Please GUESS!! | Bitcointalksearch.org

nahtnam

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Quote from: BurtW on September 18, 2013, 02:22:30 PM

Quote from: superdry on September 18, 2013, 01:27:10 PM

It will be much sooner - my guess is as soon as 2020

How do you figure? By design the difficulty will adjust up or down to make the last 0.00000001 BTC arrive in about 2140. Why would you think that the algorithm would be off by more than 100 years? On or two years off one way or the other, maybe. 120 years off - no way.

Quote from: marcotheminer on September 18, 2013, 05:11:58 AM

You seem so sure of yourself. Either way youre probably going to be dead by the time it happens so either way you wouldnt pay up!

Yes, we will all be dead by then. My point exactly. I can make all sorts of claims and predictions about what is going to happen over 100 years from now and, since we will all be dead by then, these predictions that far out do not matter.

Haha I will give you 10000000 btc in 1000000 years

zeraTunerse

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Quote from: Singlebyte on September 17, 2013, 09:22:07 PM

I think me and Dabs are the closest and we should split the prize!

I disagree, we have to wait in the spirit of fairness to be sure your closest Tongue

BurtW

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All paid signature campaigns should be banned.

Quote from: superdry on September 18, 2013, 01:27:10 PM

It will be much sooner - my guess is as soon as 2020

How do you figure? By design the difficulty will adjust up or down to make the last 0.00000001 BTC arrive in about 2140. Why would you think that the algorithm would be off by more than 100 years? On or two years off one way or the other, maybe. 120 years off - no way.

Quote from: marcotheminer on September 18, 2013, 05:11:58 AM

You seem so sure of yourself. Either way youre probably going to be dead by the time it happens so either way you wouldnt pay up!

Yes, we will all be dead by then. My point exactly. I can make all sorts of claims and predictions about what is going to happen over 100 years from now and, since we will all be dead by then, these predictions that far out do not matter.

superdry

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It will be much sooner - my guess is as soon as 2020

Welsh

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2141.

marcotheminer

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┴puoʎǝq ʞool┴

Quote from: BurtW on September 17, 2013, 09:54:14 PM

The final 0.00000001 BTC will be mined on March 2, 2138.

You can hold me to that. If it does not happen on that exact date ~~look~~ dig me up and I will give you $1000 worth of BTC. Of course that will be exactly 0.00001 BTC on that date. You can hold me to that also.

You seem so sure of yourself. Either way youre probably going to be dead by the time it happens so either way you wouldnt pay up!

nahtnam

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nahtnam.com

Quote from: superdry on September 17, 2013, 08:27:01 PM

Haha I wish I had the money to give away! I will be held to a 0.10 Bitcoin giveaway if someone guesses the correct date though. And obviously that means guessing the date long before the end - not a few days before!

So who is Stunna and can we get in touch with him? This will be a great way to get publicity for anyones website if a prize is offered... Well more than my .10 Bitcoin anyway!

Stunna is the creator of primedice and gives away a lot of money... He is already doing a lot of giveaways, and getting a lot of publicity...

Singlebyte

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Quote from: BurtW on September 17, 2013, 09:54:14 PM

The final 0.00000001 BTC will be mined on March 2, 2138.

You can hold me to that. If it does not happen on that exact date ~~look~~ dig me up and I will give you $1000 worth of BTC. Of course that will be exactly 0.00001 BTC on that date. You can hold me to that also.

Burtw is essentially right. Most (98%) of the "complete" bitcoins will be mined by 2050. So by 2140 there will essentially only be a satoshi or two. As the block rewards keep getting cut in half, the last fifty years you are slicing fractions of a bitcoin. This argument has been discussed several times, but this thread link has some charts which may put it more into perspective for some members:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/the-2140-end-of-new-bitcoins-235926

superdry

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Ill just get my diary...

BurtW

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All paid signature campaigns should be banned.

The final 0.00000001 BTC will be mined on March 2, 2138.

You can hold me to that. If it does not happen on that exact date ~~look~~ dig me up and I will give you $1000 worth of BTC. Of course that will be exactly 0.00001 BTC on that date. You can hold me to that also.

superdry

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so you guess 2018?

viboracecata

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Varanida : Fair & Transparent Digital Ecosystem

The difficulty is growing, but meantime the mining rig evolves as fast, as common said, the time would be 5 years later.

Birdy

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Quote from: Singlebyte on September 17, 2013, 09:22:07 PM

Quote from: Birdy on September 17, 2013, 08:41:45 PM

You will have to wait at least 50+ years until the giveaway then...
The block reward halves after a certain amount of Bitcoins are mined, so it will take very long until the last rewards are given.

Not sure why you first posted only 50+ years and now you are guessing 2120 (100+ years). You seem to have a knowledge how it works but your first guess was way off.

I think me and Dabs are the closest and we should split the prize!

The first one wasn't supposed to be a guess, it was more like "there is no way it could be less than 50 years/any time soon"

I would bet that you are more than 10 years off with your estimation, but we will not be around anymore to find that out, I guess xD

Singlebyte

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Quote from: Birdy on September 17, 2013, 08:41:45 PM

You will have to wait at least 50+ years until the giveaway then...
The block reward halves after a certain amount of Bitcoins are mined, so it will take very long until the last rewards are given.

Not sure why you first posted only 50+ years and now you are guessing 2120 (100+ years). You seem to have a knowledge how it works but your first guess was way off.

I think me and Dabs are the closest and we should split the prize!

superdry

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Where are the details?

Dabs

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The Concierge of Crypto

Quote from: superdry on September 17, 2013, 09:14:21 PM

Dabs are you debs from JUST DICE?

No I am not. Debs is the girlfriend of dooglus.

Buy a ticket to my lotto. 1 BTC jackpot.

Birdy

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Quote from: Singlebyte on September 17, 2013, 09:04:38 PM

Quote from: Birdy on September 17, 2013, 08:59:40 PM

Quote from: Singlebyte on September 17, 2013, 08:53:29 PM

2140

False, it will be ealier than 2140 ^^
Network power is more likely to grow than to drop and difficulty adjustments lag behind.

The difficulty adjusts to keep in line with the 2140 goal. There may be some variance near the end.....but network power is factored into the equation. As network power increases, so does difficulty to keep the inflation at its calculated date.

When the adjustment happens there are already some days zapped away from the goal. (or added in case the network power drops, but that is way more unlikely)

superdry

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Dabs are you debs from JUST DICE?

Dabs

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The Concierge of Crypto

2139.

Singlebyte

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Quote from: Birdy on September 17, 2013, 08:59:40 PM

Quote from: Singlebyte on September 17, 2013, 08:53:29 PM

2140

False, it will be ealier than 2140 ^^
Network power is more likely to grow than to drop and difficulty adjustments lag behind.

The difficulty adjusts to keep in line with the 2140 goal. There may be some variance near the end.....but network power is factored into the equation. As network power increases, so does difficulty to keep the inflation at its calculated date.

2120 may be realistic near the end of mining but I doubt. I know network power is out pacing difficulty and there is a lag. But it is nowhere where these users are predicting. None of us will know however because it is beyond our lifetime (unless life expectancy increase with new innovation!)

Topic: Please GUESS!! (Read 1268 times)