Topic: Pessimist's Exponent - page 2. (Read 2582 times)
A slow steady growth based on adoption would be much better than massive pumps by few traders. Right now it would be hard to predict the price of bitcoin with great accuracy and I don't think any nation will ban bitcoin. However, they will look to impose restrictions, tax and other fees on bitcoin.
Hopefully, the craziness of 2013/2014 is behind us.
Last 2 years is a long enough and quiet enough period that we could start looking for patterns.
Last 2 years is a long enough and quiet enough period that we could start looking for patterns.
Bitcoin will grow exponentially, the marketcap is still tiny compared to any serious big company, so we are going to experience massive price increases, but the volatility of the 2013 is over, but that does not mean a pump to $5,000 with a correction of $3,000 isn't possible, but as you can see in terms of % is not as brutal of a correction as $1163 to $100.
Update. We're closer to the red line, but still above it.
Hopefully, the craziness of 2013/2014 is behind us.
Last 2 years is a long enough and quiet enough period that we could start looking for patterns.
Last 2 years is a long enough and quiet enough period that we could start looking for patterns.
Bitcoin will grow exponentially, the marketcap is still tiny compared to any serious big company, so we are going to experience massive price increases, but the volatility of the 2013 is over, but that does not mean a pump to $5,000 with a correction of $3,000 isn't possible, but as you can see in terms of % is not as brutal of a correction as $1163 to $100.
It's easy to say it should be 2k based on the past but the problem is there's no telling how quickly or slowly it will rise with different economic or political turmoil.
What if bitcoins are illegal in China and the US in 2018? The price would tank!
What if bitcoins are illegal in China and the US in 2018? The price would tank!
US yes. China no. China has already wiped itself out market wise. If the mining goes then that's a positive development for Bitcoin''s future.
It's easy to say it should be 2k based on the past but the problem is there's no telling how quickly or slowly it will rise with different economic or political turmoil.
What if bitcoins are illegal in China and the US in 2018? The price would tank!
What if bitcoins are illegal in China and the US in 2018? The price would tank!
Did you forgot about 2013 and 2014?
The bticoin price was $1216 back in November 2013 and after the Gox hack it went back to $90.
Bitcoin is doing pretty well for the last 2 years,but we have to be ready for disasters.
By the way i think that the optimists beleive in exponential growth,not pesimists.
The bticoin price was $1216 back in November 2013 and after the Gox hack it went back to $90.
Bitcoin is doing pretty well for the last 2 years,but we have to be ready for disasters.
By the way i think that the optimists beleive in exponential growth,not pesimists.
2013 was an outlier and so was the crash in 2014. We didn't reach $10K after reaching $1200 in 2013.
There was a correction. Now the growth is more gradual. If adoption kicks off, the growth can be exponential in the future.
Hopefully, the craziness of 2013/2014 is behind us.
Last 2 years is a long enough and quiet enough period that we could start looking for patterns.
Last 2 years is a long enough and quiet enough period that we could start looking for patterns.
Did you forgot about 2013 and 2014?
The bticoin price was $1216 back in November 2013 and after the Gox hack it went back to $90.
Bitcoin is doing pretty well for the last 2 years,but we have to be ready for disasters.
By the way i think that the optimists beleive in exponential growth,not pesimists.
The bticoin price was $1216 back in November 2013 and after the Gox hack it went back to $90.
Bitcoin is doing pretty well for the last 2 years,but we have to be ready for disasters.
By the way i think that the optimists beleive in exponential growth,not pesimists.
Real price as a percentage of our low estimate.
Exponential growth based on low prices, ignoring highs.
For data, I used BTC-e prices from bitcoinity. Two datapoints are enough to define an exponent, so I choose two dates during relatively low/quiet times:
2015 oct 1, $235
2016 oct 1, $608
And here's the result:
So a pessimist (who believes in exponential growth
) should expect $2000 at the very end of 2017, and $5000 at the end of 2018.
Enjoy!
For data, I used BTC-e prices from bitcoinity. Two datapoints are enough to define an exponent, so I choose two dates during relatively low/quiet times:
2015 oct 1, $235
2016 oct 1, $608
And here's the result:
So a pessimist (who believes in exponential growth
) should expect $2000 at the very end of 2017, and $5000 at the end of 2018.Enjoy!
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