POLL: Is Mt. Gox Solvent? | Bitcointalksearch.org

CrashX

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Quote from: frankenmint on February 20, 2014, 02:33:14 AM

Quote from: CrashX on February 16, 2014, 03:05:34 AM

Mt.Gox is Dead. Doesn't matter what it does or doesn't. The ONLY question, is will BITCOIN survive?

Scenario #1

MT. Gox fixes the problem, EVERY user will withdraw BTC and FIAT at the same time, which will cause the market to crash even more.

Scenario #2

Gox knows that Scenario #1 could happened so they limit on how much BTC each user could withdraw, which will create a Panic Sale and try to withdraw FIAT.

Scenario #3

Gox knows that Scenario #2 could happened so they limit on how much BTC and FIAT each user could withdraw, which will killed the market..

Scenario #4

Gox goes into Bankruptcy, taking Crypto to hell and under, which will take a very very long time to recover, if ever.

AND THIS OPTION APPLY, to any scenario and its applying already.

In the Public View, Bitcoin and Crypto Currency is and always been a Ponzi Scheme. <-- They have been calling Bitcoin, that for the longest time.

what makes scenario 4 even a factor why with coinbase coinex bitstamp kraken coinmkt and btc-e? :/ I'm jsut saying that seems really a bit over the top imho.

Scenario #4, I was talking about Bitcoin and Crypto currency, it will drop like it was a virus.

At this moment Mt. Gox is at $134.xx , ever other market is falling it.

Even thought in a Normal point of view, this should be good for Bitcoin as a large volume of BTC might be remove or lost from a major exchange. Which means less BTC's in the market.

But and a BIG BUT, is that its rise in price was giving to popularity on the Media.

Remember Remember the 18th of November,

Thanks "V", had to use your quote. Grin

frankenmint

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Quote from: CrashX on February 16, 2014, 03:05:34 AM

Mt.Gox is Dead. Doesn't matter what it does or doesn't. The ONLY question, is will BITCOIN survive?

Scenario #1

MT. Gox fixes the problem, EVERY user will withdraw BTC and FIAT at the same time, which will cause the market to crash even more.

Scenario #2

Gox knows that Scenario #1 could happened so they limit on how much BTC each user could withdraw, which will create a Panic Sale and try to withdraw FIAT.

Scenario #3

Gox knows that Scenario #2 could happened so they limit on how much BTC and FIAT each user could withdraw, which will killed the market..

Scenario #4

Gox goes into Bankruptcy, taking Crypto to hell and under, which will take a very very long time to recover, if ever.

AND THIS OPTION APPLY, to any scenario and its applying already.

In the Public View, Bitcoin and Crypto Currency is and always been a Ponzi Scheme. <-- They have been calling Bitcoin, that for the longest time.

what makes scenario 4 even a factor why with coinbase coinex bitstamp kraken coinmkt and btc-e? :/ I'm jsut saying that seems really a bit over the top imho.

mp420

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Quote from: smoothie on February 18, 2014, 12:29:54 AM

Quote from: mp420 on February 17, 2014, 11:42:45 PM

MtGox is solvent. They only had $10.5 million seized and a few thousand BTC lost. They've recouped much more than that.

No one claiming they're insolvent has any kind of explanation of "where did all the money go".

What Mark has all but admitted is that they're operating under a gag order by a US court. They also have problems with both Japanese and European authoritites, which is why they have so low limits for outgoing payments. (IIRC it was 100 million JPY / day INCLUDING the emergency USD withdrawals and 200k EUR per day.) My guess is that the JPY delays are about those emergency manual SWIFT transfers.

The BTC withdrawal problems are just their technical incompetence.

I'm not defending them but I'm just saying there's no way they're insolvent (at least yet). This is not a gambling business where margins are low and competition is harsh. Gox is making good money off trading fees even today, even when their exchange is severely crippled.

Why would we have an explanation of where the money went?

MTGOX has the burden of proof concerning their solvency, not us.

The thing is, I'm not arguing who has the burden of proof but I'm arguing that insolvency is not a plausible explanation of what has happened, unless someone can think of where all that money went. If Mark hasn't lost all customers' money playing poker, Gox should still have it.

Also, they're making quite a bit of money off the panic. If Mark intends to close the exchange and pay out all debts, causing people to panic now would profit him quite nicely.

smoothie

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Quote from: mp420 on February 17, 2014, 11:42:45 PM

MtGox is solvent. They only had $10.5 million seized and a few thousand BTC lost. They've recouped much more than that.

No one claiming they're insolvent has any kind of explanation of "where did all the money go".

What Mark has all but admitted is that they're operating under a gag order by a US court. They also have problems with both Japanese and European authoritites, which is why they have so low limits for outgoing payments. (IIRC it was 100 million JPY / day INCLUDING the emergency USD withdrawals and 200k EUR per day.) My guess is that the JPY delays are about those emergency manual SWIFT transfers.

The BTC withdrawal problems are just their technical incompetence.

I'm not defending them but I'm just saying there's no way they're insolvent (at least yet). This is not a gambling business where margins are low and competition is harsh. Gox is making good money off trading fees even today, even when their exchange is severely crippled.

Why would we have an explanation of where the money went?

MTGOX has the burden of proof concerning their solvency, not us.

mp420

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MtGox is solvent. They only had $10.5 million seized and a few thousand BTC lost. They've recouped much more than that.

No one claiming they're insolvent has any kind of explanation of "where did all the money go".

What Mark has all but admitted is that they're operating under a gag order by a US court. They also have problems with both Japanese and European authoritites, which is why they have so low limits for outgoing payments. (IIRC it was 100 million JPY / day INCLUDING the emergency USD withdrawals and 200k EUR per day.) My guess is that the JPY delays are about those emergency manual SWIFT transfers.

The BTC withdrawal problems are just their technical incompetence.

I'm not defending them but I'm just saying there's no way they're insolvent (at least yet). This is not a gambling business where margins are low and competition is harsh. Gox is making good money off trading fees even today, even when their exchange is severely crippled.

ArticMine

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If I was to give MTGox a credit rating https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_credit_rating it has to be D in default.

If we break it out by currency

We have

BTC - D
USD - D
CAD - D
AUD - D
GBP - D
EUR - C (Some but not all payments are getting through, but there is imminent risk of default)
JPY - CC (Although payments are getting through, there is imminent risk of default)

I would weight MTGox's liabilities as 50% BTC and 50% fiat with the bulk of the fiat in USD. MTGox has been in USD default since last summer.
I voted NO

Edit: Correction I am now downgrading MTGox JPY from CC to C negative and changing my outlook MTGox EUR to C negative. See this post https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5207137 JPY withdrawals are now been delayed.

Gulinborsti

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Even if they had problems in the past 9 months (USD withdrawals) I can't believe that it is due to fiat shortage. My bet is that they are hard under pressure by some regulations - they told us about problems with compliance last year.
There was enough volume on MtGox in the last few months to fill their pockets on fees only and the last week gave them enough opportunity to fill their pockets on the price divergence between MtGox and the-rest-of-the-world coins ...

Armis

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Quote from: mp420 on February 16, 2014, 11:25:56 PM

Consider this:

In the last 30 days alone, MtGox has made more than $3 million in trading fees.

don't expect that to go up

people are getting out, only the hardcore greedy gamblers are willingly riding it out

CrashX

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Quote from: superduh on February 16, 2014, 04:44:25 AM

nice one with the FUD/ btc withdrawls and fiat withdrawls have zero (none) effect on price. but, good attempt at making it seem like you know what you're talking about.

actually not very good. since it seems that your train of logic (scenario) 1 is very common among the fudsters. too bad it doesn't make any sense no matter how hard you try

It looks like they decided to pick Scenario #3

Quote

With this new system in place, MtGox should be able to resume withdrawals
soon. At the beginning we will do so at a moderated pace and with new daily/
monthly limits in place to prevent any problems with the new system and to take
into account current market conditions.

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20140217-Announcement.pdf

Now was that FUD? Told your ass, that one of my Scenario will of have happened.

mp420

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Consider this:

In the last 30 days alone, MtGox has made more than $3 million in trading fees.

smoothie

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In almost every scenario I see people running to FIAT somehow.

If they do have BTC withdrawals (best possible outcome) ...MTGOX price skyrockets and shortly thereafter all other large exchanges prices dump as people get out and into fiat.

Seems to be the herd mentality right now.

CrashX

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Quote from: superduh on February 16, 2014, 04:44:25 AM

nice one with the FUD/ btc withdrawls and fiat withdrawls have zero (none) effect on price. but, good attempt at making it seem like you know what you're talking about.

actually not very good. since it seems that your train of logic (scenario) 1 is very common among the fudsters. too bad it doesn't make any sense no matter how hard you try

Correction, it shouldn't have an effect on Bitcoin, but it is. If your a trader, you know what.

But soon, will see what will happen, wont be. Im certain that one of my scenarios is correct, and Im willing to escrow 10BTC in a bet.

MicroGuy

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I'd say they're solvent based on the arbitrage opportunity they've had over the past few days. If the company was in trouble, they could have easily corrected their balance sheets by buying MtGox coins and selling them on other markets.

CrashX

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Quote from: mp420 on February 16, 2014, 07:45:09 AM

They're making shitloads of money every day from trading fees. Even if they've lost millions because of their stupidity and poor luck, they're still solvent.

I really really do not understand why people are selling at these (Gox) prices. If they view Gox as insolvent, do they really think it's better to hold GoxFiat as opposed to GoxBTC?

The reason is better to hold FIAT, its for a possible lawsuit. As Digital Currency doesn't have value in the face of law, if anybody is planning to sue Gox its better to hold FIAT with the company, as a court or Jury will better understand it.

CrashX

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Quote from: Tzupy on February 16, 2014, 04:28:04 AM

Once the BTC withdrawals on MtGox will resume tomorrow (the official statement), price on MtGox will quickly jump to
the level of Bitstamp or even a bit above. After that, it's anybody's guess...

Umm... Keep your finger cross. Never the less Mt. Gox is dead, what ever happens will crash the market after a sale. Will see in afew hours which scenario is correct.

torry28

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Quote from: Armis on February 16, 2014, 10:09:38 AM

Quote from: torry28 on February 16, 2014, 10:06:21 AM

I see big withdrawals problems with MtGox last 6 months, Im surprised anyone is using MtGox Shocked

If they could independly prove they have enought funds NOW to pay everybody ballance, I would be using MtGox, but many have so little information about withdrawals delays they still using this ponzi exchange. Obviously MtGox is insolvent, the sonner they close shop, the better for Bitcoin.

In the US the word "ponzi" is a very bad word in the financial world, you might want to run over to wikipedia to read up on it.

I mean they need more new deposits to pay current user ballances, thats why I call it ponzi. Unless independly audited and proved me wrong, I believe all available info support calling MtGox ponzi exchange

Armis

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Quote from: torry28 on February 16, 2014, 10:06:21 AM

I see big withdrawals problems with MtGox last 6 months, Im surprised anyone is using MtGox Shocked

If they could independly prove they have enought funds NOW to pay everybody ballance, I would be using MtGox, but many have so little information about withdrawals delays they still using this ponzi exchange. Obviously MtGox is insolvent, the sonner they close shop, the better for Bitcoin.

In the US the word "ponzi" is a very bad word in the financial world, you might want to run over to wikipedia to read up on it.

Armis

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Quote from: btbrae on February 16, 2014, 09:52:42 AM

Not sure. But having a rotting dead carcass the size of Mtgox stinking up the Bitcoin waters will crash the price on every other exchange, IMO. Some people think it will be a good thing, I understand why, but once the media gets hold of this Bitcoin is going south.

the media will have their moment, but they only shape the market when the coin buyers are listening to them, at this point the market isn't going down because of non-holders not buying, it would only go down from btc holders selling. And since all of the other exchanges have corrected their problem, and disconnected their pricing connection with MG, there is nothing to fear, the simply make the statement: "we are sorry to see our colleague go, ... we will provide smooth transition of account transfers, btc is strong, ... secure, ... reliable, ... dependable, ... responsive, ... responsible, ...

torry28

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I see big withdrawals problems with MtGox last 6 months, Im surprised anyone is using MtGox Shocked

If they could independly prove they have enought funds NOW to pay everybody ballance, I would be using MtGox, but many have so little information about withdrawals delays they still using this ponzi exchange. Obviously MtGox is insolvent, the sonner they close shop, the better for Bitcoin.

Armis

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Quote from: mp420 on February 16, 2014, 07:45:09 AM

They're making shitloads of money every day from trading fees. Even if they've lost millions because of their stupidity and poor luck, they're still solvent.

I really really do not understand why people are selling at these (Gox) prices. If they view Gox as insolvent, do they really think it's better to hold GoxFiat as opposed to GoxBTC?

according to my understanding of their memo, withdrawing fiat of any kind is not an issue, the only issue is withdrawing btc to an third party (external)

Topic: POLL: Is Mt. Gox Solvent? (Read 2359 times)