Topic: Prediction market - page 2. (Read 10737 times)
I agree. The challenge then becomes how to decide the judging fee. Obviously something like "Obama wins presidential election in 2012" is much easier to judge than "homelessness rate in Topeka Kansas doubles by dec 31st 2011" (I had trouble coming up with a really hard one, but I know they are out there)
I think multiple peer judges who don't know who each other are until afterwards and get paid for choosing the same way as the majority might be a good way to go.
Ok, I don't have one yet, My coding skills may or may not be up to actually making one. But I thought a prediction market in bitcoins would be a good idea. Because of their anonymous nature it would allow for a wider range of possible predictions than the currently available markets. My thought is a market in which anyone can offer something to be predicted, with the site admins taking a cut for judging which way it has gone. Things to be predicted could be submitted and then the judges would decide if they are able to judge that particular thing, and how much they would charge to do so, if they can't judge it it is rejected, if they can but the judge's fee is not met then the market is dissolved at the end and bids are returned. If they can judge it and the judge fee is met that is subtracted and the rest divided among those with correct predictions based on their market share.
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