I also consider this to be the most likely scenario. In my opinion, recent increases are too early if we assume that price history will repeat itself. I think that now the most likely is a large drop in price and its slow increase until the end of the year. Later, after a few months after halving, rapid growth should start and run for the new ATH. Of course, it may look different, and everything can happen earlier, but I think that still this is not the beginning of the bull run.