Poll: Market effect of a MtGox payout.

Twilight_Sparkle

member

Activity: 91

Merit: 10

Quote from: Gotgoxed on March 26, 2014, 04:32:41 PM

"the amount of people HODLing will only go down" Huh

For every seller there is a buyer! Plain economics Wink

HODLing =/= selling(or buying for that matter). When someone takes coins they own out of storage and put them on the market, the amount of people HODLing goes down. When someone leaves the market, and puts coins in storage, the amount of people HODLing goes up. Every coin mtgox controls is a coin in HODling status. If the coins leave their control and returns to the rightful owners then... Every coin that is not stored more or less immediately and is put on the market, is a coin no longer in HODLing status. 100% of goxcoins is in HODLing. If they ever become unfrozen, if even one ~~coin~~ satoshi is put back on the market "the amount of people HODLing will only go down"*. 101% is not possible.

* For all the nit-picky, it is possible that every single Mtgox customer puts the coins in storage, but I'd sooner bet on winning the lottery.

Gotgoxed

member

Activity: 65

Merit: 10

Quote from: Twilight_Sparkle on March 26, 2014, 04:15:49 PM

Quote from: Wilhelm on March 26, 2014, 03:38:55 PM

There will be a major shift drom gox to other exchanges or cold wallets. This means sideways initially.

Sure, a possible scenario.

Quote from: Wilhelm on March 26, 2014, 03:38:55 PM

After that the people who got their coins back will resume trading on other exchanges making the price go up.

How would that make it go up? The only trades you can do with coins is sell for fiat, which makes it go down. Or for alt-coins, which makes the alt-coin go up.

Quote from: Wilhelm on March 26, 2014, 03:38:55 PM

Some people will HODL making the price go up since less coins available.

Mtgox is making everyone HODL their coins, whether they like it or not. If they release the coins, the amount of people HODLing will only go down. EDIT: No matter how you look at it, Mtgox putting coins in the market makes more coins avalible, not less.

"the amount of people HODLing will only go down" Huh

For every seller there is a buyer! Plain economics Wink

uhoh

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Circle gets the Square

I'd rather never see my coins again if that were the only way to ensure Gox never returns to the scene. With Gox gone for good, my remaining coins are going to be worth more IMO (in the long run).

Still though, I HATE Mark Karpeles. If I had all my coins there I would be absolutely livid.

If indeed they have the rest of the BTC, IMO unlikely

Best case:
Coins returned, Gox disappears for good.

Likely case:
Gox returns, and fucks us all over again.

Twilight_Sparkle

member

Activity: 91

Merit: 10

Quote from: Wilhelm on March 26, 2014, 03:38:55 PM

There will be a major shift drom gox to other exchanges or cold wallets. This means sideways initially.

Sure, a possible scenario.

Quote from: Wilhelm on March 26, 2014, 03:38:55 PM

After that the people who got their coins back will resume trading on other exchanges making the price go up.

How would that make it go up? The only trades you can do with coins is sell for fiat, which makes it go down. Or for alt-coins, which makes the alt-coin go up.

Quote from: Wilhelm on March 26, 2014, 03:38:55 PM

Some people will HODL making the price go up since less coins available.

Mtgox is making everyone HODL their coins, whether they like it or not. If they release the coins, the amount of people HODLing will only go down. EDIT: No matter how you look at it, Mtgox putting coins in the market makes more coins avalible, not less.

Wilhelm

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1265

There will be a major shift drom gox to other exchanges or cold wallets. This means sideways initially.
After that the people who got their coins back will resume trading on other exchanges making the price go up.
Some people will HODL making the price go up since less coins available.

MtGOX will then shut down for good and Mark goes to jail... and everyone else lives happily ever after

damiano

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.

I think there will be some selling (not to much)

relm9

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Twilight_Sparkle on March 26, 2014, 02:28:58 PM

Price of Iceland’s Auroracoin Falls 50% Against Bitcoin After Airdrop.* Spoiler alert, same thing will happen if gox "airdrops" the coins back to the users.

* In hindsight, this was a great opportunity to short auroracoin. I wonder if there were any easy ways to do so.

quite a different scenario there. Those Auroracoins were given away for free and it is more or less a worthless alt, I'd dump them no question.

I don't think people would be so quick to dump their BTC.

Twilight_Sparkle

member

Activity: 91

Merit: 10

Price of Iceland’s Auroracoin Falls 50% Against Bitcoin After Airdrop.* Spoiler alert, same thing will happen if gox "airdrops" the coins back to the users.

* In hindsight, this was a great opportunity to short auroracoin. I wonder if there were any easy ways to do so.

piramida

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1010

Borsche

Quote from: kooke on March 26, 2014, 10:52:53 AM

Someone is obviously lying

you noticed too? gox, it seems, started lying somewhen around the time Karpeles got in the office in 2011 and has not stopped since then.

kooke

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

Bitcoin super-duper-mega-ultra-hyper-node

I thought many of the missing BTC were stolen over time due to 'transaction malleability'. Now some of them have suddenly been found. Someone is obviously lying, and lying is hardly a good sign.

Zule

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Aint nothing happening for 6 months at least, the impact for the time being is null.

hellscabane

legendary

Activity: 896

Merit: 1000

If a payout does occur, I envision a fun battle to balance those who are trying to recoup losses from the last run up and and those who just want to make a quick profit. For the short term, we might have another upward spike (maybe hitting around ~750) followed by a downward trend that'll extend 3-4 weeks.

piramida

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1010

Borsche

If it ever happens, that would be the first time in history that MtGox has positively affected bitcoin price

So, I don't believe it. Mark will find a way to screw everything up even if he found 10 million coins. And I definitely am not sending a single satoshi to any non-transparent bitcoin service anymore. That is I guess the only positive thing from all of this - services would be held to a much, much higher scrutiny level now. Amateur hour is over.

Zule

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Dont underestimate the USD that gox has to return. Portion of that money will be used to buy back coins.

MelMan2002

sr. member

Activity: 461

Merit: 251

Quote from: ChuckBuck on March 25, 2014, 06:00:28 PM

I vote positive or up, because why wouldn't it be a good thing to restore 670,000 BTC to it's rightful owners.

Mt. Gox will have it day in court yet, but what about the traders, investors, home owners, early adopters, supporters of Bitcoin that got "Goxxed".

If the coins are returned, I would imagine the majority would continue trading or investing, just not at Gox.

Several will sell off and get out of the Bitcoin game, but a vast majority are in it for the long haul.

..Which results in the price going down

ashapasa

sr. member

Activity: 420

Merit: 250

glad the victims will get something

rebuilder

legendary

Activity: 1615

Merit: 1000

Seems to me a payout would increase the odds of Gox rising from the dead to goxx us all again.

barbs

hero member

Activity: 854

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Ibian on March 25, 2014, 08:03:42 PM

I just wanna see Karp in jail. This shit should not go unpunished, however it resolves.

agreed

counter

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 500

Time is on our side, yes it is!

Seems simple enough it's a good thing for long term investors and that is all anybody could ask for or why would they bother investing in the first place.

Twilight_Sparkle

member

Activity: 91

Merit: 10

Basic economics, more supply means price goes down. Some of those coins will be sold, which pushes the price down.

Quote from: jtsnau on March 25, 2014, 07:10:52 PM

All Bitcoin news, good or bad, results in a price dip.

Right? I don't get this community sometimes Roll Eyes

Topic: Poll: Market effect of a MtGox payout. (Read 3291 times)