[POLL] Just-Dice INVESTORS: Do you agree with lowering the max bet? - page 5.

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: ?? on ??

The 1300 incident is 60/40 Doogs fault. (40 Nak)
This is 60/40 your fault (40 Doogs)

I think you will soon regret this, as a lot of the other top 10 investors are already are.

1. I do not control Dooglus at all, whatsoever.
2. I will take the credit, I am happy about the change. Maybe this way you will bitch more at me who could care less about your opinion, rather than to Doog who for some reason cares

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: Rampion on September 25, 2013, 03:07:02 PM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 25, 2013, 03:05:32 PM

Quote from: mechs on September 25, 2013, 03:02:35 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Also Mechs in chat said to Nakowa , he personally does not want him betting there anymore win or lose because hes an asshole. Is this the type of investors other investors want?

Well, the was preceeded by him insulting me. I do not care about Nakowa. The site needs to be fair, trusted and the best odds out their for players, while a +EV with managable variance for investors. I am thinking long-term, while many of those against change only thinking short-term.

Insults best customer - claims to think long term Roll Eyes

lol, you've nailed it.

Sorry mechs, I don't want to be harsh on you, but scaring away the best possible customer for "your" casino doesn't sounds like long-term planning

You think me not liking nakowa and expressing that since he is a known thief and liar effects his behavior. How many times has he said he will never come back? If he will only play at the site under conditions which put the site's bankroll in extreme jeopardy, then so be it.

Let's remember who we are dealing with: http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-gambler-cheats-satoshidice-competitor-just-dice-out-of-1300-btc/

Guy is a POS, it the truth.

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 25, 2013, 03:05:32 PM

Quote from: mechs on September 25, 2013, 03:02:35 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Also Mechs in chat said to Nakowa , he personally does not want him betting there anymore win or lose because hes an asshole. Is this the type of investors other investors want?

Well, the was preceeded by him insulting me. I do not care about Nakowa. The site needs to be fair, trusted and the best odds out their for players, while a +EV with managable variance for investors. I am thinking long-term, while many of those against change only thinking short-term.

Insults best customer - claims to think long term Roll Eyes

lol, you've nailed it.

Sorry mechs, I don't want to be harsh on you, but scaring away the best possible customer for "your" casino doesn't sounds like long-term planning

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: mechs on September 25, 2013, 03:02:35 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Also Mechs in chat said to Nakowa , he personally does not want him betting there anymore win or lose because hes an asshole. Is this the type of investors other investors want?

Well, the was preceeded by him insulting me. I do not care about Nakowa. The site needs to be fair, trusted and the best odds out their for players, while a +EV with managable variance for investors. I am thinking long-term, while many of those against change only thinking short-term.

Insults best customer - claims to think long term Roll Eyes

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: ?? on ??

Also Mechs in chat said to Nakowa , he personally does not want him betting there anymore win or lose because hes an asshole. Is this the type of investors other investors want?

Well, the was preceeded by him insulting me. I do not care about Nakowa. The site needs to be fair, trusted and the best odds out their for players, while a +EV with managable variance for investors. I am thinking long-term, while many of those against change only thinking short-term.

galbros

legendary

Activity: 1022

Merit: 1000

Quote from: dmcurser on September 25, 2013, 02:15:14 PM

should never have been changed without notice.

While I understand how doing this undercut the whale's strategy since it lowered variance... +1 to the above.

It would have been nice to have seen a poll like this BEFORE the change for investors.

Sterling

newbie

Activity: 39

Merit: 0

How about .5%? Or like, .65%?

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: ?? on ??

Also Mechs in chat said to Nakowa , he personally does not want him betting there anymore win or lose because hes an asshole. Is this the type of investors other investors want?

Wow, amazing. From one side, if your only chance to quickly recoup those HUGE losses is variance, you don't want to screw up variance. Math and Nakowa's delusional attitude was on our side. From the other side, you just do not scare away the best customer you have (and that probably you will EVER have).

Nakowa has incredibly deep pockets, he is completely delusional and probably sick ("i'm not a gambler", "i found a system", "i spot patterns", "i cannot quit because i always win"), and we scare it away from "our" casino? Are we crazy?

That said, I understand Dooglus, even if I don't approve what he did. I have this attitude towards Nakowa because I am 100% ready to lose all my investment in JD, and that makes me calm and confident. On the other side, Doog has invested a HUGE amount of work on this project. Even if the chance of Nakowa winning the whole bankroll is extremely low, I guess for Dooglus that extremely low probability is high enough to make him VERY nervous. My guess is that he couldn't even stand the thought of seeing another big chunk of the roll go to Nakowa's pockets, so he took a rushed and IMO unfortunate decision.

Quote from: Oleander on September 25, 2013, 02:51:16 PM

This is a matter of math and logic. Some people argued that the max bet was too high and the variance allowed a whale with a large enough bankroll to win despite the house edge. There is plenty of evidence lately that this is the case. Nakowa himself agrees with this and has said so. Others argued that the max bet had to kept at 1% to give them a chance to recoup their losses. But this sounds like gambler's fallacy... what's lost is lost, and there is no reversion to the mean to make things right again.

My point is that math is not a democracy. Voting to set pi equal to 3 does not make it so.

JD is an experiment. Let's see what happens, analyze some more data and reconsider the max bet.

No gamblers fallacy here. Nakowa was lucky, very lucky, unlikely lucky - if he had played long enough, he would have ended up losing. That's no fallacy, that's math, because you do realize that the house has an edge - right?

integrity42

full member

Activity: 476

Merit: 100

Quote from: ?? on ??

Also Mechs in chat said to Nakowa , he personally does not want him betting there anymore win or lose because hes an asshole. Is this the type of investors other investors want?

+1

Can you imagine a vegas casino running at optimal kelly criterion turning away whales?? Whoever was responsible for that would probably be fired.

mughat

newbie

Activity: 37

Merit: 0

Quote from: integrity42 on September 25, 2013, 02:08:55 PM

As many of you know, Just-dice investors lost a lot of BTC to Nakowa. He currently has 13,000BTC of investor money in his hands. As a result, dooglus lowered the max bet to 0.25%

Nakowa has stated that he will never play again since the max bet has been lowered.

As an investor, Are you happy with lowering the max bet?

EDIT: Some things to consider

PROS:
-- Less variance for investors.

CONS:
-- We must assume for now that Nakowa will not play again (this might change, but he said he won'y play again at this bet size). This means there is no way for investors to recover the 13,000BTC losses.
-- As BTC exchange rate rises bet sizes will drop. As time goes on without nakowa, its possible that the site will never hit +6000 profit making it impossible for some investors to recover their losses.
-- Changing bet size without notice wasn't good for gambler confidence.

If you want less risk simply invest less money. Simple as that. Think about it....

There is no good reason to change the max bet.

Oleander

newbie

Activity: 45

Merit: 0

This is a matter of math and logic. Some people argued that the max bet was too high and the variance allowed a whale with a large enough bankroll to win despite the house edge. There is plenty of evidence lately that this is the case. Nakowa himself agrees with this and has said so. Others argued that the max bet had to kept at 1% to give them a chance to recoup their losses. But this sounds like gambler's fallacy... what's lost is lost, and there is no reversion to the mean to make things right again.

My point is that math is not a democracy. Voting to set pi equal to 3 does not make it so.

JD is an experiment. Let's see what happens, analyze some more data and reconsider the max bet.

integrity42

full member

Activity: 476

Merit: 100

Uhh.. Is that true? Mechs convinced dooglus privately to drop the investment %???

If thats true it's totally unfair to other investors without consulting them.

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 25, 2013, 02:20:09 PM

When I discovered the max bet today: Huh

I was watching Nakowa playing, losing big time. It was just a matter of minutes for him to go berserk and push max bet to recover his losses. When I saw the max bet going to 0.25%, I thought "OH NO!!!"

IMO Dooglus got overemotional, he was scared by the thought Nakowa could have won another big % of the bankroll. But that was unlikely. Plus, I don't understand all this talk about "making Nakowa stop playing". Nakowa was OUR BEST CUSTOMER. Every casino in the world wants the biggest whales to keep playing. If you need to change things, you do it right, you just do not take a rushed decision to STOP your best customer from playing. That's unfair and totally counter-productive.

Plus, the only chance to recoup the 25% losses we had in a few days was precisely to let Nakowa do his things. Math was on our side. Now, we will probably do not reach break even for months.

Anyhow, respect to dooglus - and full support. It might be a mistake, but he is honest, trustworthy, and very capable. I'm glad I'm invested in his product.

integrity42

full member

Activity: 476

Merit: 100

It seems like most investors disagree with mechs.

Mechs doesn't seem to care that some investors will never recover with a 0.25% max bet and Nakowa leaving. He's pretty selfish to be honest. If he didn't like the 1% and variance he could have divested. 30,000BTC were happy with it. They stayed in.

Instead, mechs is happy with forcefully implementing 0.25% without consultation to other investors who are massively in the hole.

Very nice.

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: mechs on September 25, 2013, 02:24:24 PM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 25, 2013, 02:22:59 PM

Quote from: mechs on September 25, 2013, 02:18:59 PM

Who cares what anyone thinks except investors or gamblers?

99.99% of gamblers are not effecting by a 80 BTC profit max (as it currently is and will continue to go up)
Investors did not want the variance, risk of ruin had become too high

Results of this poll are meaningless, and will probably be 1% since it makes for a more interesting show to see 400 BTC bets than 80 BTC ones.

You are starting to resort to untrue statements.

After whale winning big 30,000 btc chose to stay invested, only 10,000 btc chose to withdraw investment.

That's how the money voted. 75% for 1% edge.

I was invested and have never divested. I am happy with the change. I wanted less variance and so do many other investors. Others, like me, stayed invested since so deep in the hole, was an act of desperation. Not rational but that is what it is.

Ok, but you are not all investors, please don't speak for them. You are also spamming the boards by repeating continuously the same arguments.

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 25, 2013, 02:22:59 PM

Quote from: mechs on September 25, 2013, 02:18:59 PM

Who cares what anyone thinks except investors or gamblers?

99.99% of gamblers are not effecting by a 80 BTC profit max (as it currently is and will continue to go up)
Investors did not want the variance, risk of ruin had become too high

Results of this poll are meaningless, and will probably be 1% since it makes for a more interesting show to see 400 BTC bets than 80 BTC ones.

You are starting to resort to untrue statements.

After whale winning big 30,000 btc chose to stay invested, only 10,000 btc chose to withdraw investment.

That's how the money voted. 75% for 1% edge.

I was invested and have never divested. I am happy with the change. I wanted less variance and so do many other investors. Others, like me, stayed invested since so deep in the hole, was an act of desperation. Not rational but that is what it is.

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: mechs on September 25, 2013, 02:18:59 PM

Who cares what anyone thinks except investors or gamblers?

99.99% of gamblers are not effecting by a 80 BTC profit max (as it currently is and will continue to go up)
Investors did not want the variance, risk of ruin had become too high

Results of this poll are meaningless, and will probably be 1% since it makes for a more interesting show to see 400 BTC bets than 80 BTC ones.

You are starting to resort to untrue statements.

After whale winning big 30,000 btc chose to stay invested, only 10,000 btc chose to withdraw investment.

That's how the money voted. 75% for 1% max bet and high variance in return for high potential return.

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: mechs on September 25, 2013, 02:18:59 PM

Who cares what anyone thinks except investors or gamblers?

99.99% of gamblers are not effecting by a 80 BTC profit max (as it currently is and will continue to go up)
Investors did not want the variance, risk of ruin had become too high

Results of this poll are meaningless, and will probably be 1% since it makes for a more interesting show to see 400 BTC bets than 80 BTC ones.

Have Doog email the top 10-15 investors and let them tell you that you are out numbered 5-1, you where most vocal on this and got in Doog's ear others did not want this.

I am fine with that.

joesmoe2012

hero member

Activity: 882

Merit: 501

Ching-Chang;Ding-Dong

A poll, discussion, or at the least notification prior to making the change should have taken place for the investors and gamblers alike. Was very impressed with the site until this.

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

When I discovered the max bet today: Huh

Topic: [POLL] Just-Dice INVESTORS: Do you agree with lowering the max bet? - page 5. (Read 7080 times)