Topic: PnF TA - page 79. (Read 190669 times)

Really? Is $320 that crucial?

It wont repeat.  Last summer bitcoin had convex PSAR,  now it has concave PSAR (1w graph). It is moon time now.  Is it good?  Depends on which side you are...

PnF me some USD then,

Do you know when the big sell off started the previous summer (from the 685$ high to 165$ bottom)? August 11th!

It made a nice double top 685$ and 665$ and the rest is history...
Will it repeat itself (315 and 305?)?

kLee I would suggest that when the locality focused PnF becomes noisy and you are unclear, then back out to macro information for support:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11954651

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11972132

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11976538

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11972592

If we make a reversal (3Os at 280) before we move more up I am very undecided on what to do.

Open long at support there or short at the bounce at 285?

I will decide based on the circumstances again...

I will start opening small longs in every fall (above 300) if we hit 308. I will watch closely for 315 and if not broken in volume I may sell. Hard to say what I will do in this scenario, will have to see & decide live based on the circumstances).

I opened a small position at 291 and will sell if I see it weak up to 315.

Same scenario you have in mind if we fail to break 315?

BTW: we raised on a sunday. IIRC everytime we did, we raised a lot on the following monday. lets grab some free money and go long now and short at 315

Will wait to see in the sidelines - if we fail to break 304 and fall below 295 I will short.

I like it ! Have you begin to entry a shorting position right now? We just broke 292 and it looks so tempting. I'll wait for 3XX though

kLee prophecy for the lolz:

315 -> 125 -> 215 -> 75 -> 145

EDIT: That is a bearish scenario if we fail to break 300$ again for good (>320)

Wexlike, he is trying to determine the highest price he can short from. Each higher level has a lower probability of being reached. The probability we are in a new bull market is very, very low but not 0%.

I believe the shorts will pile on between $296 and $305 and that will the end of it. But we might have a lot of meandering to go yet before the real enchilada. Traders have to remain flexible.

If it were me and wanting to K.I.S.S., I would set my shorts at $300 with at least $50 - $70 of margin (note however that mean losing 1/6 to 1/4 of your BTC if you get stopped out by rising price). kLee may prefer a strategy of tighter stops and reenter, I dunno ask him. I am not leveraged shorting but I did sell all BTC for dollars. I banned myself from margin shorting because I need to focus on programming and not watching investments.

I am being a bit noisy about this coming collapse in the non-dollar asset prices, because:

1. I want to help those who are wise so there will still be some capital remaining to invest in crypto at the bottom. To keep crypto markets alive and help restart the next bull market.

2. I want people to learn to respect Martin Armstrong's computer models. Note I am not saying you can't use kLee's methods to try to gauge finer control over entry and exit points. The knowledge about macro correlations certainly can aid the computation of probabilities on the day trading PnF. For example my first paragraph in this post.

Just to clarify: breaking a resistance/support line in PF is NOT a buy/sell signal.

Basically we have resistance up to the last X top (296) and we have to breakout at 300 to get past this first line.
Then there is the 300-304 resistance and of course, as you said, the last high (316).

So if someone wants to be as less risky as possible he has to wait for 320.

I would say that if we pass 305 for good (we hit 308) it is pretty safe to enter.

What is very risky here is two things:

1) The breakout is exactly in the historical 300$ milestone. I expect bears to get really nasty there.
2) We had a tripple bottom break before the next possible double top break, which in general has to be taken very cautiously because it has higher chances of being a bulltrap.

1+2 are pretty synergistic IMO so I would wait for 300-305 area to be left for good behind before I enter. But this is just me of course...

If we break 292, next resistance is at 305, then a possible double top at 317, after that moon ?

292$

https://thomasdorsey.wordpress.com/2015/07/25/its-not-what-you-look-at-that-matters-its-what-you-see-henry-david-thoreau/

LTC encountered solid resistance at 4.75 and is now struggling to keep 4.5.

BTC seems to have paused at first resistance line at 288-292 too.

Will be a busy week!

WTF is wrong with this site again??  

For LTC the trade is easy - buy the break out at 5.5$ else short the hell out of it.
You can short at 4.75-5$ too but risky. <- redundant

BTC is a bit more complicated as a breakout now (300$) is right on to the resistance zone (300-304$).
I would buy at 305$ or short <272$
Alternatively you can short 288-292 range and/or 300-304 but a bit risky too.

Me ATM neutral.

Things getting interesting!