Topic: predicting difficulty (Read 5757 times)

This is past data for mining difficulty:

Date          % Increase   Difficulty

23-Jan-13    8.64%    2,968,775
08-Jan-13     8.64%    3,249,550
05-Feb-13    10.33%     3,275,465
18-Feb-13    11.47%    3,651,012
01-Mar-13     19.63%    4,367,876
14-Mar-13    10.98%    4,847,647
24-Mar-13    38.13%    6,695,826
05-Apr-13    14.59%    7,673,000
30-Apr-13     12.28%    10,076,293
14-May-13    11.03%   11,187,257

If difficulty increases at 15% per two weeks at next increase then at End July difficulty will be 22,501,570.  If you have a Jalapeno arriving at end-July your total estimated profit would be $1,100, if you run the unit 24/7 till end 2014 year.

28-May-13   15%   12,865,346
11-Jun-13   15%   14,795,147
25-Jun-13   15%   17,014,419
09-Jul-13   15%   19,566,582
23-Jul-13   15%   22,501,570
06-Aug-13   15%   25,876,805

If difficulty increases at 18% per two weeks then at End July difficulty will be 25,593,734.  If you have a Jalapeno arriving at end-July you will possibly make $750 profit, if you run the unit 24/7 till end 2014 year.  At $120 per BTC your break-even date of arrival is 29th Oct, and if it arrives after this date you will make a loss. At $100 per BTC your break-even date of arrival is 15th Oct, and if it arrives after this date you will make a loss.

28-May-13   18%   13,200,963
11-Jun-13   18%   15,577,137
25-Jun-13   18%   18,381,021
09-Jul-13   18%   21,689,605
23-Jul-13   18%   25,593,734
06-Aug-13   18%   30,200,606
20-Aug-13   18%   35,636,715
03-Sep-13   18%   42,051,324
17-Sep-13   18%   49,620,562
01-Oct-13   18%   58,552,263
15-Oct-13   18%   69,091,671
29-Oct-13   18%   81,528,172
12-Nov-13   18%   96,203,242

With the present sales of ASIC chips in bulk from a competitor, Avalon, in lots of ten thousand to distributors, new miner units could reach retail customers by late July.   If so this extra estimated 84 TH/s, at around $2.8 million in chip value, could have an enormous impact on mining output and difficulty levels thereafter.

Lets hope Butterfly Labs Inc. deliver as promised, and you are not one of the unlucky ones that will be mining just to cover their payment to Butterfly labs.

Good luck.

i think we should consider some % of GPU going to ebay
at this time i think 70% power is from gpu wchich will be unprofitable in few months.
people will sell rigs.

This is past data for mining difficulty:

Date          % Increase   Difficulty

23-Jan-13    8.64%    2,968,775
08-Jan-13     8.64%    3,249,550
05-Feb-13    10.33%     3,275,465
18-Feb-13    11.47%    3,651,012
01-Mar-13     19.63%    4,367,876
14-Mar-13    10.98%    4,847,647
24-Mar-13    38.13%    6,695,826
05-Apr-13    14.59%    7,673,000
30-Apr-13     12.28%    10,076,293
14-May-13    11.03%   11,187,257

If this is a 'game' of predicting next diff, I would say... 12%.

This is past data for mining difficulty:

Date          % Increase   Difficulty

23-Jan-13    8.64%    2,968,775
08-Jan-13     8.64%    3,249,550
05-Feb-13    10.33%     3,275,465
18-Feb-13    11.47%    3,651,012
01-Mar-13     19.63%    4,367,876
14-Mar-13    10.98%    4,847,647
24-Mar-13    38.13%    6,695,826
05-Apr-13    14.59%    7,673,000
30-Apr-13     12.28%    10,076,293
14-May-13    11.03%   11,187,257

If difficulty increases at 15% per two weeks at next increase then at End July difficulty will be 22,501,570.  If you have a Jalapeno arriving at end-July your total estimated profit would be $1,100, if you run the unit 24/7 till end 2014 year.

28-May-13   15%   12,865,346
11-Jun-13   15%   14,795,147
25-Jun-13   15%   17,014,419
09-Jul-13   15%   19,566,582
23-Jul-13   15%   22,501,570
06-Aug-13   15%   25,876,805

If difficulty increases at 18% per two weeks then at End July difficulty will be 25,593,734.  If you have a Jalapeno arriving at end-July you will possibly make $750 profit, if you run the unit 24/7 till end 2014 year.  At $120 per BTC your break-even date of arrival is 29th Oct, and if it arrives after this date you will make a loss. At $100 per BTC your break-even date of arrival is 15th Oct, and if it arrives after this date you will make a loss.

28-May-13   18%   13,200,963
11-Jun-13   18%   15,577,137
25-Jun-13   18%   18,381,021
09-Jul-13   18%   21,689,605
23-Jul-13   18%   25,593,734
06-Aug-13   18%   30,200,606
20-Aug-13   18%   35,636,715
03-Sep-13   18%   42,051,324
17-Sep-13   18%   49,620,562
01-Oct-13   18%   58,552,263
15-Oct-13   18%   69,091,671
29-Oct-13   18%   81,528,172
12-Nov-13   18%   96,203,242

With the present sales of ASIC chips in bulk from a competitor, Avalon, in lots of ten thousand to distributors, new miner units could reach retail customers by late July.   If so this extra estimated 84 TH/s, at around $2.8 million in chip value, could have an enormous impact on mining output and difficulty levels thereafter.

Lets hope Butterfly Labs Inc. deliver as promised, and you are not one of the unlucky ones that will be mining just to cover their payment to Butterfly labs.

Good luck.

I plugged numbers from 50btc.com into a spreadsheet and came up with this prediction graph using avg change in difficulty for last 10 periods to predict future changes.

http://db.tt/LIOIvUbW

not sure how to insert image here, just providing a link.

If these predictions hold up we can expect about 50m by the end of summer and close to 250m by end of the year.

It will be quite a few months from now before difficulty rises enough to make electricity costs a significant portion of the profit equation. So I'll rephrase my point...

A Jalapenos pre-order purchased for 25 btc needs to generate more than 25 btc to break even.

check my sig about difficulty going to 1 billion

1. Assumptions
Updated information plus my current guesses and estimates:

    Arrivals are constant. Rather than modelling arrival times, I'm assuming a constant rate of hashes per second added to the network for each of the batches.
    Batch 1: COMPLETE. (I know it's not quite, but near enough for this analysis).
    Batch 2: 600 of 67 Ghps units delivered from 1st May to 31st May.
    Batch 3: 500 of an even mix of  67 and 85 Ghps units, delivered from 1st June to 30th June.
    BFL delivers 2000 Ghps per day (~35 SC Singles per day) from 15th May to 31st July.
    ASICMiner delivers 1.15 Thps per day for a total of 100Thps until 31st July.

Hello,
I am waiting on a BFL ASIC that hopefully will arrive some time this summer. I am told end of July is likely. I would like to find out if there is any calculator out there that can make a reasonable prediction of the expected bitcoin network difficulty some time into the future using existing data about the network growth rate.
What difficulty can be expected 1st of august, 2013?

It ended up being 12153412 or 8.64% up. First time single-digit increase in a long time.

That's if you have free electricity. Otherwise you need to add a fiat part.