Poll: How high will this current bull run go? - page 4.

uki

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cryptojunk bag holder

Quote from: zimmah on October 30, 2015, 09:10:29 PM

Quote from: BitcoinFortune on October 30, 2015, 12:47:53 PM

After the block halving, the price might drop if there is no new money coming for bitcoin. If there is fresh money, price will still rise.

I seriously doubt this, the reason is simple:

The previous years, we have reached a point where despite a lot of downward pressure from miners and shops constantly selling of bitcoins the price remained stable, because investors bought enough Bitcoin to absorb supply.

Now with the halving, miners will sell only half of what they used to, and although the amount of shops increases, the amount of people using Bitcoin will increase as well, so that should account for much downward pressure anymore. The downward pressure will therefore be much lower, while the upward pressure will be at least the same, if not higher, therefore the new price level will be higher than it is today.

It will of course find a new equilibrium sometime, and it will probable overshoot first, than slowly go down until it hits the equilibrium price. But I wouldn't be surprised if the new base price would settle somewhere around $1800. Overshooting to $3000 or $5000 isn't unlikely at all.

If anything above estimations are most likely too cautious even.

Based on what you claim that the price should settle at $1800? that would mean nearly 10x from where we were in spring/summer. I don't see price rising that much, just because of halving. Maybe we could arrive to $1800 of the peak value that would be ATH btw., but staying there stable? Why?
think also about total market cap. Growing it ten times would mean there is much more demand or the scope of application of Bitcoin has increased drastically in comparison to what we have now. Do you see that coming in less than one year? I, personally, doubt it very much.

zimmah

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Quote from: BitcoinFortune on October 31, 2015, 02:23:59 AM

Quote from: zimmah on October 30, 2015, 09:10:29 PM

It will of course find a new equilibrium sometime, and it will probable overshoot first, than slowly go down until it hits the equilibrium price. But I wouldn't be surprised if the new base price would settle somewhere around $1800. Overshooting to $3000 or $5000 isn't unlikely at all.

If anything above estimations are most likely too cautious even.

$1800 could be the top of this bull run. Then it might drop again to $900 or lower as it did before. If this bull runs slowly, it might not drop below $900.

when did bitcoin bulls ever run slowly?

It's the bear markets that are slow, the bulls are quick and short.

Quote from: 1Referee on October 31, 2015, 03:35:08 AM

I just voted for $500 as that seems a more than reasonable price level to settle at. If we maintain to have a price stable above $500, and the support there is strong enough to catch dumps without going below $500 again, we'll surely advance further.

that's not how it works, that's not how any of this works.

Quote from: RomertL on October 31, 2015, 04:11:12 AM

Interesting an inverted normal distribution - people seem to believe it will either go very high or not so high with few on middle ground. People are either bears or uber-bulls for some reason.

people either are new to bitcoin, or know how bitcoin behaves.

Bitcoin either trades sideways-slowly down (long term bear market) or goes through the roof (not the roof of your house, but the roof of the universe).

Bull markets are really short but they take of like a rocket. They are fucking parabolic on a log chart, that's how fast they rise. But they only last for a short time.

People find it hard to believe bitcoin (or anything at all) can rise 100x in a month or so, but it has done so before, and it will do so again.

Sure, everyone knows growth like this can not go on forever, I'm no fool, I know it can't go on forever, but it can and will go on until bitcoin is a respectable size, and we haven't reached that stage yet. There's no reason to believe bitcoin won't go through at least 2 or 3 more of such rises.

If you think otherwise, you don't know bitcoin well enough.

RomertL

sr. member

Activity: 470

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Interesting an inverted normal distribution - people seem to believe it will either go very high or not so high with few on middle ground. People are either bears or uber-bulls for some reason.

1Referee

legendary

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Merit: 1427

I just voted for $500 as that seems a more than reasonable price level to settle at. If we maintain to have a price stable above $500, and the support there is strong enough to catch dumps without going below $500 again, we'll surely advance further.

BitcoinFortune

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Quote from: zimmah on October 30, 2015, 09:10:29 PM

It will of course find a new equilibrium sometime, and it will probable overshoot first, than slowly go down until it hits the equilibrium price. But I wouldn't be surprised if the new base price would settle somewhere around $1800. Overshooting to $3000 or $5000 isn't unlikely at all.

If anything above estimations are most likely too cautious even.

$1800 could be the top of this bull run. Then it might drop again to $900 or lower as it did before. If this bull runs slowly, it might not drop below $900.

zimmah

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Activity: 1106

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Quote from: BitcoinFortune on October 30, 2015, 12:47:53 PM

After the block halving, the price might drop if there is no new money coming for bitcoin. If there is fresh money, price will still rise.

I seriously doubt this, the reason is simple:

The previous years, we have reached a point where despite a lot of downward pressure from miners and shops constantly selling of bitcoins the price remained stable, because investors bought enough Bitcoin to absorb supply.

Now with the halving, miners will sell only half of what they used to, and although the amount of shops increases, the amount of people using Bitcoin will increase as well, so that should account for much downward pressure anymore. The downward pressure will therefore be much lower, while the upward pressure will be at least the same, if not higher, therefore the new price level will be higher than it is today.

It will of course find a new equilibrium sometime, and it will probable overshoot first, than slowly go down until it hits the equilibrium price. But I wouldn't be surprised if the new base price would settle somewhere around $1800. Overshooting to $3000 or $5000 isn't unlikely at all.

If anything above estimations are most likely too cautious even.

zimmah

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1005

Quote from: Mickeyb on October 30, 2015, 10:32:17 AM

Quote from: zimmah on October 30, 2015, 07:55:11 AM

Quite a lot of people who voted for $3000+ amazing, I thought most people were much more pessimistic.

I don't know, I think that $3,000 is way too high. I wouldn't expect that in my wildest dreams. I think we will go up to $500 this run and there we will run out of steam for a while.

I do see that we approach $3,000 just before the halving. This is quite possible in my opinion.

The wording in OP is a bit confusing, he said "this rally" but also says "the next few months".

It's likely this rally will end and a new rally will form within the next few months, and the second rally might bring us north of $2000 easily.

rocks

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Quote from: Mickeyb on October 30, 2015, 10:32:17 AM

Quote from: zimmah on October 30, 2015, 07:55:11 AM

Quite a lot of people who voted for $3000+ amazing, I thought most people were much more pessimistic.

I don't know, I think that $3,000 is way too high. I wouldn't expect that in my wildest dreams. I think we will go up to $500 this run and there we will run out of steam for a while.

I do see that we approach $3,000 just before the halving. This is quite possible in my opinion.

I remember when $10 was "way too high" and $100 was "not a serious goal". Now these are price points that I doubt we will ever see again.

$3,000 is only a market cap of $44B, or more likely $35B after lost coins are taken into account. That is less than 1 week of central bank funny money printing, which is nothing in today's world.

Unless you need the money for rent/food, it is crazy to sell now IMHO. It reminds me of all those traders who sold into the early 2013 rally through $20, only to watch bitcoin go above $100 and never come back down.

uki

legendary

Activity: 1358

Merit: 1000

cryptojunk bag holder

Quote from: dothebeats on October 30, 2015, 10:36:34 AM

Quote from: Zarathustra on October 30, 2015, 10:16:13 AM

Quote from: Alonzo Ewing on October 29, 2015, 11:20:59 PM

What will the high be on Bitstamp in dollar terms of the current rally, i.e., next few months?

How do you define a rally as terminated? After a correction of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or more percent?

I define it as a fast and progressive decline in price, usually spanning with only a few weeks or days depending on how the market reacts to it. That's just my own definition, I don't know how others view it. But it is very different from retraces and corrections, very different I may say.

this definition you provided is very imprecise, as it leaves too much for a subjective interpretation. See my earlier comment in this thread on that. Usually in the stock markets a 20% move in the opposite direction would be a clear sign of a new trend. Would such definition fit your needs?

buddu

hero member

Activity: 700

Merit: 500

$ 10000 is the price to see sooner.This current uptrend will not stop and take the price straight to $ 10 k at least this time.Hold your Bitcoins or cry later choice is yours.

electronicfactura

hero member

Activity: 714

Merit: 500

I gave vote for 450 USD which seems to me fair price and then we will see some stability plus correction and once halving of blocks will take place again there will be a speedy rises in price which will take it to about 1000 $ till the end of next year.

jaberwock

legendary

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1127

why no option under 375?

I think 420 because of the graphs

sana9821

sr. member

Activity: 420

Merit: 250

i hope that the price will rise to at least 450 dollars though most probably we will stop at somewhere in 350 dollars per bitcoin

ronald98

sr. member

Activity: 314

Merit: 250

Quote from: dothebeats on October 30, 2015, 12:52:27 PM

Quote from: maokoto on October 30, 2015, 11:51:24 AM

I see many people selling when the barrier of 300$ dollar breaks, so I only expect 375$ or less. Hope that feeling is mistaken, though.

It seems that the markets don't want to agree on the $375 top this bull run. At the time of this writing, Huobi sits at $350 per coin, so that means only $25 more and we can say hello to that dear price and a chance to leave it behind for quite some time. Also, more and more money is being poured at this bull run, so it is not far from being a reality that we will be seeing more than $375 anytime sooner.

Either the drop to 314 was consolidation, or it was a dead cat bounce. If it goes back above 335 then it will probably hit 375 soon. If it drops below 314 I don't think we'll see 375 for another month or so. The Chinese exchanges can drop awfully fast and go up frighteningly fast. They did both today and they will probably start yo-yo-ing te price again when they wake up.

dothebeats

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Quote from: maokoto on October 30, 2015, 11:51:24 AM

I see many people selling when the barrier of 300$ dollar breaks, so I only expect 375$ or less. Hope that feeling is mistaken, though.

It seems that the markets don't want to agree on the $375 top this bull run. At the time of this writing, Huobi sits at $350 per coin, so that means only $25 more and we can say hello to that dear price and a chance to leave it behind for quite some time. Also, more and more money is being poured at this bull run, so it is not far from being a reality that we will be seeing more than $375 anytime sooner.

BitcoinFortune

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

After the block halving, the price might drop if there is no new money coming for bitcoin. If there is fresh money, price will still rise.

maokoto

hero member

Activity: 770

Merit: 500

✪ NEXCHANGE | BTC, LTC, ETH & DOGE ✪

I see many people selling when the barrier of 300$ dollar breaks, so I only expect 375$ or less. Hope that feeling is mistaken, though.

richardsNY

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I think the bull run will last at least till after the block halving. That's also why I will hold my coins till that time. Patience will be rewarded. $700 at most.

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

As a pure guess I'll say there's not much steam left. It'll settle back to late 200s until next year sometime. Having said that we know what sometimes happens in November...

BitcoinFortune

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

The current bull will go to around $2000, then it will drop to test $1200 again. I do not know how long it will take to achieve $2000. If it runs very fast, then it could even drop below $1200.

Topic: Poll: How high will this current bull run go? - page 4. (Read 5611 times)