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Topic: Pessimist's Exponent - page 2. (Read 2557 times)

sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 251
A Trader & An Investor
March 23, 2017, 02:45:27 AM
#11
A slow steady growth based on adoption would be much better than massive pumps by few traders. Right now it would be hard to predict the price of bitcoin with great accuracy and I don't think any nation will ban bitcoin. However, they will look to impose restrictions, tax and other fees on bitcoin.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 500
March 23, 2017, 02:42:30 AM
#10
Hopefully, the craziness of 2013/2014 is behind us.

Last 2 years is a long enough and quiet enough period that we could start looking for patterns.

Bitcoin will grow exponentially, the marketcap is still tiny compared to any serious big company, so we are going to experience massive price increases, but the volatility of the 2013 is over, but that does not mean a pump to $5,000 with a correction of $3,000 isn't possible, but as you can see in terms of % is not as brutal of a correction as $1163 to $100.
That growth will still depend on a lot of things. Bitcoin, having only a market cap of about $17B as of the moment, is relatively small and has shown its potential to reach new highs every so often although a couple of weeks ago, we were sitting at the $20B market cap. All these FUD at the moment might soon be forgotten once we see the price calm down and ascend to your targets faster than expected.
legendary
Activity: 2091
Merit: 1461
We choose to go to the moon
March 23, 2017, 02:17:51 AM
#9
Update. We're closer to the red line, but still above it.



legendary
Activity: 868
Merit: 1004
March 03, 2017, 02:10:08 PM
#8
Hopefully, the craziness of 2013/2014 is behind us.

Last 2 years is a long enough and quiet enough period that we could start looking for patterns.

Bitcoin will grow exponentially, the marketcap is still tiny compared to any serious big company, so we are going to experience massive price increases, but the volatility of the 2013 is over, but that does not mean a pump to $5,000 with a correction of $3,000 isn't possible, but as you can see in terms of % is not as brutal of a correction as $1163 to $100.
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3014
Welt Am Draht
March 03, 2017, 12:07:36 PM
#7
It's easy to say it should be 2k based on the past but the problem is there's no telling how quickly or slowly it will rise with different economic or political turmoil.

What if bitcoins are illegal in China and the US in 2018? The price would tank!

US yes. China no. China has already wiped itself out market wise. If the mining goes then that's a positive development for Bitcoin''s future.
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1042
March 03, 2017, 10:15:43 AM
#6
It's easy to say it should be 2k based on the past but the problem is there's no telling how quickly or slowly it will rise with different economic or political turmoil.

What if bitcoins are illegal in China and the US in 2018? The price would tank!
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1000
March 03, 2017, 10:03:00 AM
#5
Did you forgot about 2013 and 2014?
The bticoin price was $1216 back in November 2013 and after the Gox hack it went back to $90.
Bitcoin is doing pretty well for the last 2 years,but we have to be ready for disasters.
By the way i think that the optimists beleive in exponential growth,not pesimists. 

2013 was an outlier and so was the crash in 2014. We didn't reach $10K after reaching $1200 in 2013.
There was a correction. Now the growth is more gradual. If adoption kicks off, the growth can be exponential in the future.  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2091
Merit: 1461
We choose to go to the moon
March 03, 2017, 08:31:29 AM
#4
Hopefully, the craziness of 2013/2014 is behind us.

Last 2 years is a long enough and quiet enough period that we could start looking for patterns.
hero member
Activity: 2968
Merit: 913
March 03, 2017, 08:14:05 AM
#3
Did you forgot about 2013 and 2014?
The bticoin price was $1216 back in November 2013 and after the Gox hack it went back to $90.
Bitcoin is doing pretty well for the last 2 years,but we have to be ready for disasters.
By the way i think that the optimists beleive in exponential growth,not pesimists. 
legendary
Activity: 2091
Merit: 1461
We choose to go to the moon
March 03, 2017, 08:01:30 AM
#2
Real price as a percentage of our low estimate.

legendary
Activity: 2091
Merit: 1461
We choose to go to the moon
March 02, 2017, 03:36:18 PM
#1
Exponential growth based on low prices, ignoring highs.

For data, I used BTC-e prices from bitcoinity. Two datapoints are enough to define an exponent, so I choose two dates during relatively low/quiet times:

2015 oct 1, $235

2016 oct 1, $608

And here's the result:



So a pessimist (who believes in exponential growth Cheesy ) should expect $2000 at the very end of 2017, and $5000 at the end of 2018.

Enjoy!
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