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Topic: Prediction: $800 by April (Read 1630 times)

hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
February 25, 2014, 02:05:17 PM
#25
im holding my btc until the next block reward halving.

why? price didn't jump last time. with a daily exchange volume in hundreds of thousands of coins, newly mined coins make up like 2% of the daily volume. Mining rewards are just to small a percentage to effect price much.

Didn't the last halving happen in December 2012?  April 2013 wasn't too far after that.

Granted, there were other things going on, but I absolutely think that reward halving has an effect - even if it's largely psychological at first.

You are saying the price halving resulted in a price spike 1/3rd of a year later? Tongue lol

No.  I'm saying that it was one contributing factor of many.  Bitcoin events do not occur in a vacuum.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
February 25, 2014, 12:51:04 PM
#24
MTGOX shutdown is like a Silk Road shutdown from last october.

I have a feeling you're right...

except gox was way more important to the average btc user then silk road was.


The point is that in a "catastrophe" the strongest hands that will eventually sell... sell. So, in the aftermath, you've shaken out everybody who was nervous about Bitcoin's future and there's no more room to go but up.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
yung lean
February 25, 2014, 12:48:15 PM
#23
MTGOX shutdown is like a Silk Road shutdown from last october.

I have a feeling you're right...

except gox was way more important to the average btc user then silk road was.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
February 25, 2014, 12:45:13 PM
#22
MTGOX shutdown is like a Silk Road shutdown from last october.

I have a feeling you're right...
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
yung lean
February 25, 2014, 12:44:26 PM
#21
im holding my btc until the next block reward halving.

why? price didn't jump last time. with a daily exchange volume in hundreds of thousands of coins, newly mined coins make up like 2% of the daily volume. Mining rewards are just to small a percentage to effect price much.

Didn't the last halving happen in December 2012?  April 2013 wasn't too far after that.

Granted, there were other things going on, but I absolutely think that reward halving has an effect - even if it's largely psychological at first.

You are saying the price halving resulted in a price spike 1/3rd of a year later? Tongue lol
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
February 25, 2014, 12:22:38 PM
#20
im holding my btc until the next block reward halving.

why? price didn't jump last time. with a daily exchange volume in hundreds of thousands of coins, newly mined coins make up like 2% of the daily volume. Mining rewards are just to small a percentage to effect price much.

Didn't the last halving happen in December 2012?  April 2013 wasn't too far after that.

Granted, there were other things going on, but I absolutely think that reward halving has an effect - even if it's largely psychological at first.
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
February 25, 2014, 12:15:35 PM
#19
Based upon past capitulation events and with a floor of $400/BTC I predict that the price of Bitcoin will reach $800 by April.

Based on the numbers at that point, those that have been through this a few times should be able to get an idea of the next peak.
yes i also think so.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
yung lean
February 25, 2014, 12:14:32 PM
#18
im holding my btc until the next block reward halving.

why? price didn't jump last time. with a daily exchange volume in hundreds of thousands of coins, newly mined coins make up like 2% of the daily volume. Mining rewards are just to small a percentage to effect price much.
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
February 25, 2014, 12:10:03 PM
#17
One bad apple spoils the bunch, but doesn't ruin apples...they are good! Now, more people know about apples and we will all be eating apple pie soon. (sorry, I ran away with the apple analogy)
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
February 25, 2014, 12:08:51 PM
#16
MTGOX shutdown is like a Silk Road shutdown from last october.
http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1054541

In perspective.
legendary
Activity: 3780
Merit: 5429
February 25, 2014, 12:05:07 PM
#15
I must admit i saw the prices going lower after waking up to the Gox news. The dip to $400 unfortunately happened when i was asleep so for me it doesn't count, i managed to buy in this dip at $475 with some Fiat.

Same here, bought just before the dive to $400.  Still managed to get some more under $500.

We might go sideways for a while instead of steadily up, but didn't it do the same after June's final capitulation?
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 251
Giga
February 25, 2014, 06:07:47 AM
#14
I must admit i saw the prices going lower after waking up to the Gox news. The dip to $400 unfortunately happened when i was asleep so for me it doesn't count, i managed to buy in this dip at $475 with some Fiat.
full member
Activity: 128
Merit: 100
February 25, 2014, 05:55:48 AM
#13
im holding my btc until the next block reward halving.
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
February 25, 2014, 05:55:34 AM
#12
Bitcoin did NOT ignore MtGox lol, you must be really oblivious if you think that.

Considering I was expecting price to really pop to 200s... i'm still amazed.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
February 25, 2014, 05:53:10 AM
#11
MTGOX shutdown is like a Silk Road shutdown from last october.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
February 25, 2014, 05:40:16 AM
#10
Bitcoin did NOT ignore MtGox lol, you must be really oblivious if you think that.
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
February 25, 2014, 05:37:59 AM
#9
Let's see how this whole thing plays out first. It could be like the Silk Road crash, with the media all wondering about why the price is holding up so well despite MtGox lying in ruins. There's no such thing as negative publicity for Bitcoin, everyone thought the Silk Road shutdown would be disastrous for Bitcoin but it wasn't. I tend to believe the same thing may be true for the shutdown (or takeover) of MtGox. Whatever happens, these are exciting times for sure. Grin

By no means I want to make people feel stupid, but there's almost no reason for the Gox-Scam-Incompetence to affect the bitcoin price. I'm satisfied of what I saw last 3 weeks, Bitcoin did really well ignoring MtGox. And still does.

But, trend is trend so we'll see lower also.
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
hm
February 25, 2014, 05:35:42 AM
#8

LE: I mean, who's gonna buy all those 3600 btc/day?

Noone has to buy the new mined coins. Do you think all miners sell instantly?

This is a "everything is possible"-year. I think we reach a new ATH before July. Depending on the news which I don't know.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
February 25, 2014, 05:25:31 AM
#7
Let's see how this whole thing plays out first. It could be like the Silk Road crash, with the media all wondering about why the price is holding up so well despite MtGox lying in ruins. There's no such thing as negative publicity for Bitcoin, everyone thought the Silk Road shutdown would be disastrous for Bitcoin but it wasn't. I tend to believe the same thing may be true for the shutdown (or takeover) of MtGox. Whatever happens, these are exciting times for sure. Grin
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
February 25, 2014, 05:22:28 AM
#6
I don't think so... Seems people are really panicked about what happened. Maybe a 600 at max, but also lowers into 200s?

Well, I hope it is gradual over the course of the month. Otherwise it would be too fast. If it takes the whole month then we will be on pace for a new ATH. Too early, and it is just regular volatility.

It won't be much of ATH if it goes to 1330 or so, and down to 500s again. Still, I don't think we can see new ATH this year.

LE: I mean, who's gonna buy all those 3600 btc/day?
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