when will people realise that predicting price is imposible? nobody will ever know how to predict price on independent market, thats the fact. If that would be posible, nobody would ever be on that market for trading. Trading is about hope, no certainty here. People are affected by emotions, they are irrational and so on...
Predicting a given price at a given time accurately is impossible.
However, it is clearly possible to understand broad trends and even micro-trends. If you don't understand this then get yourself a book on elementary technical analysis.
None of this is rocket science or magic. It's simply about understanding what the trend is and how trends are changing before most other speculators pick up on it. A little bit like forecasting the weather from changes in air density, perhaps. If you know what you are looking for then you can gain a very good idea of what's going to happen in the near future. The weather is part of a complex system, too. But you wouldn't suggest that no one is capable of predicting with a reasonable degree of success whether it's going to rain tomorrow, assuming they're using the right tools?
ok tell me than, wise man, will be the price in 1 week from now higher or lower than 450$ ? and please don't compare weather with market, it's not the same (btw, i'm master in finance and i know what you are talking about, but predicting trends for future ? not in BTC market).
Well you just totally destroyed that straw man.
I don't know. I'm not a trader. Or a weatherman. If I guess correctly, will you admit I'm right? If I guess wrong, will you take this as confirmation that you were right? If not, this test might be a bit asymmetric...
But you've already said you know what I mean.
For what it's worth, it does look like we are coming to the end of a five-month downtrend in the next week or two, if we haven't already. So if I was a trader, I'd be seriously considering going long at this point. I certainly wouldn't rule out another dip first and would keep an option open for sub-400, though curiously that is looking less and less likely. I'm happy to concede that (if it doesn't happen) I had called that one wrong. But claiming that bitcoin is just totally unpredictable (do you mean random?) doesn't make sense to me. You only have to look at the chart on the front page of Stamp to get an overall sense of what's going on. Plus, as a master in Finance, I'm sure you've studied bubbles and the similarities between them.
Bubles are natural, even in nature bubles happen (example is population of mices on island) , here on the long run another will happen, but we can not tell when and how big one...we can just put tumb up or down thats all...and might be wrong
That's the one point you come back on?!
Top of a bubble, the price goes down. Unsustainable growth, near vertical price rise -> pop, crash. Like has just happened. That I consider predictable. You, by all accounts, don't.
Come on, if you're going to challenge someone on something that is so obvious to the majority that it barely needs stating, then at least give me something to work with.
