Topic: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin? (Read 228 times)

The option proposed by Charlie Munger seems to me the most possible, because fiat does not allow the governments of various countries to control the money of their citizens. I think fiat will replace the digital fiat on blockchain, which will be issued by central banks under the leadership of governments. At the moment, I believe that never and under no circumstances will bitcoin replace fiat \ digital fiat. The most that governments will allow is to invest in bitcoin while taking taxes on profits.

Therefore, I see the answer to the question of this topic in the 3rd answer option: "The leader of the crypto market, a niche currency and an alternative investment asset (like now)".

I am closest to the option "The leader of the crypto market, a niche currency and an alternative investment asset (like now)", because it somehow sounds most realistic to me at the moment, although it is impossible to estimate what attitude the world's greatest powers will take towards Bitcoin in the future. While some are reluctant to admit it, Bitcoin cannot succeed globally if it is banned or restricted in the US, EU, China, Russia, UK, or India, and we have different views in those countries, ranging from total bans, to discouraging people to invest in Bitcoin in a way that income taxes go over 50%.

If Bitcoin lasts long enough, maybe one day it will have an even bigger market cap than gold, because gold mining in the future goes beyond our planet, because there is gold on asteroids, and maybe on some planets in our solar system.

Judging by what we have seen so far, most people are not ready to replace fiat with any alternative, and whether it is out of ignorance, fear or something else remains a question.

Charlie Munger recently said FIAT is going to zero soon. What will replace FIAT? Gold has no mobility. The best candidates are crypto. Not necessarily bitcoin there isn't really many choices. The other option is ETH of course.

I'd like to see bitcoin taking over FIAT currencies but I don't think Bitcoin or any other currency can handle that kind of demand. The tech is not there yet.

The volatility factor is one of the features why many like bitcoin to be their asset. This is I think, will last for long. Though maybe in the future, the price may attain its stability. But for now, the volatility is the reason why there are many people going into this market. It will still lead all the crypto in my opinion. Some will emerge as better competitors but people will still patronize bitcoin as the main cryptocurrency.

Yeah, I agree that before people really want those stable currencies, as you can see in forex, we could really say that it is kinda stable if there is no news that could affect the market, but if we are talking cryptocurrency, almost every week something happens that makes a long candle, which is the time if you ride that bull run then you will be wealthy. People adore Bitcoin because of its volatility and current price, which is extremely high.

I have my doubts about this, because people prefer bitcoin volatility over being more stable. so the final scenario you thought up was very difficult to materialize. bitcoin is so loved for this, see how bitcoin make people rich in just a short time. One reason is volatility. so in the future bitcoin will stay like this.

I chose:
The leader of the crypto market, a niche currency and an alternative investment asset (like now)

and the next thing? No one really knows on when or how long it would last because there's no one could able to predict on what would happen in the future.
So other options or words in the poll isnt something that could really happen or nearly impossible but well who knows right? 

Probably The leader of the crypto market, a niche currency and an alternative investment asset (like now) or Major investment asset, it will rival gold.

Inside crypto market, bitcoin is unstoppable and imbatible. It is the first and original cryptocurrency among all and even though at some point a new superior cryptocurrency in technology, cost-benefit and usage is developed and heavily adopted, bitcoin will keep its position as a rare good or relic with historical value, while becoming more and more scarce each new day.

And being extremely or maybe utopically optimistic, bitcoin can rise to the status of gold, although I think it's unlikely, because physical precious metals will be always above any kind of virtual goods.

What about now? I think this is already known that btc is a rival of gold because they are always being compared to each other. Not to be biased but i think that btc is already a clear winner here because btc value have increased a lot year after year while gold merely show a gain. How much more in the future if btc became more mainstream? Gold is already known, it is old and rusty so I don't think there will be a major change in its value.

@OP
I voted for the 3rd choice in the poll because I think that is what suites bitcoin the most today and even in the future. Choices 4 and 5, I think have similarities. On choice number 4, you can remove  "A leading currency or asset ".

I voted for "major investment asset, it will rival gold", i would give quite a few reasons why i went with that choice, firstly i cannot state categorically that Bitcoin will overtake gold, yes it very well could or couldn't, but i am pretty sure it will rival gold sometime soon, even right now so many people already prefer Bitcoin to gold for many reasons, Btc is not yet a "safe haven" asset like gold is, but i am pretty certain that it will.

Having said that, if we take a look at the pace with which Bitcoin continues to develop and grow, with it being a perfect hedge to fiat inflation/devaluation and also attractive features like "being your bank" it offers its users, i am pretty sure Bitcoin is going to be the major investment asset, that is if it isn't already. There are many good things happening in the Bitcoin network, and since it is a long term sustainable project, generally its long term scenario is going to be good.

totally agree with this statement. bitcoin will be one of the investment instruments that will rival gold and people's views on bitcoin will be more positive in the future

... it will not be possible for bitcoin to become a currency that will replace the existing fiat currency, surely the central bank will prevent this from happening

On the one hand, I believe that more altcoins will keep popping up, few of which will have potential, not to rival Bitcoin of course, but to appear in the top charts, such examples are Cardano, BNB, Solana, Terra, and I'm pretty sure there are plenty other promising ones. Thus, I highly doubt that Bitcoin will surpass 80-90% dominance, like others suggested, it will still be the dominant cryptocurrency, but won't surpass such percentages for sure (currently sitting at 42%).

On the other hand, Bitcoin will most likely be considered an asset of high value, somewhat defeating its initial purpose, since people will be highly unlikely to use it for transactions, rivaling or even surpassing gold.

I believe Bitcoin has reached near the top of adoption for ordinary people/users, and corporations/institutions have started adopting it. It’s going to be ready for the next phase of adoption. NATION-STATES, bringing out the true nature of Bitcoin in international politics/geo-politics, which can weaken a rival’s dominance.

It will definitely be the store of value for the rich people and all of the rich people will invest their money in it and will leave gold but it seems like China will not be among those who will start in the early adopters because the people of that country started it first but the government is not in the favor of it while Russia and European countries are on the front line and after that USA may also follow to legalize bitcoin.

I would have done the same as well. I believe that it will not be the leader, I believe that there will be better ones in the future and then bitcoin will be top 10 for decades so I do not think that it will be gone. However, I believe that even while not being number one, it will be fighting above gold, not too much for a long time, it requires like 20-30 years at least to be away from gold if you ask me but in 10 years it will surely fight a level over gold. In that case multiple options is needed. Rivaling fiat is also a deal but major? I am not sure about that.

I think about dollar the moment I think about major fiat currencies and bitcoin being more valuable than dollar as a marketcap is impossible, that much I know for sure. Which is why I believe that it is really not that much possible for bitcoin to actually challenge a major one, but definitely be more valuable than some of them at lower nations.

Personally am much convince that one-day, bitcoin rivalry with gold will be contending and then people would have been satisfied that the two are the major investment and asset one could not afford doing without.

Thank you for your votes already. I'll not discuss the reasons for your vote as the purpose of this thread is to gather some opinions.

Just a remark about the poll itself:

It is intentional that there are not multiple options, everybody should pick the one which they feel like it could be the most likely one. The more positive/bullish options in the lower part of the poll already include the "achievements" assumed for the above part, for example the option "it will rival gold" assumes that it will remain also the leader of the crypto market. There are some weird scenarios where cryptocurrencies could become so popular that Bitcoin, in the case it was only #2 or #3 of the crypto market, could already rival gold; but I consider them unlikely. However, I'll add an "Other" option, just for the case.

Now that some have voted I can disclose my own vote: I personally think Bitcoin will at least rival gold, this is the option I selected. I don't rule out that it can overtake it (in fact I considered to vote for that option) as it has much more important qualities for the digital age, but tradition can be hard to beat.

Ah, as someone asked for the gold market cap (or better: "the value of all gold in the world"): many estimates I've seen are from 10-15 trillion USD (this estimate gives 12,5 T, and explains also in which form - jewellry, bars etc. - it exists) and thus @hatshepsut93 is right about Bitcoin's "market cap" (which also isn't really a market cap) being in the higher single digits percentage range but can go to double digits if we see another bull run.

Yep. As if the United States or pretty much 95% of governments would allow that to happen. Don't get me wrong — I think after some time bitcoin would probably be accepted widely(but probably mostly online), but overtake major fiat currencies? Nah man.

Major investment asset, rivaling gold. That's for around maybe at the middle of my life maybe? Honestly, even now, It already is one, though rivaling gold may still take some time. It may even exceed it honestly, but I'd probably still stand at the middle point.
But that's assuming that the Lightning Network would never be simplified no? As other currencies get developed, I reckon there'd also be QoL changes that would make Bitcoin rather easy to use for the average person, though they'd probably still need to understand a few general jargon. Unless a currency would follow the same system of the decentralized idea that Bitcoin had, I hardly think it'd be replaced as a top option.

It will be what gold was before, but with more features! I voted for that, it's how I imagine the long-term scenario for Bitcoin... simply Bitcoin has been on top for 10 years, and I think it will stay there! There are good coins around, great projects, but for now, I don't see some real competitors that can shake Bitcoin first place in the near future!
I would like to see Bitcoin overtaking major fiat currencies, but what are the chances for that to happen?! I guess very very low, and even with some low chances, I think we are talking about some distant future!