[Poll] What are the predictions on the bottom? (should i sell and buy back in)

YipYip

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Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 06, 2014, 05:39:21 PM

Quote from: YipYip on May 06, 2014, 04:53:01 PM

What happens if you have a buy in @ 330 and it only hits 331

You set your buy-in order higher - like $335 Wink

.

So you think btc will fall to $331 and still advise OP not to sell at $430? This is sort of an alternative logic that is very common in this forum. Still cannot understand such reasoning Huh

Perhaps because I have Ph.D. in mathematics, LOL.

You guys are on crack ....I was using it as an EXAMPLE !!!

I think IT wont go below 415 ...if it does it will be a flash crash that you will be lucky to catch

MatTheCat

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Quote from: YipYip on May 06, 2014, 04:53:01 PM

High risk ...and a real novice move

What happens if you have a buy in @ 330 and it only hits 331 (this has happned to me on many occasions and to make a point I missed getting filled one time by 0.4 cents )

I missed where the OP stated that he was buying back in entirely at $330.

Dont do that! Buy in in tranches FFS!

Back in March on the crash to $400, I had dreamt that Bitcoin would rebound off $380 a couple of weeks previously (I place a lot of faith in my dreams when I get them). Thus, I placed a 60 BTC order at $391.34 (every penny of spare capital that I had to throw at Bitcoin). I missed out on the bottom with my entire order by less than $10. By the time I got out my bed, Bitcoin was already back up over $500 and I had totally missed out on what might have been a 13K profit within 2 days, but due to my shit trading skills would have probably been just an 8K USD profit. As it turns out, I got fuck all except 1K I took on 20 BTC from $490 to $545.

Always buy in tranches!

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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Quote from: YipYip on May 06, 2014, 04:53:01 PM

What happens if you have a buy in @ 330 and it only hits 331

You set your buy-in order higher - like $335 Wink

.

So you think btc will fall to $331 and still advise OP not to sell at $430? This is sort of an alternative logic that is very common in this forum. Still cannot understand such reasoning Huh

Perhaps because I have Ph.D. in mathematics, LOL.

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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Activity: 336

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Quote from: bitcoinsrus on May 06, 2014, 02:34:00 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 06, 2014, 02:19:54 PM

Quote from: bitcoinsrus on May 06, 2014, 10:15:42 AM

well you would have to sell lower (430) and hopefully buy lower. Do the math and decide if it all makes sense.
Selling now at 430. If sold at 430, then you take 120 loss per btc. If you think it will go to 310 (which would be a break even point....if my math is correct) then consider doing so (remembering it was 339 ish a few weeks ago....might or might not break that)

What kind of weird logic is that? If he will be able to buy at the lower price that he sold he would always make profit (minus trading costs etc). Why does it have to go to $310 to make sense for him to sell at $430?

Btw, by the same logic people who buy at $930, could only sell at $430 if they expected bitcoin to fall to MINUS $70 Huh

EDIT: My point is, whether he should sell and buy back or not has *nothing* to do with his average buy-in price. It is about predicting future price of BTC and has nothing to do with his transaction history Wink

He said he bought at 550. So now its 430. If he sold now, he takes a 120 dive. In order to make up that 120, it needs to drop to 310 for him to buy back in.

This talk about "making up" losses does not make sense. This is faulty logic. Whatever your buy-in price is is, if you are long now and bitcoin falls down next $50 or $150 you would be better off selling now and buying back. Period. (If you think we are very close to the bottom or if your holding is very small, trading cost may eat the potential gain. Still, nothing to do with the cost of buying bitcoins.

YipYip

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High risk ...and a real novice move

What happens if you have a buy in @ 330 and it only hits 331 (this has happned to me on many occasions and to make a point I missed getting filled one time by 0.4 cents Sad

)

SO now where are you ...locked in 12 k loss and by the time you scramble to figure out what is going on and IF (big IF ) you are awake or at a terminal when all of this happens you can get a new market order on

1) Locked in 12k loss
2) Misssed getting filled
3) Missed the movement
= HIGH Risk

I think you have a 1 in 3 of this working for you ...On the trade you are talking about it could easily end up costing you 20-25k

The market loves smashing people into the ground Cool

spazzdla

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Quote from: Dalmar on May 06, 2014, 02:45:41 AM

Quote from: greatway on May 06, 2014, 02:44:33 AM

i think we won't see sub-400 again.

People said the same thing in March/early April... Cheesy

When it dipped below $400 for less than 8 hours............... Ya I wouldn't be to upset about that...

bitcoinsrus

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Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on May 06, 2014, 02:19:54 PM

Quote from: bitcoinsrus on May 06, 2014, 10:15:42 AM

well you would have to sell lower (430) and hopefully buy lower. Do the math and decide if it all makes sense.
Selling now at 430. If sold at 430, then you take 120 loss per btc. If you think it will go to 310 (which would be a break even point....if my math is correct) then consider doing so (remembering it was 339 ish a few weeks ago....might or might not break that)

What kind of weird logic is that? If he will be able to buy at the lower price that he sold he would always make profit (minus trading costs etc). Why does it have to go to $310 to make sense for him to sell at $430?

Btw, by the same logic people who buy at $930, could only sell at $430 if they expected bitcoin to fall to MINUS $70 Huh

EDIT: My point is, whether he should sell and buy back or not has *nothing* to do with his average buy-in price. It is about predicting future price of BTC and has nothing to do with his transaction history Wink

He said he bought at 550. So now its 430. If he sold now, he takes a 120 dive. In order to make up that 120, it needs to drop to 310 for him to buy back in.

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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Quote from: bitcoinsrus on May 06, 2014, 10:15:42 AM

well you would have to sell lower (430) and hopefully buy lower. Do the math and decide if it all makes sense.
Selling now at 430. If sold at 430, then you take 120 loss per btc. If you think it will go to 310 (which would be a break even point....if my math is correct) then consider doing so (remembering it was 339 ish a few weeks ago....might or might not break that)

What kind of weird logic is that? If he will be able to buy at the lower price that he sold he would always make profit (minus trading costs etc). Why does it have to go to $310 to make sense for him to sell at $430?

Btw, by the same logic people who buy at $930, could only sell at $430 if they expected bitcoin to fall to MINUS $70 Huh

EDIT: My point is, whether he should sell and buy back or not has *nothing* to do with his average buy-in price. It is about predicting future price of BTC and has nothing to do with his transaction history Wink

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

It could hit sub 400 in a handful of minutes if the markets were in the mood for it. It may well be sideways or down but the opportunities for increasing holdings big time by selling and buying back must be getting weaker.

It's more of a period for swooping in and out with a percentage of your holdings than betting everything.

Selling up now when lows have been repeated on several occasions and the end of the Chinese torture is dawning, is a pretty meaty risk compared to other times.

You'd have to stay up 24/7 to scoop up any dramatic drops.

Miz4r

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Quote from: MatTheCat on May 06, 2014, 09:53:08 AM

Quote from: liexel on May 06, 2014, 02:11:06 AM

Looks like the downtrend is continuing a little longer, whats the prediction on the bottom?

Sidenote: Ok i bought in on average at about $550, should i sell now and buy back in?

I should advise you that the majority of voters in polls on this website are ALWAYS WRONG!

Always wrong and always overly optimistic.

In that case by your own words we're not going below 400. But people are pretty divided, a 56.2% majority does not fall within a 95% confidence interval if you look at the number of voters. Then again this forum has a bullish bias, so a more representative poll will probably show a higher percentage of people who think we haven't seen the bottom yet.

bitcoinsrus

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Quote from: Bazil240 on May 06, 2014, 12:08:36 PM

Quote from: bitcoinsrus on May 06, 2014, 10:15:42 AM

well you would have to sell lower (430) and hopefully buy lower. Do the math and decide if it all makes sense.
Selling now at 430. If sold at 430, then you take 120 loss per btc. If you think it will go to 310 (which would be a break even point....if my math is correct) then consider doing so (remembering it was 339 ish a few weeks ago....might or might not break that)

Your math may be flawed. The price doesn't have to drop to 300 for him to break even.

For example, lets say he invested his 55k @ $550 (100 coins) with the hope of doubling his money. Easy if he holds; just wait unit the price hits $1100 and profit 55k.

However, he could sell now and take the 12k hit (ouch). And let's say he either gets impatient or he catches the bottom at $380. Doomed, right?

Well, not really. 43k @$380 nets him ~113 coins. If he sells at the same time as if he had held ($1100), he'll have 124k.

124 - 55 - 12 = 57k

If he "catches the knife" @ 300, then his profit will be 90k.

So whether or not it is a good idea to sell now depends on both when he buys back and when he sells. It is only riskier to sell now if you believe $430 is the bottom and your not willing to wait to sell when it does go back up (if he buys back in @ $400 for whatever reason he will have to wait all the way until $1150 instead of $1100 to "break even").

I think my math was probably flawed, so let me see again. He bought at 550. I said if he sold at 430, he would sell off 120 off each coin as a loss. For him to make up that 120, he would have to buy back in at 120 lower than 430 which is 310.

I agree with what you said about it going back to 1100, which is why I was telling him that maybe he should not hope to catch lower and be greedy because it could stay here (and most likely go a little more down).

You are probably right or close when it comes to his future potential profit if it goes higher. And I personally think its best to keep what you have, maybe miss out on several coins (rather than have it rally up because it might take time to liquidate the coins and then rebuy in etc).

Bazil240

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Quote from: bitcoinsrus on May 06, 2014, 10:15:42 AM

well you would have to sell lower (430) and hopefully buy lower. Do the math and decide if it all makes sense.
Selling now at 430. If sold at 430, then you take 120 loss per btc. If you think it will go to 310 (which would be a break even point....if my math is correct) then consider doing so (remembering it was 339 ish a few weeks ago....might or might not break that)

Your math may be flawed. The price doesn't have to drop to 300 for him to break even.

For example, lets say he invested his 55k @ $550 (100 coins) with the hope of doubling his money. Easy if he holds; just wait unit the price hits $1100 and profit 55k.

However, he could sell now and take the 12k hit (ouch). And let's say he either gets impatient or he catches the bottom at $380. Doomed, right?

Well, not really. 43k @$380 nets him ~113 coins. If he sells at the same time as if he had held ($1100), he'll have 124k.

124 - 55 - 12 = 57k

If he "catches the knife" @ 300, then his profit will be 90k.

So whether or not it is a good idea to sell now depends on both when he buys back and when he sells. It is only riskier to sell now if you believe $430 is the bottom and your not willing to wait to sell when it does go back up (if he buys back in @ $400 for whatever reason he will have to wait all the way until $1150 instead of $1100 to "break even").

HeliKopterBen

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Quote from: MatTheCat on May 06, 2014, 09:53:08 AM

I should advise you that the majority of voters in polls on this website are ALWAYS WRONG!

Always wrong and always overly optimistic.

Does this feel like a 'bottom' to you?

Grinding down on very low volume gradually working it's way lower and lower? Next time there is a spike in volume, is it more likely to be selling pressure smashing into BID walls or avid investors voraciously eating into Ask wall?

Hint: Look along the charts at the Feb/Mar and Mar/Apri period for a clue as to what comes next. Notice any similarities? Oooh, and wasn't the long term $380 support broken just 2-3 weeks ago?

I voted on $200-$300 range. In the meantime however, I think it is a pretty good bet that Bitcoin will need to test mid $300 again.

57.1% of voters in this poll are bearish at this point in time.

bitcoinsrus

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Quote from: liexel on May 06, 2014, 11:26:38 AM

Quote from: MatTheCat on May 06, 2014, 09:53:08 AM

I should advise you that the majority of voters in polls on this website are ALWAYS WRONG!

Always wrong and always overly optimistic.

Does this feel like a 'bottom' to you?

Grinding down on very low volume gradually working it's way lower and lower? Next time there is a spike in volume, is it more likely to be selling pressure smashing into BID walls or avid investors voraciously eating into Ask wall?

Hint: Look along the charts at the Feb/Mar and Mar/Apri period for a clue as to what comes next. Notice any similarities? Oooh, and wasn't the long term $380 support broken just 2-3 weeks ago?

I voted on $200-$300 range. In the meantime however, I think it is a pretty good bet that Bitcoin will need to test mid $300 again.

at the moment it does seem at least that 60% of people think it's still bearish at the moment. so possibly theres some truth to the wisdom of crowds.

Quote from: bitcoinsrus on May 06, 2014, 10:15:42 AM

well you would have to sell lower (430) and hopefully buy lower. Do the math and decide if it all makes sense.
Selling now at 430. If sold at 430, then you take 120 loss per btc. If you think it will go to 310 (which would be a break even point....if my math is correct) then consider doing so (remembering it was 339 ish a few weeks ago....might or might not break that)

if i invested $55,000 at $550, what i have at the moment is $43,000. so rather than holding it up till the price is $550 again, i could cash out out and buy again when it is $300, so it amounts to more than $55,000 when the price is back at $550.

well i hope i dont get burned.

Do you think it can reach 300? It went to 339 last time and hard large buy orders. Many bought way above your original buy in. IMO you probably should just call it a day. But if you think it can go lower, then you can rebuy in lower

liexel

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Quote from: MatTheCat on May 06, 2014, 09:53:08 AM

I should advise you that the majority of voters in polls on this website are ALWAYS WRONG!

Always wrong and always overly optimistic.

Does this feel like a 'bottom' to you?

Grinding down on very low volume gradually working it's way lower and lower? Next time there is a spike in volume, is it more likely to be selling pressure smashing into BID walls or avid investors voraciously eating into Ask wall?

Hint: Look along the charts at the Feb/Mar and Mar/Apri period for a clue as to what comes next. Notice any similarities? Oooh, and wasn't the long term $380 support broken just 2-3 weeks ago?

I voted on $200-$300 range. In the meantime however, I think it is a pretty good bet that Bitcoin will need to test mid $300 again.

at the moment it does seem at least that 60% of people think it's still bearish at the moment. so possibly theres some truth to the wisdom of crowds.

Quote from: bitcoinsrus on May 06, 2014, 10:15:42 AM

well you would have to sell lower (430) and hopefully buy lower. Do the math and decide if it all makes sense.
Selling now at 430. If sold at 430, then you take 120 loss per btc. If you think it will go to 310 (which would be a break even point....if my math is correct) then consider doing so (remembering it was 339 ish a few weeks ago....might or might not break that)

if i invested $55,000 at $550, what i have at the moment is $43,000. so rather than holding it up till the price is $550 again, i could cash out out and buy again when it is $300, so it amounts to more than $55,000 when the price is back at $550.

well i hope i dont get burned.

bitcoinsrus

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Activity: 518

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well you would have to sell lower (430) and hopefully buy lower. Do the math and decide if it all makes sense.
Selling now at 430. If sold at 430, then you take 120 loss per btc. If you think it will go to 310 (which would be a break even point....if my math is correct) then consider doing so (remembering it was 339 ish a few weeks ago....might or might not break that)

MatTheCat

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Quote from: liexel on May 06, 2014, 02:11:06 AM

Looks like the downtrend is continuing a little longer, whats the prediction on the bottom?

Sidenote: Ok i bought in on average at about $550, should i sell now and buy back in?

I should advise you that the majority of voters in polls on this website are ALWAYS WRONG!

Always wrong and always overly optimistic.

Does this feel like a 'bottom' to you?

Grinding down on very low volume gradually working it's way lower and lower? Next time there is a spike in volume, is it more likely to be selling pressure smashing into BID walls or avid investors voraciously eating into Ask wall?

Hint: Look along the charts at the Feb/Mar and Mar/Apri period for a clue as to what comes next. Notice any similarities? Oooh, and wasn't the long term $380 support broken just 2-3 weeks ago?

I voted on $200-$300 range. In the meantime however, I think it is a pretty good bet that Bitcoin will need to test mid $300 again.

Elwar

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Viva Ut Vivas

If it goes below $400 it will be quick and brief and if you have bids in place it will only hit them if they are small.

Malin Keshar

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if chinese exchanges stop deposits in chinese fiat for real, I expect 350, like the last bottom.

Dalmar

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Life is short, practice empathy in your life

Quote from: greatway on May 06, 2014, 02:44:33 AM

i think we won't see sub-400 again.

People said the same thing in March/early April... Cheesy

Topic: [Poll] What are the predictions on the bottom? (should i sell and buy back in) (Read 1476 times)