I see your point about malicious forking. At this point I need others view points to consider.
side note for you both,
"malicious
forking"
many people are over using umbrella terms. of "forking"
try to stick with clear definitions (even im using gmaxwells buzzwords to keep things clear(so even he cant poke the bear))
EG soft = pools move without node
EG hard = node move and pools follow
consensus = if its near unanimous agreement(few orphans orphans now and again but one chain)
controversial = if its arguable low agreement (lots of orphans before it settles down to one chain)
bilateral split = intention avoidance of consensus/orphans/opposition (an altcoin creator with second chain sustaining life)
now then
segwit is in essense a soft consensus.
segwit has 2 parts. although pools change the rules without nodes consent. segwit has other things. like changing the network topology (FIBRE) so that they are upstream (central/top close to pools) able to translate and pass downstream block data in a form nodes can consent to/accept.
however putting segwit aside and looking at bip9 which is how pools were given the vote. a soft bilateral split can happen
bip9 allows
soft(pool) BILATERAL SPLITBIP9 changed to a new quorum sensing approach that is MUCH less vulnerable to false triggering, so 95% under it is more like 99.9% under the old approach. basically when it activates, the 95% will have to be willing to potentially orphan the blocks of the 5% that remain
If there is some reason when the users of Bitcoin would rather have it activate at 90% ... then even with the 95% rule the network could choose to activate it at 90% just by orphaning the blocks of the non-supporters until 95%+ of the remaining blocks signaled activation.
in essence ignoring opposing pools where by those other pools still hash
which can lead to:
a split of 2 chains where they continue and just build ontop of THEMselves, or
they give up and find other jobs, or
they change software and join the majority
totally different bip not even in any bitcoin version right now..
hard(node and pool) BILATERAL SPLITnew UASF does this. (although the buzzword is meant to make it sound easier by stroking the sheep to sleep by pretending its a "soft" (S of UASF)fix. but because its node caused. its hard)
because it involves intentionally rejecting valid blocks purely based on who created it. it leads to the pool:
split of 2 chains where they continue and just build ontop of THEMselves, or
they give up and find other jobs, or
they change software and join the majority.
however because nodes are doing this. it can cause further controversy(of the nodes not pools) because the nodes are then differently selecting what is acceptable and hanging onto different chains
which is where UASF is worse than hard consensus or hard bilateral due to even more orphan drama