Topic: post-fork price prediction for BTC + BTU - page 2. (Read 4193 times)
Well as I recall BU requires 75% miner support to proceed. So I would think that the majority of people would move to the new coin after adoption, resulting in a fall of old coin prices and, arguably, a collapse. However, this may not be the case because miner support may not relate to investor support - some of the monopolies in Bitcoin mining, such as Bitmain, are in favour of BU despite wider investor support sometimes being in favour of SegWit.
One of BTC's big selling points is the network effect, and if you split you obviously will have, at least initially, a decreased network. How bad will probably depend on how split they are. If it's one chain at 95% of pre-fork hash rate and the other at 5% then I think the price damage will be a lot less then it will be as we'd approach a 50/50 split. In fact, based on tons[1] of incontrovertible[2] evidence[3], I will create that metric. After a split, total price (BTC+BTU) will equal that of the pre-fork BTC price multiplied by the percentage of the total hash rate that comes from the longest chain.
BTCprice + BTUprice = (Longest chain hashrate)/(Combined hashrate)
So, if it forks near $1000, then after as the hash rate of the two forks approach 50/50 we will approach a 50% price drop, so BTC+BTU = $500. But if say the largest chain has 90% of hashrate, then we will see prices around BTC+BTU = $900.
references:
1. http://www.breitbart.com/
2. http://www.foxnews.com/
3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/
BTCprice + BTUprice = (Longest chain hashrate)/(Combined hashrate)
So, if it forks near $1000, then after as the hash rate of the two forks approach 50/50 we will approach a 50% price drop, so BTC+BTU = $500. But if say the largest chain has 90% of hashrate, then we will see prices around BTC+BTU = $900.
references:
1. http://www.breitbart.com/
2. http://www.foxnews.com/
3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/
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