Plustoken owners may be driving down the price of bitcoin - Chainanalysis blog

nutildah

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Turns out this was a much bigger affair then previously let on.

Quote from: BrewMaster on December 17, 2019, 11:02:10 AM

first of all if they are using mixers then a blockchain analyzer has no way of knowing where the coins are really going to. so they can not really make the conclusion that they are selling on the market and crashing the price. for all we know they are converting it to monero...

That's not exactly true... There's way of tracing coins other than through following their addresses. Sometimes outputs have similar characteristics such as size, timestamp when moved, and their eventual destination. If 5,000 coins are all put into ChipMixer at the same time and 5,000 coins end up moving all to the same final address however many weeks later, its safe to say those belong to the same owner.

Regardless, Chainalysis didn't actually use the word "Chipmixer," they focused more on Wasabi wallet, and this image demonstrates just how futile their efforts were:

mindrust

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The business at chipmixer must be boomin

FanEagle

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If the stories are true and they have manage to get away with 2 billion that would have been a bigger news than just a topic here. We are talking about 2 billion dollars! Just to rephrase that, less money (like under 100 million) stolen in anywhere around the world makes headlines globally, if someone steals 100 million dollars in anywhere around the world, you will hear about it on your national news channels for sure and no way it can be hidden.

We are talking about 2 billion dollars here, 2 BILLION, with a B. However if that was the case, even after that they would have hard time keep mixing it because they would have been either found or even maybe murdered for their money. Now to be able to steal 2 billion + get jailed + still go through mixers is basically impossible.

panganib999

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Quote from: exstasie on December 23, 2019, 02:51:48 PM

There are millions of bullish and bearish factors affecting price at any given time. This Plus Token supply supposedly being dumped onto the market is just one additional bearish factor. I believe there is strong demand and heavy accumulation occurring in this sub-$8K range, which is mitigating those bearish effects.

Well, that's the point. A 25k BTC dump isn't enough to affect the market because of the simple fact that there are more bullish and bearish factors involved. The foundation of BTC at that point in time was strong enough to counter the 25k BTC dump as well as the unknown amount of BTC that was dumped by the scammers themselves, which has not been tracked yet. It may have caused a drop that affected the BTC till now, it just simply means that more supply was made available and could be made the reason as to why BTC still hasn't pushed for a bull run yet, right?

1Referee

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Quote from: Wexlike on December 24, 2019, 05:21:37 AM

I enjoy the changing of the ownership of these coins from scammers to holders/investors. Many friends are not done investing yet. So further low prices are very useful for them.

Nothing to enjoy about that because it enriches scammers. All that money (liquidity) is being withdrawn from this ecosystem. It's not going to get pumped back into crypto, otherwise they would just sit on their coins and not convert anything. They don't give a shit about what they do to this space. They want their pockets to be filled with fiat at all cost.

It wouldn't even surprise me if the same group (whatever is left of them) will repeat the same scam when there is another bull run going on, because that's when people are the easiest to convince to invest in outright scams. People here never learn from anything that happened in the past. Probably the easiest victims to scam, hence the reason some of these scams generate hundreds of millions with little effort.

Wexlike

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Quote from: avikz on December 17, 2019, 01:19:07 AM

While the impact on the bitcoin price is still unknown, but when the market is flooded with 20k plus bitcoin, it is possible to drive down the price at least to some extent.

Share your thoughts!

I enjoy the changing of the ownership of these coins from scammers to holders/investors. Many friends are not done investing yet. So further low prices are very useful for them.

exstasie

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on December 24, 2019, 01:53:20 AM

Quote from: exstasie on December 23, 2019, 04:48:23 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on December 23, 2019, 04:34:56 AM

FUD! Bitcoin's daily trading volume is more than 10 billion. The market can take it.. What we're seeing is the natural cycle from bull to bear.

Most of that volume is fake.

But how much of the volume is fake? Almost 100% of it? Bitcoin's reported total daily volume is over 20 billion.

Reduce that $10 billion by a factor of 10 and I think we're in a more realistic range. I don't think much has changed since this report was published: https://twitter.com/BitwiseInvest/status/1109114665240616962

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: exstasie on December 23, 2019, 04:48:23 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on December 23, 2019, 04:34:56 AM

FUD! Bitcoin's daily trading volume is more than 10 billion. The market can take it.. What we're seeing is the natural cycle from bull to bear.

Most of that volume is fake.

We also have no idea how thin OTC liquidity is. I would assume during bear market conditions (like the past few months) that OTC demand is pretty thin. That would cause excess OTC supply to be dumped onto exchanges. In this case that means Okex, Huobi and similar Chinese-facing platforms. Arbitrage among the other major spot exchanges handles the rest.

Anything that involves tens of thousands of BTC hitting spot exchanges will affect the price.

But how much of the volume is fake? Almost 100% of it? Bitcoin's reported total daily volume is over 20 billion.

milewilda

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Quote from: BrewMaster on December 17, 2019, 11:02:10 AM

yet another contradictory article but yet another chain analysis company that is trying to say "hay we are good at blockchain analysis" .

first of all if they are using mixers then a blockchain analyzer has no way of knowing where the coins are really going to. so they can not really make the conclusion that they are selling on the market and crashing the price. for all we know they are converting it to monero...

secondly according to the article they are using OTC brokers to sell their coins, again OTC sells do NOT affect the bitcoin price to cause any kind of drop like we had since it is off the exchanges and the coins don't usually end up on exchanges anyways.
as for Huobi their volume rise is exactly similar to other exchanges' volume rise even smaller. so it can't be linked to these dumps.

and finally although 25k bitcoin (which the article claims were sold) is a big amount it is still not something that could cause a drama like this unless it was dumped as a coordinated act on the top major bitcoin exchanges such as Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp and Bitfinex. otherwise selling over the counter, exchanging for anon coins,... is not affecting bitcoin price at all.

Most people do miss out this very basic scenario when it comes to OTC sells.Im not really that too much concern if there are several news about Bitcoin hacks or stole into its users.
25k is indeed a big amount but we cant sure on where these coins ended from neither being hold or being sold on otc or exchangers. For now the price havent reacted to dump
but rather we are seeing clinging up.I dont really buy to those Blockchain analysis experts words though.

exstasie

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Quote from: panganib999 on December 23, 2019, 10:55:18 AM

If the market was really driven down from $10k to$ 8k cause of the ponzi scheme of Plustoken, then isn't the effect of 25k BTC quite weak?

There are millions of bullish and bearish factors affecting price at any given time. This Plus Token supply supposedly being dumped onto the market is just one additional bearish factor. I believe there is strong demand and heavy accumulation occurring in this sub-$8K range, which is mitigating those bearish effects.

panganib999

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If the market was really driven down from $10k to$ 8k cause of the ponzi scheme of Plustoken, then isn't the effect of 25k BTC quite weak? Since the tracked 40k BTC is only a part of the original BTC that they scammed of users, then we can assume that the dumped amount should be greater than 25k. Seeing as BTC is actually holding up at $7k and above and just dumps to below 7k every now and then, we could pretty much say that BTC market has a pretty song foundation that such an amount isn't able to shake it by too much. I'd say if only they dump around 20-30% of the total BTC they have to the market right now, will it have a huge effect, like a huge dump all at once.

darkangel11

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If they are really dumping and the market still manages to stay in a very slow downtrend it's great and we should be bullish.
So Bitcoin lost 10% in a month due to this ponzi dumping and then recovered. Since the beginning of the ponzi dump we've reached a double bottom followed by a recovery. Think of how it would look without the ponzi money keeping us down. The bullishness is in the air. Somebody had to buy all that ponzi coins and more to take us back to 7k

Febo

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Quote from: avikz on December 17, 2019, 01:19:07 AM

China based plus token is now a widely known scam. It is estimated that they have stolen cryptos worth $2 Billion USD. While six people was arrested by China Police, but their funds are still on the move with extensive use of mixers. Read the full analysis below,

When someone steal someones Bitcoin nothing really change monetary. There is still same amount of supply. Same amount of Bitcoin in existence. Just some part have different owner. Since Bitcoin have transparent ledger and those stolen Bitcoins can easily be traced, that makes them way less liquid and that should reduce supply. So price should be higher and now lower.

Wexnident

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With only 40k BTC being tracked, I doubt their analysis could hold up with the movements of BTC from September to now. Yes, it could plausibly be possible that they haven't tracked the rest yet and these untracked ones are the causes of the recent price movements of BTC, with the incomplete data they have, they can't possibly assume it so early on. 25k could only attack the market if they actually dropped it all of en masse. Seeing as how they slowly cashed it out, I doubt that the dumps could be largely related to it, could be a part of it but in the end, it is still part of the market movement right?

exstasie

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on December 23, 2019, 04:34:56 AM

FUD! Bitcoin's daily trading volume is more than 10 billion. The market can take it.. What we're seeing is the natural cycle from bull to bear.

Most of that volume is fake.

We also have no idea how thin OTC liquidity is. I would assume during bear market conditions (like the past few months) that OTC demand is pretty thin. That would cause excess OTC supply to be dumped onto exchanges. In this case that means Okex, Huobi and similar Chinese-facing platforms. Arbitrage among the other major spot exchanges handles the rest.

Anything that involves tens of thousands of BTC hitting spot exchanges will affect the price.

Wind_FURY

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FUD! Bitcoin's daily trading volume is more than 10 billion. The market can take it.. What we're seeing is the natural cycle from bull to bear.

BitHodler

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It doesn't matter why the price is going down, it never has. Whoever the sellers are, they can't keep selling endlessly, so people are better focusing on dollar cost averaging on the way down before they regret not having bought any coins.

How much worse can it get? We have had only a few month bull run instead of a multi year bull market. In this specific case there are fewer sellers to shake off so it makes sense that we don't see the price pull off another 80-90% correction.

ecnalubma

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Quote from: avikz on December 17, 2019, 01:19:07 AM

China based plus token is now a widely known scam. It is estimated that they have stolen cryptos worth $2 Billion USD. While six people was arrested by China Police, but their funds are still on the move with extensive use of mixers. Read the full analysis below,

https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/plustoken-scam-bitcoin-price

While the impact on the bitcoin price is still unknown, but when the market is flooded with 20k plus bitcoin, it is possible to drive down the price at least to some extent.

Share your thoughts!

Aside from mixed market emotions, this one could heavily affected the market price today that $2 billion fund could really shaken the market. Will call it just another day in crypto after the panic that would not last long we could probably expect a healthy bounce in few days.

BrewMaster

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There is trouble abrewing

yet another contradictory article but yet another chain analysis company that is trying to say "hay we are good at blockchain analysis" .

first of all if they are using mixers then a blockchain analyzer has no way of knowing where the coins are really going to. so they can not really make the conclusion that they are selling on the market and crashing the price. for all we know they are converting it to monero...

secondly according to the article they are using OTC brokers to sell their coins, again OTC sells do NOT affect the bitcoin price to cause any kind of drop like we had since it is off the exchanges and the coins don't usually end up on exchanges anyways.
as for Huobi their volume rise is exactly similar to other exchanges' volume rise even smaller. so it can't be linked to these dumps.

and finally although 25k bitcoin (which the article claims were sold) is a big amount it is still not something that could cause a drama like this unless it was dumped as a coordinated act on the top major bitcoin exchanges such as Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp and Bitfinex. otherwise selling over the counter, exchanging for anon coins,... is not affecting bitcoin price at all.

Lucius

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It is a really big quantity of coins, and $2 billion in value is really something that puts this scam at the very top. Research shows that there is a connection between dumps of those coins and the price of BTC. Therefore, it is realistic to expect that the rest of the coin will be sold sooner or later, and in a situation where we have a very sensitive market, it could really bring down the price.

What I don't understand about this story is the fact that the addresses where the coins are located are known, as well as the modes used for payments. Has anyone tried to report these addresses and freeze them? It is also more than obvious that the Chinese authorities did not cut off the snake's head, but only the tail. I hope that those caught will be punished properly under the strict rules of the Communist Party.

Topic: Plustoken owners may be driving down the price of bitcoin - Chainanalysis blog (Read 291 times)