Topic: Post here if you don't understand some part of gambling and I'll answer - page 2. (Read 2016 times)

It's a good question.  The emotional highs and lows of gambling often affect the gambler's actions.  If a guy is losing big, he may bet more or move up in stakes to try and win it back quickly.  The term of "chasing" is often used to describe this.  If a guy is winning big he may start betting less to conserve the profit, or he may get manic and feel invincible, upping the stakes.  He also may "heat check" or make a bet that he wouldn't usually make if he was around even or losing, but now with the new found money he may take a flop in hold'em for more money than his good sense tells him to, just to "see if he's on a streak"

All of this is rubbish, but we are all human.  The goal is to not get too high on the highs, and not get too low on the lows.  For poker, riding a good or bad streak also affects how the other humans perceive you - your poker opponents are not computers, they are humans just like you, with all of the possible biases and the often misunderstanding of independent probability - so if you have won a few hands in a row, the guy in the big blind may be more "scared of you" than he should be.  Keeping a level head is the goal, again much easier said than done.

A quick story somewhat off topic, but along the lines of "what motivates your opponents at the poker table" - I was in one of my first poker tournaments, a small event held in Mirage poker room c. 2004, at a time where that room was still relevant - on a break, I was talking, like a fish, to another fish.  This man had just beaten me in a huge pot making a crazy call with AK on a board of 5-7-J-J - I had pocket 10's and shoved like 2x pot on the turn.  He called with nothing but A-K high, and hit an Ace on the river, just like in the movies .  On break I asked him "why did you call me with only AK?"  (this was a time in poker when many would talk openly about the hand right after it happened, now it would be considered taboo to even ask) And this older Asian man replied to me, and I totally believe him:  "I call you with Ace and King because it was heart and diamond, so I think love and money and I just go with it."

that's the kind of shit you are up against - some incomprehensible, ill-conceived logic.  The way I would counter such logic at a poker table would be to valuebet this particular player heavy, go 1.3 pot if I want to, he is more likely to find some crazy reason to call than your average donk.


yes.  I consider most things to be gambling.  Insurance is gambling.  A forced, -EV gamble in most jurisdictions.  Makes me think why we are even taking a rake on things like medical insurance...

But anyway, alt coins can be beaten by pros, as I have spoke to some beating the game.  It's a filthy game IMO.  The pump-and-dump nature of all the scrypt hashing power pointing to the alt-du-jour, mixed with the same graph I've seen over and over again... the initial pop followed by the downward decay.  To beat this game you need to be in on the pre-mines, you need to be one of the hype-men advertising the next newest, greatest alt, these guys are gifted big amounts of the new alts, and as much as they tell you they are holding for the long term, they are dumping right at the start.

The same logic applies for the (thankfully sub-categorized) HYIP scams - totally beatable - if you are the guy running it or one of the initial few guys connected to the real information.  I've seen smart men game these systems successfully, treating it much like poker - sure you will lose a few pots, but you'll win far greater value than you will lose.   I would never participate in an HYIP even if I thought I could beat them, as they are extremely dishonest and intentionally mismanage "investor" expectations.  I only participate in gambling games where all sides agree and stick to the rules.  there should be no surprises when I win or lose.

Do you consider trading alt coins a form of gambling, and one that can be beaten by skilled "players"?

very simple yes-or-no bets made between 2 entities.  Think of them like statement betting.  

"The price of bitcoin according to X exchange will be >= Y price on Z date & time"

[using more english]

"The price of Bitcoin according to Bitstamp will be >=$300 USD on 5/5/2015 at 5:55 UTC"

A binary option must only have 2 possible outcomes.  The sites that run binary options usually charge a fee to the winner.  Binary options have been around the financial and equity markets for a while.  The site that runs them charges a fee, and from a player perspective to beat that fee you need to have proper information before the rest of the market.  This system is like poker, in that it will create many losers and a few winners.  I don't dabble in them, although some of my earlier BFL-facing bets (that are public here in this forum) are very similar to a binary option.


0)  we have different definitions of "pretty famous"
1)  It is possible to make a living out of poker.  Also possible to make a living out of picking up everyone's trash.  It is worth restating that it's not as glamorous as it seems to do so.
2)  Freerolls have a very low "EV" or "expected value"  The purpose of them is to offer a +EV situation (albeit very small) to every player in the tournament.  The amount that I could win by playing every freeroll on the internet all day every day is likely far less than minimum wage.  
3) I like to play live.  Some only like to play behind a computer.  I have read many books on reading tells (Joe Navarro's "Read 'em and Reap" is one of the best physical tells books I have ever read.  I use it more in business & life than in poker, but damn it's really good for poker too)
4) hahahaha I love those blue sunglasses!  They are prescription, and I had the lenses re-fitted in early 2014 when my prescription changed.  I tried to match the previous color but notice the 2014 pictures have a slightly lighter blue.  I wear them everyday, they are not special for poker, just my sunglasses, and I thing I look "Like a poker player" when I wear them.  It's about how the others at the table perceive me when I'm playing big tournaments.
5) there is so much information about poker on the internet in 2015.  If you desire to learn some part of the game, even an overview for a newb, there are so many youtube videos and training sites now.  Google your exact question, you are likely to find a forum with a detailed answer.  For training sites, I like Cardrunners, Deuces Cracked, Bluefire, and Leggo poker.  Books i can only recommend the Navarro book because it's so brilliant - but almost all learnings & teachings about pokers happen on the internet now.
5)


yes, almost all online casinos reshuffle every hand of BJ in 2015.  I think Cloudbet has a "live" blackjack table that does not.  It reminds me of a funny story in early-internet gambling.  in ~1998 or so, I was in college (yup, I got old back there somewhere, if you are lucky it will happen to you too) and the first online casinos were sprouting up.  Very jank software, very lazy coding, and obviously 1998 level security and integrity. With no real aim other than to light some money on fire while drinking and smoking weed, my friends and I loaded up... I think it was "Intercasino" but maybe not... and we deposited $100 or so and started playing all of the games.  I had read an article on blackjack card counting and wanted to know more.  Because it was 1998 I had to buy a book with BlackJack basic strategy.  This online casino we were playing dealt Blackjack from 1 deck, and down to the last card, then it reshuffles and starts over.  By the end of the week, we had a deck next to the computer where one guy eliminated all the cards as they were dealt.  We knew exactly the 52nd card to come  Insurance decisions towards the end of the deck became very +EV We were not professional gamblers, we didn't "go for the kill," we also didn't want to get in trouble or generate massive USD transfers, so we won a few $K over a few weeks and received the cashouts, each time for like $700 or $950, just scared of getting that 4 digit check  We were even given some early "VIP rewards" in the form of $500 travel vouchers, which I thought were a scam at the time and just threw away when they sent them with the check.  We were even invited to Vegas for a high rollers weekend, but none of us were 21+  lol.  FYI they fixed that shit within a few weeks, went to 2 decks and dealing *almost* to the end.  Was still beatable, then a within a year they were doing the every-hand-reshuffle.



It is clear this man is telling the truth, he has been in the battle for many years and emerged with the 1000 yd stare.  I've seen some of my friends adjust when the USA government turned off Pokerstars / FTP, some moved overseas to keep playing, some turned into live grinders, and some did other things.  The ones that started doing other things seem the happiest to me now.  A buddy of mine, having won and lost $1M over the last ~8 years or so, went broke and then started a Drone business with a financial backer.  He seems much happier than the ones that stayed to continue playing.

Thanks for the bankroll management clarification, what about tips on how to cope with running bad in gambling and how to stay calm when having a heater and keeping most of the profit. Basically dealing with the mental aspect of gambling. Thank you.

Great advice and an awesome thread. Nothing to ask, just wanted to post 

Prolly the best explaination of card counting on the internet:  http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/card-counting/introduction/

[I'll likely be referring to Wizardofodds many times in this thread.  It's the best site I've found to explain the gambling-math behind many popular games]

tl;dr - it's fucking hard, it's rare to find the right rules, and tough to remember all the correct decisions.  But it's possible.


I am in love with the sports-betting culture of UK / EU.  I've never been, but I've been told there is a William Hill parlour on every corner, and when I had my baby it would have been tradition for me to walk into one and bet my daughter would win gold in a future Olympics. 



1) no, i got 4th in 2009 $1500 HORSE, that's the closest I've came to winning one.  I have 1 other WSOP final table, a $2000 NL event in 2006.  I have won smaller tournaments but nothing is like that bracelet
2) definitely not - with let's say 40 players entering a freeroll, an average-skilled player would win ~1/40.  A professional would win the tournament about 1/25 times. 
3) there are some pros on SwC, but the vast majority are bitcoin enthusiasts that like to play lower-limit poker.  SwC isn't quite big enough yet to attract the attention of big-money seeking pros.



there is something human about this.  The ability to apply denial and still make a bad bet when deep-down you know it's -EV.  I've seen many gamblers trapped in this state of denial, and hence they are always broke.


here are simple poker bankroll management rules that many smart, otherwise winning poker players simply refuse to follow:

Cash games:
Only buy in 5% max of your bankroll.  Better number is 2-3% to reduce "risk of ruin"  that means if you don't have 20 buy-ins in your POKER BANKROLL (this should be separate from your LIFE BANKROLL) you shouldn't play that game.

Tournaments: 
1% of bankroll.  Yup, you need 100x buy-ins to play that tournament. 

The above guidelines should be understood that you are a winning player in the games you are playing.  This very important fact "am I a winning player or not" is where that denial comes in.  The most self destructive gambler is the guy that believes he is a winning player but in fact is a losing player.  Keep your records.  Graph that shit.  Be real with yourself - so much harder to do than to write.




Anything I missed, new topics, or any clarification, I enjoy talking & typing about what I know. 

I played professionally from about 2007 - 2012 as main source of income, it was a very bad decision.  Stress built up over the years as the games got tougher, income was down year on year.  Ending up burning out.

This is very good advice i'd only suggest playing professionally if you are a poker celebrity who gets invited to live events or has sponsorship or you run a VERY successful training site.  Otherwise play part time at most.

I would like to get some tips and tricks about bankroll management because this is for me the most important foundation of successful gambling. If you have the time please write a concise explanation for a poker and sportsbetting bankroll management to cater to all players thank you.

Movies and all make it sound like an easy concept but counting is very hard in real time. And the edge you get with it is pretty small. But if you have a lot of bankroll and can sit on a table with high stakes, it will be profitable. But casinos are easily able to spot the counters these days.

How come some people don't understand basic probability and yet think they can out think all previous mathematicans and devise a "winning strategy" when they have a negative EV?

Multiple decks can still provide a beatable game, but like Bryan Micon said it is very difficult to win long-term at blackjack.
The most realistic goal for many talented blackjack players would be to earn really good comps while not spending much money. If you manage to become a "world class" player, then most casinos will eventually ban you from playing blackjack.

You are right, binary option has very high house edge, dice is much better than it, unless some one has inside info, and bet before important news releasing.

General traders can hardly earn money from them because the house edge is ridiculous high.

I'd like to point out that casinos can ban you on the premise or suspicion of you counting cards - they don't need to prove it or anything. Basically if you're doing consistently well over a long period of time they can ask you to leave.

Just want to add that the casino can ban you from their casino for counting cards in some places. There are still places they do manual shuffles or a machine shuffles but it is not continuous. You need a large bankroll to have a shot at beating blackjack but getting banned may make it not worth it if you play poker tournaments.

Unless you have insider information - it's binary options are nothing more than a dice game with a huge -EV (the company takes anywhere between 5-20%) as they are basically a guessing game. Not to mention if you did have insider information there are a lot of easier and faster ways for you to profit off that info that binary options. Basically, don't do it unless you want to lose even more money than you would at a 1% edge dice game.

If you have any, share your knowledge on "binary options"

usually 6-8 decks of cards.

Here is the best link talking about blackjack: http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/, and you can calculate house edge here: http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/calculator/

In general, more decks of cards, the higher house edge. That's why 1 deck BJ is rare to see.

I just calculate 1 deck BJ, it's minus house edge,   wow, the game which casino gives us money 

I thought you were joking until I searched you up and damn must I say you're pretty famous xD.

Few questions:

1. Is it possible for one to make a living out of playing poker? It seems you are really good at it so I would hope so.
2. There are alot of poker sites that give out freerolls eg bitcoinpoker.gg, nitrogen sports, did you try playing those? If you could you can win a ton.
3. Is it better to play physically because you can see other people bluff?
4. How long have you had your blue sunglasses, they're in every picture xD
5. What would you recommend reading over to people who are new to poker. I know the rules of poker and hands and stuff but I'm not really good at it. Are there any pointers you can give me? And what websites to read to learn more?

and some casinos use more than 1 set of cards in every deal right? so counting cards doesnt give you an advantage in some casinos

Yes he does, but it was a gift from a friend