Prediction: Low was $34K or will be ~$25K - page 6.

cabron

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Quote from: jackg on January 29, 2022, 08:32:40 PM

Could we not even say your 25k figure was a bit low?

I think people might look to buy at 25k or 30k so much that it COULD drop down back to the 28.3k we saw last time and then take a large bounce up from there (I made a thread here a few weeks before then saying I didn't think it was unreasonable for us to hit near 29k but not go below it, and we got into the 28k regions then so)...

$29k has the biggest support line, it's very visible in the chart so if that support breaks the crash may continue down to $20k which may likely be what some of us are eyeing to buy. It's going to be a bigger crash if that also breaks out.

For now the price is just floating and there is nothing else that may trigger the price to go up. The positive signs are there however because even when Biden is up to sign Bitcoin regulation again, the price wasn't affected.

mk4

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Quote from: adaseb on January 29, 2022, 07:38:29 PM

Remember… market does what the least amount participants expect.

While I totally agree with this part, isn't it pretty difficult to gauge what price you think people will want to actually buy? This is actually the first time I've heard that people wanted $20k, as I'm mostly hearing like $26k-28k. Which proves my point that opinions of the "best" buy price are literally all over the place.

Also taking note that the unexpectedness of markets can also be on the downside — whereas if $20k is where people wanted to buy(and switch to bullishness), it could also mean we can go far lower than that.

adaseb

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Quote from: jackg on January 29, 2022, 08:32:40 PM

Could we not even say your 25k figure was a bit low?

I think people might look to buy at 25k or 30k so much that it COULD drop down back to the 28.3k we saw last time and then take a large bounce up from there (I made a thread here a few weeks before then saying I didn't think it was unreasonable for us to hit near 29k but not go below it, and we got into the 28k regions then so)...

There are too many technical traders out there. Remember when a bunch of people got extremely bearish when we touched $20K about a year ago, they were all predicting a double top.

Now many are treating this $30K area like $6K. And think it will hold. I don’t think that will be the case. It would be too obvious. We might get a few higher lows but eventually I see the $30k breaking.

If $25K isn’t the low the obviously the 200WMA is the last area of support that I see before we head down to like $15K or something.

jackg

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https://bit.ly/387FXHi lightning theory

Could we not even say your 25k figure was a bit low?

I think people might look to buy at 25k or 30k so much that it COULD drop down back to the 28.3k we saw last time and then take a large bounce up from there (I made a thread here a few weeks before then saying I didn't think it was unreasonable for us to hit near 29k but not go below it, and we got into the 28k regions then so)...

adaseb

legendary

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Alright so here is my take on what the low will be this cycle.

We had a low of $34K mostly due to cryptos close correlation with the stock market. And now that we are bouncing the funding rate is negative. Which means traders are bearish. Exactly what happened at $30K in the Summer and $40K the months following. However the bounce seems a little weak so we might top at $40K and head back down again…

And I don’t see $28-30K being the low hold. It’ll be like the $6K from 2018. Everybody wants to long $30K and most likely will be a bull trap and when it breaks pivot lows, it’ll send a cascade all the way to around $25K. Which will most likely be the low.

Why? Because nobody will want to buy at $25K because they will think $20K is next and it seems like a better and smarter buy than $25 K since it’s the top of 2017.

Remember… market does what the least amount participants expect.

Everyone didn’t buy at $34K because $30K was a better buy.
Everyone wants to buy at $30K instead of $34K
When $30K breaks… everyone will want to buy at $20K.
Since everyone wants to buy at $20K it’ll most likely never reach that area.

So bottom is $34K or $25K give or take a K or so.

Might not happen until April when tax selling is over and done with.

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