Predict top and your selling plan during this market cycle. - page 2.

Mahanton

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Quote from: bitgolden on August 18, 2020, 03:43:29 PM

Six digits sounds like way too much, we are talking about bare bottom $100k and more which I think will not happen in this market cycle, I am sensing another eyeing towards the all time high price of $20k which is totally possible but I am not sure if it will be quickly or slowly, maybe we will not reach there neither but at least that is something we are tying to find right now and that is why I think people will try and that try could end up with success or failure.

At the end of the day $20k is something just 40% away or so, however $100k is around 10x right now, let's say 9x closer, there is a huuuuge difference between increasing 40% and increasing 900% that is why I think we should just forget about six digits for now and focus on the $20k all time high for now.

When the price had dumped hard way back to 3k then majority of people do lost its confidence and trust with the market plus it comes next on a very long way of sideways movement that
we did even hardly reach or break that 9k price and the market had been stagnant for a while and i highly believe that majority didnt already expect that the market will able to recover anytime soon.
but look at on what happen for this time? It might not really be that a big rise but at least we are seeing some recovery and hope.Im not really into 6 digit kind of predictions but rather
im just also hoping to see the previous ATH and it would be great if we do able to break that one.It might not be on this year but on future years to come.

bitgolden

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Six digits sounds like way too much, we are talking about bare bottom $100k and more which I think will not happen in this market cycle, I am sensing another eyeing towards the all time high price of $20k which is totally possible but I am not sure if it will be quickly or slowly, maybe we will not reach there neither but at least that is something we are tying to find right now and that is why I think people will try and that try could end up with success or failure.

At the end of the day $20k is something just 40% away or so, however $100k is around 10x right now, let's say 9x closer, there is a huuuuge difference between increasing 40% and increasing 900% that is why I think we should just forget about six digits for now and focus on the $20k all time high for now.

DoublerHunter

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Quote from: thecodebear on August 17, 2020, 11:49:30 AM

Two questions (just for fun, don't need comments about how nobody can predict the top or about how let's just focus on the next price movement):

1. How high and when do you think the price will peak at during the current market cycle, meaning before the next 2014/2015 or 2018 type bear market?

2. What is your selling plan for any long term bitcoin you are holding? Gradual selling? A single sell target - what is it? Just gonna see how things play out? Or maybe you plan on holding more long term and don't even plan on taking advantage of the market cycle.

^ 1. at the moment there are countries that is in Recession so, probably if the vaccine is available in the market, many crypto investors would choose to invest in vaccine buy and sell champ option. So probably More or 30 to 40k.
2. I don't have a selling plan, this moment is the preparation for the big event. There are what we called analyst but nobody can predict the exact amount. for sure there would be new big investors that will pump the value.

sana54210

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I guess this is too early to discuss about planning for selling bitcoins. Because, we are just into the beginning days of bullish market and I'm sure we're going to have bullish trend for next 18 to 20 months. If you are not an active trader of bitcoins then definitely you should not plan up for selling bitcoins because this must be the right time to buy more rather than looking for selling. This way I'm seeing OP is trying to confuse naive bitcoiners.

Instead of planning for selling, people must look for buying options. This must be very perfect time for anyone to buy more bitcoin because we are going to have strong bullish markets in coming months.

This must be the very right time and anyone to apply the famous strategy of this community : "buying at every dips".

shoreno

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Not planning for now to sell any of them because this might just not be the high for this year. Things are changing and crypto in coming time may play more important role and this will push the demand for the coins much higher. So, this would lead to more increase in prices and may even look for 15k by this year.

current price is close to the last times ath but thats it , it didnt surpassed it yet so yeah we are expecting for more than just 12-13k usd .

your doing a good job of hodling your coins , as long as there is no real reason for you to not continue your journey , go on . we are on the time where crypto is useful and i think there will be no harder situation than this where crypto must be needed but i dont mean people will stop patronizing

leea-1334

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Quote from: thecodebear on August 17, 2020, 11:57:01 PM

Yeah like I'm super surprised by these $30k predictions. I figure those people must be new to bitcoin because there is no way you've been through a bitcoin bull run before and think this next one is only going to go up 50% over the last one haha. I think for most people who have been around for a while we understand that $100k is the main target for this market cycle, it may or may not hit it, but it's a reasonable prediction and the peak will likely fall relatively close to it. So yeah your 4x of the lowball predictions is a good system I guess haha.

Just wait for the next ATH,,, then people will be adjusting their predictions by adding another couple of zeros to their numbers;)

I mean, the million dollar games all happened around 2017, so I think we will be seeing more "normal" 6 digit predictions coming out from even the news guys soon. They are all quiet now because of embarrassment from their previous wrong calls;)

aioc

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Quote from: Slow death on August 17, 2020, 01:52:22 PM

to be honest i think the highest we will reach will be $30,000 in 5 years, it seems more realistic. I also don't believe in these absurd $500,000 even if it was 50 years from now

You are moderate in your prediction and more realistic but we never know what's going to happen beyond 2020 , nobody expect the pandemic and everyday and every week there's new story to tell about Cryptocurrency, we are flooded with so many predictions hype and FUDS
we should be more realistic in every situation but at the same optimistic on all these absurd predictions.

KnightElite

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I'm not good with predictions but I'm good in technical analysis, the price recently breakout and for this time it is a successful breakout where it surpass the $12,000. We are in a uptrend so the price is continuing to increase and most of the trading strategies have high winning rate because of the current trend. I do trend following this current moment where I will only sell my positions if the trend will become invalidated or if there will be a huge dump and breakdowns. The price is continuing to increase and it is now surpassing the 52 week highs and for me it is good. As long as the trend will stay intact, my guess is that the bitcoin will reach its ATH and beat it and for me the price will go to its peak at $25,000 per each.

pooya87

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Quote from: thecodebear on August 17, 2020, 11:49:30 AM

2. What is your selling plan for any long term bitcoin you are holding? Gradual selling? A single sell target - what is it? Just gonna see how things play out? Or maybe you plan on holding more long term and don't even plan on taking advantage of the market cycle.

ever since 2015 that i entered bitcoin world and bought some coins during the crash i never had any plans to sell my bitcoins but that doesn't mean i don't sell anything. it is more like pulling out some fiat to enjoy the profit but mostly i consider bitcoin to be a currency and am willing to spend it specially whenever price is rising or has risen.

as for the top since you want a guess, i like to use the past performance. last "cycle" price went from $150 to a little less than $20,000 which is 13,233% rise. so if we are to see that much rise at least then we have to see price go from $3200 to $426,656.
but historically the rises become bigger and faster each round as more people adopt bitcoin and we may have more institutional investors coming in too. so $500k would be my guess for the next peak.

maydna

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Quote from: thecodebear on August 17, 2020, 11:57:01 PM

Yeah like I'm super surprised by these $30k predictions. I figure those people must be new to bitcoin because there is no way you've been through a bitcoin bull run before and think this next one is only going to go up 50% over the last one haha. I think for most people who have been around for a while we understand that $100k is the main target for this market cycle, it may or may not hit it, but it's a reasonable prediction and the peak will likely fall relatively close to it. So yeah your 4x of the lowball predictions is a good system I guess haha.

I guess the bitcoin price can increase more than $30k in the next bull run because, in the last bull run, the price can touch almost $20k. And bitcoin already gets halving, which means the reward reduces to half the amount than the previous time halving, and that can make the bitcoin price increase so high. We never know how the higher bitcoin price will be, but we see so many predictions in out there, so we can wait for a while and see how the bitcoin price will increase later.

But the important thing is we need to have a target price to sell, so we don't miss the highest price that will come soon. Besides that, with selling the bitcoin, we can buy back bitcoin when the price is down or making corrections again like before.

Searing

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Clueless!

keeping the BTC hold/hoard..but awaiting a sh*tcoin/altcoin pump..about 10% of my hoard is that....they may hit the wind

on around 18 to 20k btc...i might flush the works at that point...what would be 'confusing' is if they went 'bubble high' as they did

while BTC was pumping back in the day....that will be an interesting 'pucker' choice..if that happens

anyway, like all plans it is probably based on 'fantasy' and I will hodl and accumulate both like an 'old lady' with cats...

(damn, a constant state of wtf and wtf should I do since I got into BTC/crypto in 2013....consitent confusion...as a mode of operation I have it seems.

thecodebear

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Quote from: Kemarit on August 17, 2020, 07:45:59 PM

Quote from: thecodebear on August 17, 2020, 11:49:30 AM

Two questions (just for fun, don't need comments about how nobody can predict the top or about how let's just focus on the next price movement):

1. How high and when do you think the price will peak at during the current market cycle, meaning before the next 2014/2015 or 2018 type bear market?

$50,000 to 6 digits.

Quote from: thecodebear on August 17, 2020, 11:49:30 AM

2. What is your selling plan for any long term bitcoin you are holding? Gradual selling? A single sell target - what is it? Just gonna see how things play out? Or maybe you plan on holding more long term and don't even plan on taking advantage of the market cycle.

6 digits minimum.

Quote from: thecodebear on August 17, 2020, 11:49:30 AM

Personally my guess would be the market tops out somewhere between $80k and $120k in late 2022, but just to be a bit safer I'm currently planning on starting to sell a little bit in the $50,000's, selling a bunch more in the 60k's and 70k's, probably only having a little bit left by $80k assuming it goes that high, and saving one Bitcoin for $100k just so I can say I sold at 6 digits in case it goes that high. But basically the vast majority I plan on selling between $60k and $80k which I'm perfectly happy with even if that ends up being several tens of thousand of dollar below the peak.

I know some people think it'll only go to $30k and some people think it'll go to $300k, so I'd be interested in your selling plan based on whatever prediction you have for this market cycle.

I maybe dreaming of seeing the price hitting $100,000 at least in the next bubble, but then again early 2017, the highest prediction that I've seen in this community is $5000. But obviously, it was eclipses by many folds x4. So with some conservative estimates of $30,000 for most users, then I will go with the same hindsight that it will go on another x4 and could probably see 6 digits 2021-2022.

Yeah like I'm super surprised by these $30k predictions. I figure those people must be new to bitcoin because there is no way you've been through a bitcoin bull run before and think this next one is only going to go up 50% over the last one haha. I think for most people who have been around for a while we understand that $100k is the main target for this market cycle, it may or may not hit it, but it's a reasonable prediction and the peak will likely fall relatively close to it. So yeah your 4x of the lowball predictions is a good system I guess haha.

Kemarit

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Quote from: thecodebear on August 17, 2020, 11:49:30 AM

Two questions (just for fun, don't need comments about how nobody can predict the top or about how let's just focus on the next price movement):

1. How high and when do you think the price will peak at during the current market cycle, meaning before the next 2014/2015 or 2018 type bear market?

$50,000 to 6 digits.

Quote from: thecodebear on August 17, 2020, 11:49:30 AM

2. What is your selling plan for any long term bitcoin you are holding? Gradual selling? A single sell target - what is it? Just gonna see how things play out? Or maybe you plan on holding more long term and don't even plan on taking advantage of the market cycle.

6 digits minimum.

Quote from: thecodebear on August 17, 2020, 11:49:30 AM

Personally my guess would be the market tops out somewhere between $80k and $120k in late 2022, but just to be a bit safer I'm currently planning on starting to sell a little bit in the $50,000's, selling a bunch more in the 60k's and 70k's, probably only having a little bit left by $80k assuming it goes that high, and saving one Bitcoin for $100k just so I can say I sold at 6 digits in case it goes that high. But basically the vast majority I plan on selling between $60k and $80k which I'm perfectly happy with even if that ends up being several tens of thousand of dollar below the peak.

I know some people think it'll only go to $30k and some people think it'll go to $300k, so I'd be interested in your selling plan based on whatever prediction you have for this market cycle.

I maybe dreaming of seeing the price hitting $100,000 at least in the next bubble, but then again early 2017, the highest prediction that I've seen in this community is $5000. But obviously, it was eclipses by many folds x4. So with some conservative estimates of $30,000 for most users, then I will go with the same hindsight that it will go on another x4 and could probably see 6 digits 2021-2022.

STT

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I dont predict 2020 is the top I think its just us meandering across the price range as we absorb the unusual monetary practise in dollar and other unusual circumstance. Its quite clear they'll be a large development out of current economy into something more normal, whether thats a market that has a vaccine and is in decline or perhaps the market booms nominally from large amounts of 'free' dollars but we're going to see change from now.
Discussing profit taking justifies I think somewhat my near term target of like 13,500 for a top to this current rise. People do tend to jump the gun in terms of selling too soon, I think grayscale is mentioned for something bullish but thats just another section of money and outside money perhaps and they can retract also. How far we move downwards from there to repeat ourselves before coming back up I dont know, its a big step just to say we're looking for such a nearby top so need to wait for that first

Act as if there will be no new ATH because thats the base line, then you have surprise to the upside rather then expectations or worse a reliance on a higher price.

gentlemand

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Quote from: thecodebear on August 17, 2020, 06:49:04 PM

But, like, if I would be set at $20k I'd still wait until like $40k or $50k to sell, cuz that is still suuuper safe territory and ya know why not double your money haha.

Nothing in life is guaranteed. You can be confident about things, but not certain about things.

If say $20,000 meant I could secure $10 million and still retain a respectable amount of BTC for whatever happens in the future then I'd be very tempted to do it. That would be far beyond my actual requirements already.

A future 20 or 50 or 100 million would be more than acceptable too, but I wouldn't actually need that much and I'm not sure I'd wish to risk not securing what I originally identified as a healthy amount to pull out just in case.

If $20,000 meant $1 million then, while that's obviously a figure most people will never see, that's not enough to be in complete control of the rest of your days in a first world country and I'd put my faith in the future and largely stay put as long as the rest of my finances were sound.

thecodebear

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Quote from: gentlemand on August 17, 2020, 06:23:22 PM

Quote from: thecodebear on August 17, 2020, 06:19:15 PM

If you're happy with selling at $20k then that's cool, but I think for most of us we don't want to sell just before the main bull market begins, cuz that's kind of the worst time to sell.

If he has enough coinage for that price to cover every possible requirement then more power to him. Wish I was in that position too. That might not be the case.

If I could afford to divest when it's nice and quiet I would. I hate to think how seized everything would be in the depths of another bubble.

Yeah like I'll be pretty well set for life at $50,000+ BTC, and I don't have any worries about that price as that should be well below wherever the peak ends up being, so that's my starting point for selling and if it goes to $100k I plan on only having like 1 bitcoin left for that.

I think it'll probably go up close to $100k, maybe even shooting $10k or $20k+ passed it, but I'd prefer to get out a little early and be safe, and still set myself up for life, rather than chasing the bubble. But, like, if I would be set at $20k I'd still wait until like $40k or $50k to sell, cuz that is still suuuper safe territory and ya know why not double your money haha.

The weird thing about these $15k or $30k predictions is that the BOTTOM of the next bear market will probably be in that range. Like, I'm planning on using some of my profits to buy back in ideally near the bottom of the bear market (this past one I averaged ~$3550 Grin

) and I'm hoping to get back in around like a $25k or so price to load back up...and these people think the top will be around that or even lower haha! Maybe they are confused on the question and are predicting the bottom of the next bear market instead of the next peak haha.

philipma1957

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my plans are to hold until june of 2023.
but if btc goes to 100k before june of 2023 I will sell it all.

if doge goes to 10 cents before june of 2023 I will sell it all.

thecodebear

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Quote from: exstasie on August 17, 2020, 02:43:56 PM

Quote from: thecodebear on August 17, 2020, 11:49:30 AM

1. How high and when do you think the price will peak at during the current market cycle, meaning before the next 2014/2015 or 2018 type bear market?

It's too unpredictable. Anything from $100K-$500K would be "normal" and there could be unexpected deviations as well. There's no point in focusing too much on targets right now. During an actual bubble, we can gather more info from the chart, the altcoin market, etc. Right now, we have very little to go on except past cycles. With such a small sample, past cycles don't tell us much.

Quote from: thecodebear on August 17, 2020, 11:49:30 AM

2. What is your selling plan for any long term bitcoin you are holding? Gradual selling? A single sell target - what is it? Just gonna see how things play out? Or maybe you plan on holding more long term and don't even plan on taking advantage of the market cycle.

My top priority is riding an altcoin bubble to generate more BTC. DeFi is being hyped right now, but most of the market is still reeling from their 2018-2020 losses. When altcoin season finally kicks off, there is so much upside, so much latent demand waiting for new fast money opportunities.

When I see the makings of another blow-off top in BTCUSD like October-November 2013 or November-December 2017 I will start look at sell targets for BTC.

Ah, see I'm staying the hell away from altcoins now haha. In my old bitcoin age now I'm just going for the sure thing. I'm sure people will get rich as hell off altcoins, hell even just the past few weeks some of them have been going crazy, but I just stick to BTC, ETH, and LINK now. I stopped trading altcoins against bitcoin a couple years ago cuz its just way too unpredictable and I always ended up losing bitcoin in the long term. Now I just hold those three coins, and trade those three coins against USD, and only occasionally do a short term trade with an altcoin.

And Bitcoin is like 95% of my long term portfolio so I mostly only care about BTC, but also hope DeFi takes ETH to like $2k or $3k in the next couple years and I'm just enjoying my $200 worth of LINK skyrocket to $8k so far haha.

gentlemand

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Quote from: thecodebear on August 17, 2020, 06:19:15 PM

If you're happy with selling at $20k then that's cool, but I think for most of us we don't want to sell just before the main bull market begins, cuz that's kind of the worst time to sell.

If he has enough coinage for that price to cover every possible requirement then more power to him. Wish I was in that position too. That might not be the case.

If I could afford to divest when it's nice and quiet I would. I hate to think how seized everything would be in the depths of another bubble.

thecodebear

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Quote from: gentlemand on August 17, 2020, 02:28:53 PM

Well, there's a couple of contrarian views at least.

If a cycle between now and a future full on bear market can't manage the previous ATH or only managed 50% above it that would be genuinely bizarre and match no behaviour in the known universe. There will be more people and more money entering via more channels at a time when fewer coins are being made and existing owners believe in it more than ever so won't let go without some serious temptations dangled in front of them.

Yes haha. Good response to the low balling predictions.

As you say, there would literally be no reason for a major crash ending the market cycle if BTC was only at $15k or $30k. $15k is still in the buildup phase before the market even gets hot so that makes no sense, and $30k is only 50% above the last peak which should produce the exact opposite of a crash - it should (and all of bitcoin history shows it produces) a buying frenzy.

Topic: Predict top and your selling plan during this market cycle. - page 2. (Read 425 times)