Topic: POS VS POW effect on valuation of bitcoin - page 2. (Read 545 times)

Was not just talking about ETH but PoS coins in general. Think of the dozens and dozens out there.

How many more machines are going to be running?
How many older less efficient machines are going to kept on 24/7?
How many new PCs will be bought because someone is keeping their old one instead of donating it to a charity.
How many hours will people loose out of their lives setting up what is needed to get PoS running on that machine and verify it's all working properly.
And so on.....
And then you also have the flip side. I use older miners that have hash boards removed and slower more quiet fans as space heaters for parts of the condo during the winter.
Can't really do that with a PC running a PoS coin.....

I need to have my work PC running 24/7 so I use 1 core (of of the CPU to work with Folding@home to mine some curecoin which is also PoS since what the hell it's up and running anyway. But that's an edge case. For most people running a PC 24/7 is a waste of power.

-Dave

using loose numbers from memory (you can do exact math if you wish)

currently there are ~10m GPU's PoW ethereum
as oppose to the ~1.5m asics PoW bitcoin
enjoy doing the maths if you want to work it out yourself

ethereum is not greener than bitcoin while at PoW stage

as for when Ethereum does PoS it will be ~400,000 pc's staking because the min threshold just to be a low laying voter is like 32eth.. (13m staked /32eth=~400k stakers (if all were unique individual rather then combined/custodianized))

but yes. if they all pooled stake. then it would be just a hand full of exchange

as for the topic of valuation.
the 10m GPU (1 peta network /100mhash GPU) which use about 300watt each.
vs post PoS estimates by some of 400k using about 100watts each

is a 75x decrease in cost.. but thats on the scenario of unique stakers for all 400k stakes..
better estimates done and even agreed with by those in ethereum is that its not going to be 400k unique pc's staking.
they assume the xfaxtor to be more like 2000x less
(the ~15,000 full archival nodes bitcoin is undercounted as using by bitnodes)

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other food for thought about other altcoins and the environment stuff of "greener"

take elons bitcoin vs doge environment speaches

Doge is not some ASIC farm system where farmers choose area's of reliable renewable energy contracts..
its home hobby miners not in control of the energy source.
DOGE is dirtier % of renewable because those mining doge are stuck with what is available where they live.
DOGE people do not relocate to green regions specifically to mine.
so on a % of dirty vs clean. bitcoin is cleaner then DOGE

but % is always subjective.
..
if ethereum was to be individual stakers of individual people in residential area's where relocating is not an option.. the % of clean energy vs dirty will make ethereum look dirty on a % bases. even if the AMOUNT number seems lower on a KWH bases..

but % is always subjective.
.. in a number amount. to be fair.. yea bitcoin is dirtier. but thats because its more widely used and secured and protected where that energy is actually used for security, protection and utility

The other thing not being discussed is are PoS coins REALLY greener if they are not using centralized pools?

Oh, running a PC is WAY less power then running a miner. But how many PCs that are running a PoS node are now going to be running 24/7 vs a few hours a day when someone is home and taking care of things? How many more older more power hungry devices will be turned into staking machines? There are huge mining farms in upstate NY that are almost 100% hydro power.

How many old PCs burning 'only 150 watts or so' for people in an area that uses old coal plants to generate power will cause it to be less green then a 10 PH/s hydro powered facility?

-Dave

yes.
not everyones private wallet of just a couple PoS coin could be staked. so they wont get passive income. so they are incentivised to pool it up into exchanges to have custody of it so that the customer can get a share of the combined stake in exchange custody rewards,

with exchanges holding custody of millions of coins. users wont want their coins vanishing so wont want to punish an exchange if an exchange does something odd.. punishing an exchange becomes punishing its customer(the users themselves)

they wont want to fork away from an exchange because then they cant see their own coin withdrawals/stakes. so they end up blindly following whatever whims an exchange wants just to stay in contact with the exchange and still have funds..

by exchanges having the pools stake of its customers.. its not actually exchanges personal value to lose. its their customers funds. so an exchange has nothing to lose. but knows its customer does.. so the exchange knows the customers are not going to go against the exchange.
people jsut end up blindly trusting an exchange wont do anything bad/accidental

this makes the exchanges become the decision makers and the users/customers the blind followers fearful that if they go against the exchange the customer loses its value.

Thanks for your explanation..What i understood is that when energy consumption will decrease..  will this lead to a real shift to  POS  based consensus?
But POS based solana is a POS based blockchain still it's not doing really great

Yes, it's the lack of profitability. Not the difficulty to understanding mining bitcoin and acquiring the required knowledge. Sure.

None does. That's where the game theory relies upon. You're just too brainless to acknowledge that checkpoints don't protect you against such attack, for if they did, no energy would be required.

That's why they'll withdraw their security deposits before their cheating attempt. There's no punishment to double-signing a past block. Nothing-at-stake is a fundamental problem that comes from lack of objectivity, and it's potential for every Proof-of-Stake cryptocurrency.

Exactly, but not necessarily pool. If a centralized exchange gets hacked, and the hacker gets all the PoS units, besides financial power, he also gains voting power.

Love the hypocrisy and virtue signaling, the poor for sure have enough capital to risk in some highly speculative, low utility, unregulated, snake oil shitcoin that forces them to luck up their capital to have any consensus power. It’s way cheaper to run a node on Bitcoin and actually being able to enforce rules or refusing/ accepting protocol changes.

Does the absolute amount of pools matter, when most capital will be controlled by just a few hands and locking up capital is also a privilege that mostly wealthy people have?

What prevents the majority of capital holders to just use many pools for attacks?

You still forget that there is a separation of powers, nodes matter.

I am sure that's true for some POS coins, but not all of them. I know that some have different slashing mechanisms where stakers and validators will lose part of their stake if they act maliciously. Since it's not in their interest to lose money, the slashing feature forces them to do the right thing.

Are you talking about a validator (exchange or private entity) stealing the tokens from the pool and staking them in their own name? That's always a possibility when the coins are not under your control, sure.

 

The cost of the mining equipment and the cost of energy , and the warehouse rental forbid anyone but the rich from PoW mining.
Entry by the poor has been banned for years due to lack of profitability of PoW mining.

---

Cardano has over 3000 staking pools, while BTC less than 20 mining pools,
cardano is coded to prevent large pools from becoming a majority, bitcoin has no code to safeguard the 51% danger.
If you can't understand how 3000 is more decentralized than 20, you might want to study harder for your GED.  

If you fail to understand how wasting energy becomes an attack vector, then go play with your crayons.
PoS easily outperform btc in security, onchain transaction capacity , speed of transaction , and transaction finality like in Algorand,
something bitcoin will never achieve.

How lame are the btc cultist that pizza is what they thinks makes a coin network.
https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/papa-murphys-now-accepts-cardano-ada-as-pizza-payment-2487720

https://www.acceptedhere.io/catalog/currency/cardano/

Personally prefer Japanese Food.
https://emurgo.io/cardano-ada-payment-tamuken/


Compare transaction fees of Proof of Waste verses Proof of Stake , so you can see how stupid it is to use btc for payments.
In addition , btc superslow blockspeed makes it unsuitable for use in a payment service at a Restaurant,
Cardano on the otherhand superfast blockspeed is more than suitable for transaction completion as fast as a visa card.

Sad thing, about btc cultist, try reading something other than the BTC circlejerk that goes on in these forums daily,
you might learn why PoS has left PoW in the dirt and that PoS won the supposed war years ago.

There is a reason their are no new PoW coins, PoW tech is a dead man walking, and everyone knows it except the bitcoin cultist.

Seems like there's at least one problem you forgot... to me at least. BlackHatCoiner details it and I simply sum it up as objective security. PoS is... subjective incentive. You can call it whatever you want. PoS certainly knows how to churn out the labels... delegated voting, block producers, federations, rotating validators, quadratic votes, treasuries, slashing, epochs, etc. They're still figuring themselves out like a kid who discovered Sartre after a break up (not me, friend of mine, of course).

Oh and what, Cardano solving centralised pools? You referring to the big Press Release they took out in 2021 to announce they've become 100% decentralised? How... decentralised of Cardano to get the community to collectively pay for sponsored press releases.

Energy efficiency has to take into account cost-benefit. I'm struggling to find the benefit of most PoS coins in terms of utility. If it's just cost and no benefit (other than speculation), that's not a matter of efficiency but a waste.

As franky1 points out (damn franky now I have to reference you), shitcoins have no utility. It's a bad word I hate to use but yeah, show me a pizza place taking ADA. In fact, show me a transaction you've made to pay for something someone sold you. I'm curious.

when eth merges to PoS where the cost conditions kicks in causing a redraw of the value down to single digits.. thus create a market crash... those holding coins they bought for thousands that will become only a few $'s.. they will get peed off. they will drop ETH as a pegging chain. as all those pegged sidenets and altnets would drop in price/value too.

they would prefer to seek a chain that has good value that wont just do a PoS detonation
they will wake up to the value lack of PoS

once people with under 32eth realise they cant "solo" stake or get passive income independently and instead stake into pools(exchanges)... again they will see the centralisation of ETH increase where exchanges start being the decision makers/controllers (follow my rules or be forked.. where you cant see my transactions and cant get your coins back..  also lose your locked funds if you punish me via punishments, thus lose your own value by not following me)

when people lock up their stake with an exchange.. they are giving the exchange the control. but none of the costs. its not an exchanges own earnings being staked its their customers.. so customer are unlikely to punish an exchange if the customers own funds are locked in..
meaning customers become sheep following the exchanges plans

again they will want a currency thats more decentralised without those games too, thus PoW would look more appealing

If there’s only one sane coin left, it will make choices even easier. Bitcoin will benefit from it, it’s that simple. Each time some project or politicians goes rogue, Bitcoin stands there as a sane choice. And the amount of quality choices is getting smaller and smaller currently.

People aren’t blind. They already come into Bitcoin because of this. It won’t bend to bad decisions and virtue signaling, just like now. When the competition is crippling themselves it just makes things easier.

Fiat being ridiculous is a strong reason to go into Bitcoin. And PoS projects being ridiculous is even a stronger reason to do it. So in my opinion it will reach a higher market value, if there’s any effect at all.

If ETH switches to PoS and operates for a few years without any attacks on the consensus, then the voices that call for Bitcoin to switch to PoS for environmental reasons will become louder, but I doubt that they will be loud enough to actually stir Bitcoin in that direction. Only if PoS will be proven 100% safe will there be serious discussions if Bitcoin should swap to it, but that's a hella big IF. So don't worry about it too much, let ETH do it first and see how it goes.

the one thing i dislike about all crypto numbers of price and value.
is we associate it with dollars. where the mindset is to price/value it at a rate americans recognise.
it ignores places like africa's sentiments. desires, access

take for instance the fee's... americans think bitcoin fee's are ok. because its like $1. which is not even 6 minutes of minimum wage labour($10/h).. completely IGNORING that its actually like 3+ HOURS of african minimum wage labour($0.3/h) for most africans to just make a bitcoin transaction.

even the PRICE of an asic is priced in btc but based on AMERICAN currency comparison.
a $11k asic might be 6 months min wage labour for an american. meaning an average american can save up and buy an asic.. yet for an african.. its 330,000 hours of african labour nearly 38 years labour to afford an asic
thus pricing africans out of buying an asic.

if only in when markets started emerging in 2010 we didnt market price bitcoin in dollars. but instead in "min mage labour hours"
EG
if 1btc wasnt $6 in 2012 but "1minwage labour hour" where that converts in africa to $0.33(their dollar price)
                                                                             where that converts in america to $7.50(their dollar price)

bitcoin could have truly revolutionised wallstreet and disrupted it. by letting people arbitrage forex. to take advantage.
where an african can mine 1btc locally and sell it remotely for USD and then convert it to african currency and cycle cycle cycle. and americans can convert USD to african buy btc remotely at african rate africa.. sell it back to the US market and cycle cycle cycle..
causing FOREX disruption. while having bitcoin as the fair system for the world to work equally on
but hey. that didnt happen and so the african unbanked are not getting the benefits of bitcoin due to the americanised pricing ignorance of those that want to use the USD as a price point

Of course, "the rich will always have more power than the poor" is always confirmed. Even though, here's some significant differences:

Proof-of-Work:

• You can't forbid or affect the entrance of new voters. Therefore, the money you've allocated for mining might not provide the same percentage of security they once did. Thus, your reward isn't ensured. If the difficulty rises, your reward drops.
• You can't cheat the system without being punished, since you're spending energy.
• It's incredibly difficult to steal ASICs/GPUs, on your way to acquire the votes.

Proof-of-Stake:

• The entrance of new voters is down to you and the rest of the stakers to approve, since to stake new voters need to acquire the units directly from you. Your reward is very well known, and you risk nothing to continue staking.
• You can cheat the system with no punishment. See "Nothing-at-stake problem".
• It's incredibly easy for, say an exchange's hacker, to steal the system's units and stake them for their benefit.

And that's before we even talk about the importance of objectivity in a decentralized decision-making system.

Putting the security of the network and the centralization aside when it comes to POS, how are the rich not in a favorable position over the poor in Bitcoin as well? In mining, for example. Do I have a chance to mine a block with my poor man's computer when I am competing against mining farms that have tens and hundreds of thousands of ASICS? Unlikely. So what do I need to improve my chances? Expensive hardware that costs money. Me being the poor bastard I am from a third world country can't afford it. That's how those with more resources will always dominate the ones that have not much to spend.     

If that were true, you would have left btctalk years ago.

How many times have the blockstream babies slam you down, almost daily by my count.
Even banned you from the development forum.  

You have a need to argue that borders on a mental disorder.  
Which is why I have to be careful at how much of my time, I let you waste.

what legendaryK does is try to promote his favoured cordano

funny because he pretends he is not interested and dislikes bitcoin. much like i dont care for.. pfft. pidgeons(insert any example).. where i for instance wouldnt bother trying to get on a pidgeon website. id just get on with my life going places that do interest me..
yet here he is on a bitcoin website. trying his dang hardest to advertise his pidgeon, ops i mean cordano

here is some there thoughts
yet in all my travels in all the merchants i visited i have not seen cordano once mentioned as a things they accept. nor have i seen any large number of hundreds of thousands of businesses even show a sign of liking cordano as a utility they prefer. (i must admit i dont waste much time asking merchants about it) but i seem to always find many merchants, without prompting show their interest in bitcoin

i have seen soo many businesses running, using and starting up in the bitcoin arena.

but hey.
if he wants to use something with no underlying costs ba pennies. thus no base value. he can speculate all he wants

but if you want to speculate on the features and benefits to come to a price point of sentiment about how much PRICE cordano should play with.. well just look at the number of businesses/people involved. and then you will see why it sells at under $1
..
that all said
cordano is not a investment or meant as a having a value based economics.. its more of a product/tool of the speculative realm. . so do away with that stuff of economic speculation in regards to cordano. you will never win long term. if you just deal with it potential of the utility features. then its a fair price. just dont expect people to speculate it up to $XXK values.
treat it as a cheap coin. for its functional features.  but yea, its a niche thing not a main thing.

edit to answer below:
funny how you notice that the ones that debate me and want me banned are those that advertise altnets and sidechains and altcoins and really hate it when i call them out on their flaws and issues that do not help bitcoin, but instead stifle bitcoin just to highlight THEIR view of the future being away from the bitcoin network. .

as for me being on this forum alot. well its called technology. you know wi-fi, satellites, 5g. it means i can travel and talk at the same time. (though covid lockdowns ddid put a delay in many of my plans)

as for my need to reply with a comment that opposes the person i quote or reference..
personally im not an ass kisser, replying just to agree or to kiss and hug and lick people when they have made a good comment. thus there is no point replying to good comments because the good comments have already said all thats needed.  but obviously if someone misses a point then the topic requires added thoughts and comments to add detail or correct things.
so when you see me comment yes its because im seeing that the previous posts lack something. if you take it as a insult/harm/attack. maybe try researching better. thus get less replies trying to correct or add detail to things you miss out

Bitcoin Cultists would prefer that bitcoin dies before a conversion to Proof of Stake.
Let them have their way.  

In the meantime, Proof of Stake have been around since 2013, so ~10 years,
their are no new PoW coins, because every developer knows it is a dying tech due to it's excessive energy waste.
Majority of PoW miners lose money and only survive off of venture capitalist funding, which is drying up now due to baby boomer retirement.

Easy solution is just ignore the dying btc pow cult and buy/stake your favorite Proof of Stake coins.
And let BTC PoW tech find it's own way to the refused to evolve graveyard.  

Proof of Stake has solved how to keep pools from becoming centralized   :Cardano
Proof of Stake has solved the energy efficiency issue.                             :All PoS coins.
Proof of Stake has solved transaction finality.                                         :Algorand


While Proof of Waste has only solved how to waste even more energy every year with zero increase in performance.

(i say all this in humour. not as a argument. so smile while reading it. its not a fight)

hey if you dont like my pencil math number of about $3.60/eth.. then try your own math out.
add in your own variables. set your own valuation. im not the cost controller. im just giving example of pen and brain math for easy demo..

but hey even ethereum themselves are highlighting their 99.95% less energy usage (cost)
..
i was just doing some pencil and brain maths, even if i dont explain it all
400k validators at 6k blocks a day is ~66 days. so guess why i rounded to ~75 days .. mhm. yep i included the initial block download and other factors and 75 seemed like a good buffer round number to use instead.. and so i didnt stick to the 66day number (which would have been far cheaper)
heck i didnt even use rasberry Pi possible lower costs. so i think its a fair valuation


point is though in normal daily cooperative function of good mining of both PoW/PoS. costs are 2000x difference. causing a 2000x difference in underlying value.

when talking about "good miners" the penalties dont trigger. so i was going with the good miner cost scenario(les variables to wall of text about. trying not to wall of text waffle all variables etc was me being considerate for once

the point being.. and why i even mention ethereum. is they are going through this very scenario right now
the general cost of not malicious-no bug, no error no reject no penalty trigger mining is a 2000x difference. heck even ethereum are picking up on that point and using it as part of their advertising strategy with their 99.95% energy usage(cost) reduction

you can spend hours trying to calculate other costs if penalties are triggered or blocks are rejected in both PoW and PoS

oh and we could have long debates of walls of text about other factors.like
how most of that stake is not actually on 400k pc's where each pc waits upto 75 days from its startup. but instead staked on exchange where its 1 exchange node doing the block signing on behalf of thousands of stakers who dont have to IBD or stay online 24/7
like how its not everyone waits 75 days as some might be lucky and sign multiply blocks within that time and some may wait longer. but hey its an average.

but hey.. the exact refined amount to the penny amount is not the point its the general point of being "a heck of alot cheaper to mine" causing the value people are willing to sell at be a heck of alot less

even ethereum are using the "heck of alot cheaper to mine" when they are promoting the 99.95% less energy usage than PoW..

(separate detail unrelated to the 99.95% energy/cost /value stuff..  and more about the security lacking of PoS)
oh and i also hinted at one of the FLAWS of PoS (staked on exchanges) where those exchanges also being a needed service in of itself as a gateway to fiat and merchant tools. becomes an influencer of blind following where people end up following the whims of an exchange just to stay on the fork the exchange wants to be on so they can still work with an exchange.. and ofcourse not want to lose their stake at the same time if they did fork away from an exchanges proposed blocks which becomes a double penalty for the customer(not the exchange) if the customers want to go-against a exchanges whims.. . thus giving exchanges double influencer/power of network control.. but shh thats a whole different debate for a different topic