[poll]Bitfury. What do you think? - page 2.

baloo_kiev

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Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: gyverlb on May 14, 2013, 06:02:56 AM

Quote from: baloo_kiev on May 14, 2013, 05:55:28 AM

Quote from: gyverlb on May 13, 2013, 01:48:27 PM

Forgot to vote.
I'm wondering if I'll have time/BTC to buy more 100TH-mine shares before they skyrocket like ASICMINER did... Wink

I guess you know how I voted...

How could it skyrocket if the price is already 0.5 BTC/GH, which is higher than current Bitfury price of 0.16 BTC/GH? Unlike ASICMINER, 100TH is just 0.2 GH per share without any future reinvestment/upgrade plans so far. Right?

100TH-mine: last price 0.139BTC/share, 518271 total shares, 104TH/s projected hashrate : 1,44GH/s per BTC

ASICMINER: last price 1.62BTC/share, 400000 total shares, 262TH/s projected hashrate : 0,4GH/s per BTC

Can't guess where you got your numbers from.

So it's not 0.5 but 0.7 per GH. But that's even more! I didn't compare it's price to AM. I compared it to Bitfury's devices. With AM you get a share in all their income for a lifetime, with 100TH you get only 0.2 GH per share. AM did not give half of their chips to a third-party project.

gyverlb

hero member

Activity: 896

Merit: 1000

Quote from: baloo_kiev on May 14, 2013, 05:55:28 AM

Quote from: gyverlb on May 13, 2013, 01:48:27 PM

Forgot to vote.
I'm wondering if I'll have time/BTC to buy more 100TH-mine shares before they skyrocket like ASICMINER did... Wink

I guess you know how I voted...

How could it skyrocket if the price is already 0.5 BTC/GH, which is higher than current Bitfury price of 0.16 BTC/GH? Unlike ASICMINER, 100TH is just 0.2 GH per share without any future reinvestment/upgrade plans so far. Right?

100TH-mine: last price 0.139BTC/share, 518271 total shares, 104TH/s projected hashrate : 1,44GH/s per BTC

ASICMINER: last price 1.62BTC/share, 400000 total shares, 262TH/s projected hashrate : 0,4GH/s per BTC

Can't guess where you got your numbers from.

baloo_kiev

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: gyverlb on May 13, 2013, 01:48:27 PM

Forgot to vote.
I'm wondering if I'll have time/BTC to buy more 100TH-mine shares before they skyrocket like ASICMINER did... Wink

I guess you know how I voted...

How could it skyrocket if the price is already 0.5 BTC/GH, which is higher than current Bitfury price of 0.16 BTC/GH? Unlike ASICMINER, 100TH is just 0.2 GH per share without any future reinvestment/upgrade plans so far. Right?

cedivad

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1001

Interesting reply, thank you.
Still, i won't invest into them because i have not enough trust in it and i have no need to gamble.

If they where more transparent, maybe i would have invested something.

gyverlb

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Activity: 896

Merit: 1000

Quote from: cedivad on May 13, 2013, 02:03:07 PM

What are the most concrete proofs we have that it's not a scam?

-Bitfury as far as i know never sold his fpga-rack
-They did not published any contract with the fab
-They are late (maybe this is normal?)
-The IPO imo was a joke (noone from the forum as far as i know invested, they already had private investors, impossible to verify)
-The bitbet.us bet could be a way to fool us (100btc? who cares of 100btc?)

Also, isn't 0.7W/GH some amazing achievement? What kind of nm would that require? If i recall it correctly the ipo didn't earn them a lot of money, something in the range of avalon batch 1 or asicminer (<500k$).

What's your tough?

Bitfury doesn't disclose much of his operations. But if they didn't sell their fpga-rack, I'd like to know where they found the money to build them...
Not disclosing contracts is standard: I've never disclosed any contract I made to a third party and don't see why I should (in fact they are considered private by default and disclosing them would be at least a breach of trust).
I don't see where Bitfury is late, the 100TH-mine doesn't seem to be either. What are the delays you are referring to?
It's no secret that Bitfury has private clients and didn't need to make a public IPO (edit: in fact I think the 100TH-mine is mainly under tytus control and as one of the very first Bitcoin pioneers and pool operators he has contacts too). That's too bad for us for not being invited from the beginning but I don't see what it has to do with scamming people.
You don't care for 100BTC? See my tip address below and don't be shy if you have several of these I promise I won't invest it all in the 100TH-mine.

In fact the main reason I decided to invest in the 100TH-mine is because I've read technical discussions between eldentyrrel and bitfury on the forum. I know this guy is good technically (in the "awesome" ballpark kind of good: eldentyrrel and bitfurry are the only ones I know to have made stable Spartan6 bitstreams above 230MH/s). There's still risk of course but if the project fails or underperforms I don't think it will be because of lack of technical skills.

cedivad

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1001

What are the most concrete proofs we have that it's not a scam?

-Bitfury as far as i know never sold his fpga-rack
-They did not published any contract with the fab
-They are late (maybe this is normal?)
-The IPO imo was a joke (noone from the forum as far as i know invested, they already had private investors, impossible to verify)
-The bitbet.us bet could be a way to fool us (100btc? who cares of 100btc?)

Also, isn't 0.7W/GH some amazing achievement? What kind of nm would that require? If i recall it correctly the ipo didn't earn them a lot of money, something in the range of avalon batch 1 or asicminer (<500k$).

What's your tough?

gyverlb

hero member

Activity: 896

Merit: 1000

Forgot to vote.
I'm wondering if I'll have time/BTC to buy more 100TH-mine shares before they skyrocket like ASICMINER did... Wink

I guess you know how I voted...

baloo_kiev

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Dexter770221, of course those numbers are unrealistic. But it's clear that they have no hard limits and may well increase the first batch by another 100-200TH if they have enough pre-order money in June. This may have significant impact on total network hashrate and miners' profits.
That's why it sounds strange to me when people talk about 130 days breakeven period even for hardware available today (like ASICMINER blades).
No breakeven in two months = probably no breakeven ever.
Sorry for offtopic in this scam/no scam poll thread.

Dexter770221

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Merit: 1000

Quote from: gyverlb on May 13, 2013, 10:20:37 AM

Quote from: Dexter770221 on May 13, 2013, 06:35:47 AM

22PH/s = 15 400 000W = 15.4 Gigawatt

Unit FAIL.

Yep, you right. Sorry 15.4 Megawatt.
But we may consider another perspective...
2k wafers with 4k chips on it. That gives as 8 000 000 bare chips. They need to be cut from wafer and put into package. Even if fab would put one in a second (and I doubt that it is so fast) that gives 92 days to complete. And that's only the beggining of making working device....

gyverlb

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Quote from: Dexter770221 on May 13, 2013, 06:35:47 AM

22PH/s = 15 400 000W = 15.4 Gigawatt

Unit FAIL.

cedivad

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Activity: 1176

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Dexter770221 on May 13, 2013, 06:35:47 AM

We will not see 22PH/s increase monthly. Not with this gen of devices becuse power grids will not handle this.

Interesting numbers

Bitcoin is becoming huge!

Dexter770221

legendary

Activity: 1029

Merit: 1000

Power consumption perspective:
Bitfury says 0.7W/Gigahash (whole device). So:
1TH/s = 700W
1PH/s = 700 000W
22PH/s = 15 400 000W = 15.4 Gigawatt
Largest producer of electricy in the world: USA has 1152.8 Gigawatt power infrastructure.
Adding 1.5% monthly will crash whole system in 6 months becuse it's not possible to increase that much in so short period of time.
Summary:
We will not see 22PH/s increase monthly. Not with this gen of devices becuse power grids will not handle this.

baloo_kiev

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Well, at first it could be 200TH. But then...

Quote from: bitfury on April 23, 2013, 03:30:41 AM

...
вooбщe чипы пpoизвoдить в paзyмныx пepeдeлax нeт oгpaничeний. Oднa плacтинa - ~4412 чипoв (гoдныx eщe нe извecтнo кoличecтвo). Maкc. пpoизвoдcтвo кoтopoe нe тpyднo зaкaзывaть (нe тpeбyeт экcтpaopдинapнoгo coглacoвaния плaнoв пpoизвoдcтвa) - этo <= 2000 плacтин в мecяц. Фaбpикa тoлькo paдa бyдeт. Этo эээ - 22 _ПETAXEШA_ в мecяц. Дopocти-бы дo тaкиx oбъeмoв былo кpyтo... Taк чтo кpизиca в видe нexвaтки чипoв нe гpoзит. Xoтя лoкaльныe кpизиcы бyдyт - к пpимepy мы зaкaзaли и ждeм 2-3 мecяцa. И ecли ктo-тo xoчeт eщe - тo мы yжe нe мoжeм "пepeбить" paнee зaкaз и "дoбaвить" плacтинy дaжe oднy. Пoэтoмy oднa из цeлeй Tимypa (мeтaбaнкa) - cpaзy выдaть нaм cвoй oптoвый зaкaз в Июнe, чтoбы мы cpaзy зaкaзaли нyжнoe кoличecтвo плacтин.
...

Translation: In general, there's almost no limits for sane chip production volumes. One wafer ~4412 chips (how many of them working is still unknown). Maximal production volume which is not hard to order (no extraordinary production planning) is <=2000 wafers per month. Factory will be glad! That's 22 PETAHASH per month. It would be cool to grow to these limits... So there will be no chip crisis. Well, some local crisis may exist, for example we might wait for 2-3 months. We cannot increase number of wafers in an already ordered batch. One of Metabank's goals is to give us a bulk order in June, so we can order right amount of wafers.
---

You see? They can produce practically any number of chips. So if tomorrow a huge investor or a group of them walk into his place and gives cash for 22 petahash/s... we might see them online in September-October.

kaerf

hero member

Activity: 631

Merit: 500

i believe initially it is 200+ TH/s

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1675144

Fanatic

newbie

Activity: 210

Merit: 0

Quote

how many chips

400TH

baloo_kiev

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Well, even if it's not scam, there are still some problems with it.

Quote from: naima53 on May 12, 2013, 11:21:46 AM

In February this year, a meeting with investors Bitfury (including metabank) and has been the start of a new generation of ASIC...
In March, the launch of an engineering-based factory UMC (Taiwan) in which the design of the chip was fully coordinated and approved by the experts of the factory...
In May, the plate will be obtained, and the first test chips are expected in June...
We announce the readiness to sell part of its share of chips for pre-order and the further distribution of products Bitfury in Russia.

What I see is that there are multiple investors, and one of them (Metabank) is going to sell part of its chips. The main question which comes into my head is how many chips are they going to produce in total. They are not giving any numbers. It could end up in August like "Here are your devices, we ship them in time and the specs are even better than was announced! BTW, the factory has already produced 100,000 chips and we are licensing it to other factories, most chips going to investors, happy mining!"

mistfpga

member

Activity: 86

Merit: 13

I dunno, if anyone is capable then it is Bitfury, from my conversations they are straight shooters and really really know their onions.

If V reckons that they can do that, then it would be a brave man to bet against bitfury. imho.

I know butfury are not that active on this board, but they are a real company with some of the finest minds i have had the pleasure to talk with.

edit lol @

Quote

Personally, I think that this scam because bitfury admitted in a public conversation that he has no higher (university) education but it is going to make the chips.

I know I laughed but seriously that is actually a bit harsh, do you have the skills to judge whether bitfury can complete this or not? you are more or less admitting that you dont, so therefore they are scammers??

I have no idea if they are scammers or not, what I do know is that they have at least 2 members of their team that are really really good with electronics and chip design. - superhuman good... I have been waiting for them to make an announcement about asics since last year

they have the talent to pull this off.

Chet

full member

Activity: 121

Merit: 100

I put my BTC on what I think.
Thanks

naima53

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 502

Topic: [poll]Bitfury. What do you think? - page 2. (Read 5381 times)