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Topic: Possible impacts of ASIC mining and hypothetical scenarios (Read 3442 times)

legendary
Activity: 1270
Merit: 1000
I do seem to recall they clearly stated they would not mine with their devices prior to shipping.
Citation needed. I don't know why they wouldn't, the chips certainly need burn-in to eliminate the bad ones.

No, chip testing is quite a problem in semiconductior industry since  the are only a few seconds per die to decide whether it meets the specs or not. So complicated devices have build in BIST (build in self test) and even RAM chips have such provisions. Since SHA is quite regular and each flipflop is toggling every second  clock cycle it would be take only very few hashes where you compare the output  of some known input patterns against the precomputed output pattern.

Of course  there are other points of failure bur this would require them their other equipment, for instance their power cables at maximum current in a climate chamber.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1001
Let the chips fall where they may.
If they start Mining with one of their $30,000 (1Thash/s) mining rigs, it should show up on Bitcoin Charts (as 5% of the network).
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1186
I do seem to recall they clearly stated they would not mine with their devices prior to shipping.
Citation needed. I don't know why they wouldn't, the chips certainly need burn-in to eliminate the bad ones.
donator
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
And let an opportunity to make profit pass? How is that rational?
Merely due to the company's honor?

I do seem to recall they clearly stated they would not mine with their devices prior to shipping.

After all, they have a reputation to maintain.
It'll be interesting how that "promise" plays out. I think the damage to the reputation wouldn't be huge. Also there's plausible deniability: "don't have enough manpower to ship above a certain rate"... and in the meantime, why should the devices stay idle?

I expect some sort of excuses. But that's fine. I actually think it's fair for BFL to do self-mining. After all it's the privilege of the innovator in a free market to keep the profit (and pay taxes...).

The only thing I think is not fair is their pre-order strategy: They likely used the pre-order money to finance the chip production, which is very much in the gray area, because the customers didn't agree to a risk of default, should the chip production fail.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
And let an opportunity to make profit pass? How is that rational?
Merely due to the company's honor?

I do seem to recall they clearly stated they would not mine with their devices prior to shipping.

After all, they have a reputation to maintain.

-- edit --
Nope, I was wrong.

We use EasyMiner's built in evaluation function to burn test, not the live network.  Why?  Because the live network isn't a very good test.  Meaningful performance evaluation requires known problem sets with known results.  With live mining, you miss out on absolute confirmation of work.  Network inconsistencies further cloud performance testing metrics.  However, after units have been cleared, they're tested on a live pool connection as a last minute sanity check.  What you're looking at with that burn in account is the cumulative result of six months sanity check live testing.

Our primary objective is delivering product as soon as we can.  We do not hold product back for unnecessary burn time.
legendary
Activity: 1270
Merit: 1000
Why should they do that? It doesn't make sense at all since its about business and not fairness or whatever.
donator
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
If they really want to do a burn-in, they can use test-net.
And let an opportunity to make profit pass? How is that rational?
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1001
Let the chips fall where they may.
If they really want to do a burn-in, they can use test-net.
donator
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
There is an obvious reason Butterfly Labs does not want to mine themselves: In the long run, mining is not very profitable. It is expected to converge on the cost of bandwidth/electricity. There are only so many bitcoins to go around; only so many block processed per day. In the long run, Butter fly labs can make more money selling chips to miners trying to outdo each other.
Please don't confuse long term strategy with short term strategy. On short term it is very rational for BFL to do a bit of self-mining. And there are different ways to market that: Quality control, Shareholder profit (ASICminer), Burn-In, .... 
Why would BFL want to let a highly profitable business opportunity pass? All they need to do is throttle the hardware selling a little bit and keep each chip at BFL for quality control and burn-in for e.g. 2 weeks. Do that round-robin and you got yourself a free mining facility.
Of course you're right - if the market saturates the profit from burn-in and quality control is negligible. So it doesn't make sense to build a huge mining facility.

It's a food chain and the chip producers are at the front of the line. Mining facilities are second in line. People who hold mining bonds or contracts are third.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1001
Let the chips fall where they may.
There is an obvious reason Butterfly Labs does not want to mine themselves: In the long run, mining is not very profitable. It is expected to converge on the cost of bandwidth/electricity. There are only so many bitcoins to go around; only so many block processed per day. In the long run, Butter fly labs can make more money selling chips to miners trying to outdo each other.
sr. member
Activity: 504
Merit: 250
Would it not make best sense to push back delivery as much as possible (talking about any ASIC rig producer), for as long as possible, until reward halving? Burn in testing is more profitable than delivery into a small market. This had to be a balanced act as not to have customers cancel their orders or ruin cred.

I suspect the latest steady rise in hashing capacity are from ASICS from multiple sources also the less public ones.  No one would buy new gfx cards now? Second hand gfx market would have zero net effect on global hashing if they are bought from other miners. Investing in an ASIC rig, and mining at a higher difficulty, will make your coins more dear. An outside negative influence on the economy, or the technical side of having a non upgradable rig, could start a sell off.  If the market gets really flattend by regulation or otherwise, running an ASIC could be very profitable, if like 70-90% of miners goes of-line in fear of criminal charges.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 564
As soon as BFL ships the ASICs, they have no control over them. Their own customers will be securing the network against such an attack. If they tried to pull off such an attack before shipping, the Bitcoin community could just switch to an algorithm their chips don't support.
They have no control over the ones they've shipped, true. However so long as the amount of ASICs they've kept back is a reasonable amount larger than the amount they've shipped they'll still be able to carry out the attack, and for various economic reasons we might expect this to actually be the case for any manufacturer of Bitcoin mining ASICs.
legendary
Activity: 4634
Merit: 1851
Linux since 1997 RedHat 4
...
As soon as BFL ships the ASICs, they have no control over them. Their own customers will be securing the network against such an attack. If they tried to pull off such an attack before shipping, the Bitcoin community could just switch to an algorithm their chips don't support.
... and how long would that take?
The last soft fork took forever and failed dismally - massive orphans (and chains of orphans up to 4 long) for almost a week.

If someone had the hardware to do an attack they could do it and make a profit before anything would change in the bitcoin code ...

Which is also why I ALREADY said that this required foresight and planning ... but of course that planning WONT happen.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1186
Changing the algorithm would only benefit the few big money players, who can build a new ASIC chip fast, and hijack the market.
As long as that is true, it's obviously not going to happen. The risk of it happening only comes with someone having ASICs online before anyone else.

Luke just doesnt want to move to litecoin with his GPU's when they are made redundant  Cheesy
Quit putting words in my mouth, kthx.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1186
Mining majority cannot change the algorithm, only an economic majority can. I don't think anyone would be able to get most BFL miners to switch without a good reason, anyway - it's simply too risky since "greed" won't fly with the non-BFL miners.
This isn't entirely true. As I know you're fully aware, if an ASIC manufacturer with much greater than 50% of the network hashpower has implemented some new secret hashing algorithm, they can declare that the Bitcoin network is switching to their new algorithm and that they'll use their 51% to prevent any transactions ever confirming for users that remain on the old one. They can't force everyone to change to their algorithm, but they can render the existing one useless quite easily.
As soon as BFL ships the ASICs, they have no control over them. Their own customers will be securing the network against such an attack. If they tried to pull off such an attack before shipping, the Bitcoin community could just switch to an algorithm their chips don't support.
legendary
Activity: 4634
Merit: 1851
Linux since 1997 RedHat 4
yes please. And Luke Jr., please stop spamming with your baseless stupidity about the algorithm change. It makes no sense to change the algorithm and it would only serve one thing - destruction of bitcoin.

Exactly. Changing the algorithm would only benefit the few big money players, who can build a new ASIC chip fast, and hijack the market. That would be the single most stupidest thing that Bitcoin can do it for it self, destroy all the existing ASIC diversity.

ASIC is the end-of-the-line, and we need as much players to that field as one can get in order to secure Bitcoin's future. There is even a OpenAsic project, why people who are concerned of concentrating of power doesn't support that? Give some BTC love for it, and all is solved? But noo, they will shoot them selves in the leg, because they hate that their GPUs are becoming obsolete. Or they are so stupid that they would agree to hand Bitcoin over on a silver platter to a few rich players.

Support OpenAsic, or start your own (to only mine with them, for all I care). We need all the hashrate we can get, in many hands that's possible.
Well, as I have said above (and elsewhere) there is reason why the algorithm could need changing.
Firstly, if the sha256 was broken.
i.e. if someone works out how to factor the hashing process enough to solve blocks rather than hashing (currently) on average 1.05x10^16 double sha256's to find a block.
If that happens, then of course sha256 much be changed - of that there is no doubt.

Though, I have already give a reason why the current hashing process needs to change (not the sha256 algorithm) here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/handle-much-larger-mhs-rigs-simply-increase-the-nonce-size-89278
However, I've no idea if that would affect the ASIC implementations, coz it would depend on if they have optimised the double sha256 (that give an extra 6.25% performance) as has been done with GPU hashing, or not.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Wat
yes please. And Luke Jr., please stop spamming with your baseless stupidity about the algorithm change. It makes no sense to change the algorithm and it would only serve one thing - destruction of bitcoin.

Exactly. Changing the algorithm would only benefit the few big money players, who can build a new ASIC chip fast, and hijack the market. That would be the single most stupidest thing that Bitcoin can do it for it self, destroy all the existing ASIC diversity.

ASIC is the end-of-the-line, and we need as much players to that field as one can get in order to secure Bitcoin's future. There is even a OpenAsic project, why people who are concerned of concentrating of power doesn't support that? Give some BTC love for it, and all is solved? But noo, they will shoot them selves in the leg, because they hate that their GPUs are becoming obsolete. Or they are so stupid that they would agree to hand Bitcoin over on a silver platter to a few rich players.

Support OpenAsic, or start your own (to only mine with them, for all I care). We need all the hashrate we can get, in many hands that's possible.

Luke just doesnt want to move to litecoin with his GPU's when they are made redundant  Cheesy
full member
Activity: 145
Merit: 100
yes please. And Luke Jr., please stop spamming with your baseless stupidity about the algorithm change. It makes no sense to change the algorithm and it would only serve one thing - destruction of bitcoin.

Exactly. Changing the algorithm would only benefit the few big money players, who can build a new ASIC chip fast, and hijack the market. That would be the single most stupidest thing that Bitcoin can do it for it self, destroy all the existing ASIC diversity.

ASIC is the end-of-the-line, and we need as much players to that field as one can get in order to secure Bitcoin's future. There is even a OpenAsic project, why people who are concerned of concentrating of power doesn't support that? Give some BTC love for it, and all is solved? But noo, they will shoot them selves in the leg, because they hate that their GPUs are becoming obsolete. Or they are so stupid that they would agree to hand Bitcoin over on a silver platter to a few rich players.

Support OpenAsic, or start your own (to only mine with them, for all I care). We need all the hashrate we can get, in many hands that's possible.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
You stirred up the hornet's nest with this unsupported assertion:
ASIC vendors are advised to implement an alternative algorithm ...
There's no reason this statement of fact should be controversial at all.
What fact?

I see no fact in evidence.

Merely a fanciful statement you have made and are apparently unable to support via any citation.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
ASIC vendors are advised to implement an alternative algorithm ...
In the other thread Luke-Jr twice ignored my request to show where such an advisory was given.

I have yet to see that this entire fracas is anything other than his fevered imagining.
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