i think halving day will be stable
But will December be stable?
Topic: [poll] Price - page 3. (Read 3856 times)
Yeah you're right about the numbers (6 per hour * 24 hours * 50btc)... I'm recovering from surgery and so typing and thinking :-) is hard. Its interesting that SR might occupy that much currency per day. But the currency can be reused so something else is going on to actually consume it. That something else is likely primarily long term investment (hoarding), but it really does not matter what it is; whatever it is, it has been a steady demand for 6 months or more and there is no socio-economic reason why that will change any time soon (other then grow) since the global economic situation remains on its current trajectory.
I think only 7200 are minted a day. 144*50.
If it is true that Silk Road does 2 million a month (a theory with many holes) that is 66kusd a day. After block halving only 3600 which at current price levels is about 40kusd a day. Obviously dealers will sell to make USD but it seems like net buying > net selling for the near short term since they are working on nice margins they probably will sell just enough to buy more product. And this is just the SR.
If it is true that Silk Road does 2 million a month (a theory with many holes) that is 66kusd a day. After block halving only 3600 which at current price levels is about 40kusd a day. Obviously dealers will sell to make USD but it seems like net buying > net selling for the near short term since they are working on nice margins they probably will sell just enough to buy more product. And this is just the SR.
i think halving day will be stable
But will December be stable? 
I think only 7200 are minted a day. 144*50.
If it is true that Silk Road does 2 million a month (a theory with many holes) that is 66kusd a day. After block halving only 3600 which at current price levels is about 40kusd a day. Obviously dealers will sell to make USD but it seems like net buying > net selling for the near short term since they are working on nice margins they probably will sell just enough to buy more product. And this is just the SR.
If it is true that Silk Road does 2 million a month (a theory with many holes) that is 66kusd a day. After block halving only 3600 which at current price levels is about 40kusd a day. Obviously dealers will sell to make USD but it seems like net buying > net selling for the near short term since they are working on nice margins they probably will sell just enough to buy more product. And this is just the SR.
$20 before new year 
i think halving day will be stable
As many of us predicted months ago, we seem to be in the lead-up to the halving where ask depth is drying up -- people are thinking "why not wait and see what happens?"
So what will happen?
Frankly, a lot of the volume on Gox seems to be due to short-term speculative action. This is just the "fog of war"... but it cannot hide the fact that a much lower volume of long-term activity must be sequestering the 9600 BTC produced each day which is keeping the price stable above 10. This long term activity is expected given the positive press and growing legitimacy of the currency. So I believe that the blockchain halving is going to place a small but significant upwards pressure on the price, since there is clearly demand for 9600 a day but only half that many coins produced.
But its very possible that the lack of a pre-halving "breakout" will cause short-term speculators to dump some coins near the halving mark. However, many of these speculators are going to be the sort that keeps fiat on gox for reinvestment. So a dump near the halving is just $ that will be poured back into the next breakout.
TL;DR; the bull breakout after the halving will be a big one...
So what will happen?
Frankly, a lot of the volume on Gox seems to be due to short-term speculative action. This is just the "fog of war"... but it cannot hide the fact that a much lower volume of long-term activity must be sequestering the 9600 BTC produced each day which is keeping the price stable above 10. This long term activity is expected given the positive press and growing legitimacy of the currency. So I believe that the blockchain halving is going to place a small but significant upwards pressure on the price, since there is clearly demand for 9600 a day but only half that many coins produced.
But its very possible that the lack of a pre-halving "breakout" will cause short-term speculators to dump some coins near the halving mark. However, many of these speculators are going to be the sort that keeps fiat on gox for reinvestment. So a dump near the halving is just $ that will be poured back into the next breakout.
TL;DR; the bull breakout after the halving will be a big one...
+1
Up!
As many of us predicted months ago, we seem to be in the lead-up to the halving where ask depth is drying up -- people are thinking "why not wait and see what happens?"
So what will happen?
Frankly, a lot of the volume on Gox seems to be due to short-term speculative action. This is just the "fog of war"... but it cannot hide the fact that a much lower volume of long-term activity must be sequestering the 9600 BTC produced each day which is keeping the price stable above 10. This long term activity is expected given the positive press and growing legitimacy of the currency. So I believe that the blockchain halving is going to place a small but significant upwards pressure on the price, since there is clearly demand for 9600 a day but only half that many coins produced.
But its very possible that the lack of a pre-halving "breakout" will cause short-term speculators to dump some coins near the halving mark. However, many of these speculators are going to be the sort that keeps fiat on gox for reinvestment. So a dump near the halving is just $ that will be poured back into the next breakout.
TL;DR; the bull breakout after the halving will be a big one...
So what will happen?
Frankly, a lot of the volume on Gox seems to be due to short-term speculative action. This is just the "fog of war"... but it cannot hide the fact that a much lower volume of long-term activity must be sequestering the 9600 BTC produced each day which is keeping the price stable above 10. This long term activity is expected given the positive press and growing legitimacy of the currency. So I believe that the blockchain halving is going to place a small but significant upwards pressure on the price, since there is clearly demand for 9600 a day but only half that many coins produced.
But its very possible that the lack of a pre-halving "breakout" will cause short-term speculators to dump some coins near the halving mark. However, many of these speculators are going to be the sort that keeps fiat on gox for reinvestment. So a dump near the halving is just $ that will be poured back into the next breakout.
TL;DR; the bull breakout after the halving will be a big one...
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