April 12, 2013, 07:54:30 PM

Quote from: move_zig on April 12, 2013, 07:35:27 PM

A linear line on a logarithmic chart is perfectly valid. It indicates a steady rise in value. The angle of the line corresponds to the growth rate.

The thing is that a "line" on a log scale is not a line or an angle, it is a curve.

If it's linear, it has a rise over run. That angle corresponds to a specific constant growth rate.

I'm just trying to explain some math to the people that don't understand the significance of straight lines on log charts.

arepo

sr. member

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this statement is false

everyone's yelling BULLTRAP, but the hands that are buying right know seem pretty damn strong. the big hands waited a long damn while (two-hundred and sixty-six USD? really?) the first time around, why not just pull the pump n dump again, immediately! anyone who wanted to sell already has, and those who are comfortable holding will continue doing so.

i thought bulltrap, too, but that ask depth is soooo thin and the price just keeps stepping up the staircase...

HighInBC

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Quote from: move_zig on April 12, 2013, 07:35:27 PM

A linear line on a logarithmic chart is perfectly valid. It indicates a steady rise in value. The angle of the line corresponds to the growth rate.

The thing is that a "line" on a log scale is not a line or an angle, it is a curve.

move_zig

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A linear line on a logarithmic chart is perfectly valid. It indicates a steady rise in value. The angle of the line corresponds to the growth rate.

evolve

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daytrader/superhero

Quote from: Ichthyo on April 12, 2013, 05:32:03 PM

after an increase of 100% also in just some days?

Don't tell anyone, but thats how bubbles work....

Ichthyo

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you could call it "crash" only in hindsight.
In this case, it must be the start of an large scale downward trend.

All these terms "correction", "dip", "crash" are qualitative to some extent: they express the relation to the whole context.
When a whole market segment performed just average over a long time and then with a single blow gets substantially reduced and then grinds down to a way lower category, than this is another situation as when a single stock, asset or instrument had a short period of completely out-of-range growth, and finishes this period with a set-back.

Odalv

legendary

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Quote from: evolve on April 12, 2013, 05:25:35 PM

Quote from: nebulus on April 12, 2013, 05:23:44 PM

I don't understand why people call this a crash.

Maybe the 75% drop in value within 2 days?

why not ?

Ichthyo

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Quote from: evolve on April 12, 2013, 05:25:35 PM

Quote from: nebulus on April 12, 2013, 05:23:44 PM

I don't understand why people call this a crash.

Maybe the 75% drop in value within 2 days?

after an increase of 100% also in just some days?

evolve

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daytrader/superhero

Quote from: nebulus on April 12, 2013, 05:23:44 PM

I don't understand why people call this a crash.

Maybe the 75% drop in value within 2 days?

nebulus

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... it only gets better...

I don't understand why people call this a crash. Somebody just had a lot of bit coin to fill a lot of pending orders. A thing of the sort has a different name.

thefiniteidea

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"In Us We Trust"

Quote from: Kazu on April 12, 2013, 03:00:07 PM

Forgive me if I am being dense, but isn't the entire point of a log scale is to make trend lines drawable?

It helps with trends that rise exponentially, like Bitcoin. But no, that is not the entire point, nor is it really the basis of log charts.

Quote from: afbitcoins on April 12, 2013, 04:29:35 PM

Quote from: M4v3R on April 12, 2013, 10:07:52 AM

Way to draw support lines exactly as they fit you.

Thats where they fit the data. I drew that line in the same place all through February. Check my blog if you don't believe me Huh

You're chart may not prove anything in terms of future price (no one can?!), but what's certain is that you don't need to worry about responses from internet-children who can not see things that are blatantly apparent to everyone else Cheesy

Wuji

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Quote from: ManBearPig on April 12, 2013, 06:15:39 AM

Sorry to repeat myself:

$83 or so was on March 23rd an inflection point where we kicked into a higher rate of exponential growth.

This is where things got unsustainable and people started screaming "Bubble!" or if they were doing so already, shouting it even louder.

If we see the price dip and gravitate loosely around this point in the next few days we would be on a previous upward trend which stretched from Jan 9th to March 23rd and to some degree, beyond.

Bear in mind we are seeing a decent-sized bid wall at $76 and that the ask wall isn't so much a wall as a gentle ramp.

Pick your entry point, gird your loins and ride this up.

Actually most investors I talk to were screaming Bubble based on the run up from Jan to Mar. 17th (after that they were just saying tulips). They are interested in tangible commodities and not virtual commodities. When BTC is adopted as a currency and passes the regulation litmus tests then I expect it to go sky high. Until then I don't think most real investors are taking this seriously or even getting involved (none I have known for 10+ years are). I only bought in below $14 a long time ago because I'm a computer guy and think it is a cool idea.

afbitcoins

legendary

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I started off drawing my lines on linear scales but found they were only accurate for short time periods. Log scale works because the price rise is exponential.

afbitcoins

legendary

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Quote from: M4v3R on April 12, 2013, 10:07:52 AM

Way to draw support lines exactly as they fit you.

Thats where they fit the data. I drew that line in the same place all through February. Check my blog if you don't believe me Huh

Kazu

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Forgive me if I am being dense, but isn't the entire point of a log scale is to make trend lines drawable?

ManBearPig

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"Don't go in the trollbox, trollbox, trollbox"

Quote from: arepo on April 12, 2013, 01:33:27 PM

Quote from: flaab on April 12, 2013, 01:24:35 PM

You can't draw support / resistance lines on log scale charts. Try linear chart...
[SNIPPED HUMONGOUS IMAGE]

stop spamming that worthless chart. it's taken completely out of context and has no predictive power.

also, why can't you draw trend lines on log scales?

THIS

arepo

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this statement is false

Quote from: flaab on April 12, 2013, 01:24:35 PM

You can't draw support / resistance lines on log scale charts. Try linear chart...
[SNIPPED HUMONGOUS IMAGE]

stop spamming that worthless chart. it's taken completely out of context and has no predictive power.

also, why can't you draw trend lines on log scales?

flaab

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You can't draw support / resistance lines on log scale charts. Try linear chart...

Zangelbert Bingledack

legendary

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Quote from: SomeWhere on April 12, 2013, 06:36:00 AM

Quote from: ManBearPig on April 12, 2013, 06:15:39 AM

Sorry to repeat myself:

$83 or so was on March 23rd an inflection point where we kicked into a higher rate of exponential growth.

This is where things got unsustainable and people started screaming "Bubble!" or if they were doing so already, shouting it even louder.

If we see the price dip and gravitate loosely around this point in the next few days we would be on a previous upward trend which stretched from Jan 9th to March 23rd and to some degree, beyond.

Bear in mind we are seeing a decent-sized bid wall at $76 and that the ask wall isn't so much a wall as a gentle ramp.

Pick your entry point, gird your loins and ride this up.

That's exactly what I was thinking the whole time. I just missed my exit point, because I predicted it at 400-600. Now, all I can do is hold Wink

.

Great minds think alike Wink

I think we will simply return to exponential growth along the original channel OP described here earlier (the black channel). As I said in the original thread, whenever we start wafting above the top of the black channel, the price becomes sensitive to any old reason to crash back down into the channel. If we correct below the bottom of the channel it will be time to worry.

Until then, I'll be yawning like a pro.

Topic: Perhaps the crash was only a correction (Read 2915 times)