Topic: PREDICTION: A SHA256 ALT coin will become as big a success as Litecoin (1-2Yrs) (Read 7751 times)

So what Sha256 coin do ya'll predict would be a good investment? Peer coin, zeta coin, etc.?

If investing in mining equipment, I think it would be dumb to put all your eggs in one basket (only Scrypt farm or only SHA256 farm). Diversification is always good when investing in anything.

I'm glad someone else can see that this is a possibility.


Weak hands will always exist in every cryptocoin ecosystem. Furthermore, not everyone can see the big picture. You need to open your mind to see that there is a very real possibility that this could happen. The people selling ASICs for pennies now sound like the people selling me GPUs for pennies right before the Bitcoin reward halving. I believe just like those people, they will look back and regret their decision.

Bitcoin ASICs didn't exist until this time last year. You have not given enough time for the prediction to become correct. I said if it's going to happen, it will happen in the next 1-2 years. Although I suppose my OP was in August, so I'm down to .5 - 1.5 years.

Just my 2 QRK .

I think you are correct , also obviously a currency that is multi hash and generally limited to PC will have much popularity,  and much more run on network effect as it is much less centralized.  

The chance for another SHA256 currency is in the masses of ASICs that exist and are available.

This means that Scrypt could be the loser long term.

Mazacoin

actually they are, people are giving up on them.  1st Gen erupters are going for about $5 to 7 each.  Some owners have just chucked them because they are not producing the earnings they anticipated and others are still using them to gain a fraction of a BTC in hopes of BTC going to $10k just to recoupt he cost of the investments.

People can't even sell them because it cost more to ship them to buyers!!!!!  So your hopes that there will be a rally around a new SHA256 coin are misguided.

There are currently 4 active nonmergmineable SHA256 coins and none of them have come even close to a fraction of a percent of BTC. 

So expecting a new SHA256 revival is a waste of time. 

Yeah, the price of Peercoin will shoot up a bit once the V0.4 client is released in a few weeks time, IMO.

It would have to be a non merge mined coin for this to become true. If it were a merge mined Sha256 coin then that would negate my entire argument here, because hash power would not be split on multiple chains.

I refuse to believe that gen1 Bitcoin ASIC owners are just going to throw their hands in the air and give up when their ASICs become unprofitable. Is everyone just going to send their Bitcoin ASIC paperweight to the dump? Most of them didn't even make a profit in Bitcoins and are at a loss, these people will be looking to extend the life of their machine and hopefully achieve break even or make a slight profit. The equipment can't be used for anything other than spitting out sha256 hashes, so there is no other alternative.. you either sell it (for pennies), throw it away, or my prediction comes true and gen1 Bitcoin ASIC owners rally around a sha256 ALT coin and lift it up among the heavyweights that are Bitcoin and Litecoin.

I think when the mining fees get cut in half it would be a great time to launch a new coin and promote it to Bitcoin miners. But, I am not sure how big it can get.

Not all mining will be profitable. At that point people stuck with gear will be even more compelled to sell off the gear to others. But, I am not sure they would think to do something other than mine Bitcoin. Most people I know who buy old bitcoin gear try to make money from bitcoin with it and then realize they can't.

Of course when powerful new mining equipment is coming into service miners are going to test other things as well. It is only natural. Especially when you start losing money when mining something. So if someone can get enough traction where there is a community built around it with a coin AND it runs SHA256 then people will mine it.  But, if the community is just miners, then that can't easily happen.

merge mining has destroyed any change for a SHA256 coin to be competitive with BTC.  They have all just become slaves to the BTC chain.  Sorry Scrypt or another algorithm are the only change to be competitive.

No his point doesn't still stand.  

People are having a hard time realizing this ITT, but if the more economical ASICs switch over to the more profitable ALT chain, then BTC's difficulty will come down. Allowing both to be mined simultaneously, splitting ASIC hash power which results in increased profitability for both chains.

I'm glad someone shares the same opinion as I do.

I really can't believe most people don't get that this is going to happen. It seems so obvious to me.

Cheers

Sorry to bump this old thread... I still hold this opinion and have been thinking about this more lately. If this is going to happen it will happen in the next 1-2 years.. maybe even less. I have recently decided if this prophesy were to come true, that Peer Coin will be the likely benefactor. I chose Peer Coin for similar reasons I chose Litecoin a year and a half ago.

1. Peer Coin has the 4th largest market cap of all cryptocoins- 3rd largest if you ignore the Ripple centralized premined scam coins. The way I figure this is that the more money that is available in a cryptocoin's economy, then they have more funds at their disposal to develop and promote their currency. Some people are really invested into Peer Coin by now, and I don't see it dying anytime soon. Also, someone is more likely to invest in a coin with a larger market cap than a smaller market cap. The coin with the largest market cap is perceived as being bigger or more popular- which it likely is.

2. Peer Coin was the original innovator of proof of stake, a technology that a lot of newer coins today are using and even entirely built on. I don't think anyone can argue that proof of stake minting wasn't innovative, and I feel like some credit is due for them developing PoS.

3. The reasons I've already described in this thread regarding gen1 Bitcoin ASICs.

4. Peer Coin has a solid developer, Sunny King is one of the best developers I have ever seen of an ALT coin. He is active within the community and I have even seen him fix other people's coins... just because he can.


I agree it will be hard to catch up to them because of the network effect. I do still expect a SHA256 ALT to gain a lot of traction over the next couple years though.

 I don't think it is easy to catch up to litecoin usage or bitcoin anymore , they took off already , they can be used in variaty of places , I think there could be a great 3rd coin but the first two will stay same if you ask me.

Once the "compare profitability of different coins" sites start listing a coin lots of opportunists start hitting it.

But look what has been happening with I0Coin, GRouPcoin, CoiLedCoin and GeistGeld: because they were not listed, most miners did not bother to merged-mine them. Thus those who did merged-mine them were getting many more a day than they would once the masses caught on. This probably translates to those coins turning out to be a much larger bonus percent on one's mining income than the merged coins listed on the comparison sites, once they do end up on exchanges so that one can see their profitability and adjust it for the fact you were mining it at massively lower difficulty than will be in effect once the comparison sites do get around to listing them.

Bitparking's mmpool recently picked up I0Coin again, and also picked up GRouPcoin. The number of those coins one now mines per day with any given amount of hashing power is now massively less than it was before bitparking added them to its merge.

So the thing to have done was to mine them back when mmpool was not merging them. Currently one can still do that with CoiLedCoin and GeistGeld, though for how long remains uncertain.

I0Coin looks like it is worth a heck of a lot more now that it is on web-based exchanges than it was back when you had to use Open Transactions or over the counter methods to trade it.

It seems likely the same will happen to GRouPcoin once Vircurex adds it.

The more borderline the profitability of your hardware in mining the coins everyone and their dog mines, the more useful these ones that the masses have been ignoring all this time become. Though maybe having seen what has happened with I0Coin and GRouPcoin might make this under the radar approach work less well soon for CoiLedCoin and GeistGeld because now presumably more people are more aware of how nice a profit you can make by hoarding under-the-radar coins while they are sitting there at low difficulty almost-free to merged mine.

-MarkM-

look at this today..
TRC is scoring 270% more valuable than BTC, maybe for few hours a day

I said all this would happen before , and its started , what you are missing out of your equation is the depth of market .

There just isnt that many Gen1 ASICs dispersed into many hands out there compared to say GPU users , so the market never irrationally or rationally saw the  need to invent such an entity .

However now with the proliferation of ASICs of all types starting to spread , a market is developing .

However , what could occur is the proliferation of an SCrypt ASIC thus , furnishing the ASIC companies need to head towards an ROI and the proliferation of ASIC in that market .
If this was to  occur sha256 may be bypassed in this manner for the success that may be predicted .

But thats all uncertain .

Miners will shift their older obsolete ASICs over to PPcoin eventually, as this coin cannot be merge-mined.

I predicted all this months ago in a couple of posts. PPcoin difficulty has increased 4-5 fold since already. Sooner than I thought.

I don't see it this way. I understand where you and 01BTC10 are coming from, and I understand the reasoning. However, there will be a large financial incentive for someone to create an innovative SHA256 ALT coin because of the large number of Bitcoin ASIC paperweights.

If something truly innovative were to come out that was SHA256, it could make these paperweights profitable again. Yes, I agree Gen1 will always be at a disadvantage to Gen2, but if half of the Bitcoin network switches over to this new innovative coin it will effectively half the Bitcoin difficulty. Making it 200% more profitable to mine than it was before the new coin came out.

These may not necessarily always be the paperweight people imagine they will be, even without a new SHA256 ALT coin. Another scenario... at current BTC value, it will be unprofitable to mine with a 110nm Avalon when the difficulty reached about 2 trillion. If one BTC were to equal $1000usd, it would become unprofitable around 10.6 trillion difficulty. If one BTC were to be worth $100,000, an Avalon would be unprofitable to run at 750 trillion difficulty.

Even though most people will think they are paperweights when they immediately become unprofitable in 2014, this is simply not the case, especially if you are a long term bull on Bitcoin. I would not be surprised to see a $10,000 to $100,000 price for Bitcoin sometime in the future. It will be profitable to run these machines at this value, but you have to be very patient and know it's a mega long term investment when buying them when they become unprofitable at today's Bitcoin value.

I think there will be money in high process node SHA256 ASICs one way or the other. It depends on how patient and/or risk prone you are IMO. I know you are going to say, if you are a longterm Bitcoin bull that you would just be better off buying Bitcoin, but that may not be the case due to many unforeseen factors. If a truly innovative SHA256 coin were to surface, it would change the mining game up quite a bit.

01BTC10's point still stands.

If a first gen ASIC is a money loser when mining BTC, it'll be a money loser on any alt-coin as well. Why? Because if it's NOT a big money loser, then everyone with 2nd Gen ASIC's will pile into that network as well, and push the difficulty up enormously, rendering your Gen-1 chip just as unprofitable to mine with.

Say for example the network reaches the point where running a first gen ASIC earns you negative 25 cents per month (lets's say it gets out 0.01 BTC, but electricity costs you $1.75, but a 2nd gen chip earns .3 BTC at an electricity cost of $0.30).  You "discover" that you can mine CoinX at a profit - the ASIC still costs $1.75 to run, but you earn enough of these new coins that when converted to BTC, you''re earning 0.03 BTC/month. This news will get around rapidly. So you'll have all these owners of 2nd gen chips paying $0.30 for electricity and earning 0.03 BTC per month per chip moving to this new coin. Because, remember, if it's profitable you with a 1st gen, then it's even more someone with a second gen chip, who could theoretically earn 0.09 BTC rather than 0.03 BTC.

So, A, the difficulty rate will skyrocket to the point that your returns will be either nonexistent or negative once again. Or B, the value of the new coin will drop to the point, again, that your 1st Gen ASIC will struggle to break even when compared agains a Gen 2would make.

I think the thing is, you're looking for what is commonly known as "free lunch". Yes, those specials occassionally come to light, but they last an incredibly short amount of time before the market learns about it and adjusts.

Basically, look at the dollar denominated output of a miner and coin. If a miner can mine $10 of bitcoin in a day, then that's basically the cap for any other SHA alt coin. Why? If the same hardware could generate $30 per day for the miners, then every miner would scramble to the new coin and BTC transactions would co unconfirmed for ages.

So, no. There really won't be a use for 1st generation mining equipment once it's reached the end of it's life. That's the whole thing about "Application specific", they're built ONLY to perform the exact calculations that Bitcoin requires. And that's I'm become more and more convinced that this whole thing is a folly. By "thing" I mean hardware mining. No matter how much hashing power gets thrown on the network, the network will always be extremely vultnerable to a dedicated attacker. And transactions will always take minutes and minutes to confirm (the other day, i had to wait almost an hour for a 4 BTC transaction to go through. AND i'd added 0.004 for the miners. But that's a different story.

All that we're doing with ASIC's is spending a LOT of money to stay in the same place. Or to get short term, incremental advantage over oner another. I said it in a different thread, but the failure here is us. None of us are thinking up any real business ideas for Bitcoin, we're all convinced that the easiest and grandest fortunes are to be gotten from mining. If that continues to be the case, we're not going to see the mass adoptions of BTC that we dream about, because why will people choose to convert to Bitcoin if the only purpose is to convert back to fiat when it's time to spend the money>

Enough money is being wasted lining the pockets of Friedcat, BFL, KNC Miner, Avalon and every other person that even whispers that they're thinking about creating a new ASIC. Don't throw even more down the drain trying to scoop up peoples otherwise worthless 1st gen devices when they start getting thrown in the dustheap.

You're watching too much Max Keiser. The exact same content of that article was taken out of one of his discussion video's.