Topic: Prediction Markets at Fairlay - Suggest your own and Bet on them - page 5. (Read 9110 times)

Theresa May shaked up government with new-look cabinet, but who will leave it first?

Interesting week is behind us in UK politics as new Prime Minister Theresa May has unveiled a nearly completely new look cabinet, in a major departure from predecessor David Cameron's top team. And it couldn’t be more interesting.

George Osborne, Michael Gove, John Whittingdale, Nicky Morgan and Oliver Letwin have all been sacked by Mrs May.
Liz Truss is justice secretary, Justine Greening takes education and Tory leadership contender Andrea Leadsom has been promoted to environment secretary. Boris Johnson became foreign secretary. Philip Hammond was made chancellor.

First Cabinet Member to Leave, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/first-cabinet-member-to-leave-1/.

So, new cabinet has plenty of interesting names, at the end of which is Eurosceptic David Davis who will, meanwhile, take charge of negotiating Britain's exit from the European Union, in a newly created post of Brexit secretary.

And, it is Davis who is amongst those who could be the first one to leave the cabinet if things don’t go as he or May want. Andrea Leadsom, who was seen as a candidate for the new Prime minister, is also with good chances to leave first. But, of course, the first favorite is a new foreign secretary Boris Jonson as many see him leave before the end of year.

RealClearPolitics polling: Hillary is keeping lead just above 4.0% but can Trump lower it in the next week?

After raising to 6.0% lead on June 28, first half of July wasn’t great for Hillary as Trump managed to keep her lead under 5.0%, and it was at the recently lowest 4.3% yesterday. But what will happen next, and will Hillary move up in the polls after Sanders’ endorsement, or will Trump use momentum and move her lead even lower?

Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on July 20? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-july-20/.

So, recent polling certainly showed that Hillary was taking hit for her email scandal lies, and she even lost her lead in some important countries like Florida. With this, both Hillary Clinton and her campaign team should be freaking out, as issues with her honesty has been a sticking point for many Democrats during her primary run.

Thus, there is solid chance that she could go under 4.0% in polling lead, and you have great odds if you think she could go even under 3.0% lead. At the same time, Trump will receive a bump in the polling after the Republican National Convention next week and he also has to announce his vice presidential pick. So, will polling get even tighter?

Pokemon Go! It’s a new phenomenon, but who long will it last (and be at the top of the App Store)?

You can love it, or even hate it but confusion about Pokemon Go has been rising worldwide as its unprecedented growth makes more and more headlines. So, this game has been flooding the news and neighbourhoods but for many it seems as silly as it is impenetrable. And what is this fuss all about?

The answer is Pokemon Go, the new smartphone game from Nintendo and Niantic Labs. According to data tabled by Digital Vision, two days after the app’s launch, Pokemon Go was installed on 5.16% of Android devices in the US and had roared to the top of the iTunes app store’s free app charts. Nintendo’s stocks are reported to have risen to their highest value since 1983 and demand for the game was so high, with servers crashing regularly, that Amazon’s chief technology officer, Werner Vogels, even offered to share the traffic load.

How long will Pokemon Go be at the top of the App Store? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/how-long-will-pokemon-go-be-at-the-top-of-the-app-store/.

So, you surely tried to play it as well, or some of your friends did. Or, if you’ve been out and about over the past few days, chances are you’ve seen people frantically swiping their smartphones in front of places of interest, or listened with slight alarm as friends chattered excitedly about how they “caught a Sandshrew behind the supermarket”.

All in all, it is all really popular and interesting, so much that it brought a $7.5-billion US surge in Nintendo's market value. But for how long will this craziness about Pokemon Go last, or to ask more accurate question: “How long will Pokemon Go! be at the top of the App Store?” For weeks, months, or could it stay there even in 2017? At Fairlay market you have six different options, but take care that we put starting period for July 8, 2016 at 10:00 GMT time. So, what is your opinion on this market, and Pokemon Go itself?

Price of Crude Oil fell in recent days, but what will be end of the year Crude Oil price?

Oil prices fell once again this morning amid signs of an economic slowdown in Asia and evidence that US shale producers have now adapted to lower prices. Brent Crude Oil opened today at $46.49, after being at $50.10 last Monday. But, let’s look further on and try to predict where it will close at the end of the year.

According to Goldman Sachs, it will remain in a range of $45-50 per barrel over the next 12 months, as there is also mounting evidence that US shale drillers can adapt to prices of $45 or higher. But, few weeks ago former Shell Oil President told he’s “pretty bullish” on $80 per barrel oil by the end of the year.

End of the year price of Crude Oil, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/end-of-the-year-price-of-crude-oil-1/.

“Sometime in the fall, it could be in October or November, the Russians and the Saudis have got to get a grip on reality that they cannot face 2017 with the same collapse in their budgets… they are going to have to do something and the best thing for them to do, because they are so oil dependent, is to let the price of oil rise further,” he said.

So, what is your opinion on the price of a barrel of Brent Crude Oil, in USD, on December 31, 2016? Can it go over $75.00, or will it go up but stay in the range of $50.00 - $74.99? Or, do you think recent trends will continue so it will close year in the current range at $25.00 - $49.99, or even under $25.00?

The British pound has become the world's worst performing currency, where will it be at the end of 2016?

Following the referendum result, the British pound has become the world's worst performing currency, falling even behind the Argentinian peso. At the same time, it is confirmed that either Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom will be Britain's next Prime Minister so could this help pound to recover, or will it go way more down by the end of the year?

Next UK Prime Minister, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-uk-prime-minister-1/.

Some think that British pound will go so down that it could hit history-making dollar parity by end of 2016. Though, more analysts predict $1.20-$1.30 could hold for sterling this year. Yesterday it closed at $1.29, after being at $1.49 on June 23, before the referendum results came in.

"While GBP has already seen steep declines across the board we think it remains vulnerable to a prolonged decline even from these levels. Our current forecast profile sees GBPUSD falling to $1.20 by the end of this year ($1.25 by end-Q3)," says Ned Rumpeltin at TD Securities.

GBP vs USD: Value of Pound at year end, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/gbp-vs-usd-value-of-pound-at-year-end/.

So, where do you think pound value will stop at the end of the year? Fairlay market, like most analysts, gives the biggest chances that on December 31 it will be in range between $1.21 to $1.40, but range of $1.01 to $1.20 is also likely to happen. Thus, you can find great odds if you think it could go to $1.00 or Under, or recover Over $1.40.

RealClearPolitics polling: Trump lowered it under 5.0, but Hillary is back to 5.0 lead. What will happen next?

After Hillary Clinton increased her lead in RealClearPolitics polling to 6.8 ten days ago, Trump and his campaign managed to lower it under 5.0 in the last week, but today Hilary closed polling at 5.0 lead. So, what will happen next?

In the focus today, and probably following days, is the news that FBI Director James Comey confirmed that some of Hillary Clinton's statements and explanations about her email server to the House Benghazi Committee last October were not true, as evidenced by the bureau's investigation into whether she mishandled classified information.

Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on July 13? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-july-13/.

So, could this influence Hillary’s polling? Some think that she will go down under 4.9% lead on July 13, and if you have same opinion you have great odds at the moment. Range of 5.0% to 5.9% is still in lead and most likely to happen. But, at the same time, Donald Trump is not quiet either, so could Hillary again go over 6.0% lead in the next seven days?

Austrian far right gets second chance at presidency with vote re-run: Who will become president on October 2?

At the end of May, we had interesting market on the Austrian presidential election in which Norbert Hofer of the anti-immigration and anti-EU Freedom Party was a rather favorite to become the next Austrian president but on May 22 he lost to former Greens leader Alexander Van der Bellen by less than one percentage point, or around 31,000 votes.

Still, last Friday Austria's highest court has annulled the result of this presidential election narrowly lost by the candidate of the far-right Freedom Party. The party had challenged the result, saying that postal votes had been illegally and improperly handled. Thus, the election will now be re-run on October 2 this year. And who will win them this time?

Next Austrian President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-austrian-president/.

So, Austria’s Freedom party will get another go at providing the first far-right president in the EU. And, while the Austrian presidency is a largely ceremonial role, Hofer’s comment in a TV debate that “you will be surprised by what can be done by a president” had given rise to fears that he could make use of powers to dissolve parliament once in office.

“I will stand again in this run-off election, and I intend to win again – don’t let that be misunderstood”, said Van der Bellen who was due to be sworn in as president on Friday, July 8. But now he will have to fight again in October, and it will surely be a tight race once again. Currently, Van der Bellen is a small favorite but what do you think who will prevail?

Who will be the next French president? Alain Juppe, Marine Le Pen? Or again Francois Hollande, or Nicolas Sarkozy?

'Call me Madame Frexit,' said last year Marine Le Pen, the head of France’s far-right National Front, who recently announced that she would hold a referendum on the country’s membership in the EU within six months of attaining power, unless France can end the free movement of people and leave the ‘failed’ euro.

Few days ago Alain Juppé, front-runner to become French president in next year's election, said he wants to move the UK border back on British soil. "The logic requires that border controls should take place on British soil," he said. However, in regards of Brexit, Juppé also added everything was "up for negotiation."

At the same time, French President Franocis Hollande has seen his popular support plummet down to just 12 percent, as 86 percent said they did not like the way Hollande was tackling the country’s problems? So, who will be the next French president as presidential election is scheduled for April 23, 2017 for the first round and May 7, 2017 for the runoff?

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-french-president/.

And as Hollande has said before he will decide by the end of this year whether to run again, he is not given huge chances to be reelected. In fact, former president Nicolas Sarkozy stands bigger chances to regain country’s power, though he has not formally declared his intention to be elected but is widely believed to wish to do so.

However, on November 20 and 27, Sarkozy's Republicans are organizing their first ever primary, and Sarkozy will he have to defeat former foreign affairs minister and prime minister Alain Juppé, who is currently mayor of Bordeaux. But, at the same time, Juppé is given by far the biggest chances to become the next French president.

Though some polls put National Front leader Marine Le Pen, who intends to represent her far-right movement, in the lead in the first round, but they show that she is likely to lose the runoff. All in all, a lot of different thing is happening in European politics these days, and now you can also predict the next French president. So, who is your favorite?

Will Tim Kaine be Hillary’s safe vice presidential candidate, or will she decide to risk a bit with someone else?

How important the dates of National Conventions can be had been shown once again this year as Democrats have a big advantage of holding their convention second, so Hillary Clinton can make her final vice presidential decision with the full knowledge of the Republicans ticket. With this in mind, she won’t hurry though both Conventions (July 18–21 for Repubicans and July 25–28 for Democrats) are in few weeks time.

Republican Vice Presidential Candidate, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republican-vice-presidential-candidate-1/.

And as Newt Gingrich and Chris Christie are first favorites to be on the ticket with Donald Trump, it is Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine who is emerging as the leading candidate on the Hillary’s short list. Kaine has executive experience, solidity, values, critical state and overall profile as someone who would be a good vice president. He even came to Hillary two years ago, and over the past year traveled to seven states as her surrogate.

Still, with Hillary running for the President, many progressive-leaning Democrats would like to see historic two-woman ticket, and it could be provided if Hillary chooses Sen. Elizabeth Warren as her veep. Warren would also soothe the hurt feelings of millions of Bernie Sanders supporters who find great appeal in the message of an economic system that is rigged for those at the top.

Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democratic-vice-presidential-candidate-1/.

Only problem is lack of any personal relationship between Hillary and Warren to draw on. With this in mind, there are opinions that Julian Castro, Sherrod Brown, or Tom Perez would be better options. And there is also talk about few dark horses, like Minnesota Sen. Al Franken. Anyway, Hillary has luck that she has time to look at all the options. So, what is your opinion? Will she go with Tim Kaine as a safe card, or risk with someone else?

Who will Donald Trump choose as a Republican Vice Presidential Candidate?

Republican National Convention is set to be held July 18–21, so in the following two weeks Donald Trump should choose his Vice Presidential Candidate that will be announced on the Convention. And though in the recent weeks multiple high-level Republican sources confirmed the names on the short list, final name is still not known.

And, as most knew before, that list is topped by former House Spekaer New Gingrich who is the first favorite on the markets. He is followed by Chris Christie, New Jersey Gov., and Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions. There are few names more, but many think that one of those will try to help Trump to become the next President.

Republican Vice Presidential Candidate, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republican-vice-presidential-candidate-1/.

Both Gingrich and Christie are skilled communicators who could bring political experience that Trump lacks. And they both want this job, as Trump for plenty of reasons struggled to get support from some of the popular Republicans. Christie is also high on the list, as he is one of the first establishment Republicans to endore Trump.

But, could someone out of these three become the vice presidential candidate, someone like Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin? Probably not, as New York Times also announced today that Trump is considering Gingrich and Christie as his possible running mates, while he started his vetting process. So, what is your opinion?

Today Hillary has a 5.0% lead, but by how much will she lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on July 6?

CNN announced yesterday that a new Quinnipiac University poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Trump by just two points, 42% to 40%, which is a much closer race than other recent surveys have shown. But, at the same time, polling guru Nate Silver said that Donald Trump has just a 20 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton in November and notes that the former first lady has a lead no candidate has blown in a generation.

What is important for Hillary’s supporters is polling data at RealClearPolitics where she has +6.0 or Over lead for the five straight days, though it went down to 5.0% today, after being at 6.8% two days before. So, where will it stop in seven days? Can Hillary keep her lead above 6.0% or even move it over 7.0%, or will Donald start to move it down?

Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on July 6? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-july-6/.

And as Democrats are not pleased with the fact that Hillary’s polling lead is not higher, Fox News announced that 51% of registered Republican voters said they would rather have a different nominee over Donald Trump, so does that mean that future polling will hardly go in his favor? Anyway, you have four different polling options at Fairlay, and good odds if you guess right in which range polling numbers will be next Wednesday, July 6.

Next Scottish independence referendum result: Will Scots vote to leave UK, if they get another chance?

Immediately following the UK referendum on British membership in the EU, in which a narrow majority of UK voters as a whole voted to leave the EU while a majority of Scottish voters voted to remain, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's First Minister, said on that a second referendum on Scottish independence was "highly likely".

If the reason was not clear enough, Sturgeon emphasized that the Scottish Government, the devolved legislature of Scotland, would begin preparing legislation to hold a second Scottish independence referendum to secede from the United Kingdom as a consequence of Britain's vote to leave the European Union.

With referendum happening, it would be second Scottish independence referendum after 2014 when Scotland voted to remain part of the United Kingdom, with 55.3% of the electorate voting against the proposal for Scotland to become an independent state and 44.7% voting in favor of the proposal. So, what would happen second time?

Next Scottish independence referendum result, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-scottish-independence-referendum-result/.

But first, will we have the second one? Well, on 26 June 2016, Scottish Secretary David Mundell stated that "if the people of Scotland ultimately determine that they want to have another independence referendum there will be one", implying that the British Government wouldn't prevent another independence referendum.

In the last few days, few of the polls showed that vote ‘For Independence’ leads, and so this vote is a small favorite on the markets as well. And though timetable of the potential referendum is far from confirmed, you can already bet on its potential results. So, what is your opinion on this topic, and would you like to have some similar markets?

When will Article 50 be triggered? And will it be triggered at all?

Rarely have 250 words been so important – five short, obscure paragraphs in a European treaty that have suddenly become valuable political currency in the aftermath of Britain’s decision to leave the EU. Those 250 words are part of the Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which sets out how an EU country might voluntarily leave the union.

The UK prime minister David Cameron had repeatedly said during the campaign that Article 50 would be triggered immediately if Vote Leave were to win the Brexit referendum. Vote Leave won but Article 50 wasn’t triggered.



In fact, in his resignation speech, Cameron made it clear he was in no hurry to push the button. “A negotiation with the European Union will need to begin under a new prime minister and I think it is right that this new prime minister takes the decision about when to trigger article 50 and start the formal and legal process of leaving the EU,” he said.

So, if not Cameron these days, who and when will push the button? It is not sure whether will the UK get the new prime minister before the end of the year, and that opens another question: Will article 50 ever be triggered?

When will Article 50 be triggered? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/when-will-article-50-be-triggered/.

Lawyer David Allen Green has suggested in a blogpost, that “the longer article 50 notification is put off, the greater the chance it will never be made ... As long as the notification is not sent, the UK remains part of the EU. And there is currently no reason or evidence to believe that, regardless of the referendum result, the notification will be sent at all.”

Thus, there is now a market on this topic at Fairlay, with five different options: from the one that Article 50 will be triggered before October, to one that it won’t be triggered before July 2017, or not triggered at all. What do you think?

Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten: Who will be Australian Prime Minister after July 2 federal election?

Australian federal election will be held on the following Saturday, July 2, and will determine all 226 members of the 45th Parliament of Australia, as well as the next Australian Prime Minister.

The race for the next Australian Prime Minister is between two party leaders: it will be either Liberal leader, and the current Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull or Labor leader Bill Shorten.

Australian Prime Minister after federal election
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/australian-prime-minister-after-federal-election/.

At the start of the year, Shorten was given almost no chances, but recently he is by some seen as a surprise winner, though Turnbull is still the first favorite with the chances of around 70%.

Recent survey showed that Australians' trust in politicians hit two-decade low, so could this influence following election, and help Shorten? On the other side, recent polls are still not going in his favor.

All in all, Turnbull is a favorite, but so was the stay of the UK in the EU, and it didn’t happen. So, what is your opinion? Could surprise vote in the UK, bring the surprise Prime Minister in Australia?

David Cameron steps down, so who will be the next UK Prime Minister?

After the UK voted to leave the European Union, Prime Minister David Cameron announced this morning that he will step down by October. He had urged the country to vote Remain but was defeated by 52% to 48%, so Cameron thinks that after this country needs a fresh leadership. And who will that be?

Yes, you surely think of Boris Johnson. Future Prime Minister Boris? His fortunes have soared dramatically as Britons voted to leave the European Union, as he has neatly positioned himself to become a main player in any ensuing Conservative leadership challenge. And exactly that happened today.

Next UK Prime Minister, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-uk-prime-minister/.

As Johnson consistently polls well with Conservative members, Michael Gove has enjoyed recent high popularity levels as well. He was one of the leading figures of the Brexit campaign, and thus some think he could be the next Prime Minister. Again, he has made a number of gaffes during the campaign.

Other think it could be the ‘Ice Queen’, Theresa May, the longest-serving Home secretary in 50 years. She is truly the quiet woman of British politics, but that doesn't mean May isn't interested in running for the leadership of the Party. And what about someone else, like the Chancellor George Osborne?

Anyway, Cameron said that a new leader will be in post by October, so what is your opinion on who will it be?

Who will win the 2016 World Chess Championship, Magnus Carlsen or Sergey Karjakin?

By defeating American star Fabiano Caruana, with the help of a brilliant rook sacrifice, Russian Grandmaster Sergey Karjakin has won the FIDE chess candidates tournament in Moscow in March and will face reigning world champion Magnus Carlsen in a title match this November in New York City.

In the 12 round match scheduled between November 11–30, that is is expected to attract a global online and TV audience of more than 1 billion fans, Carlsen will for the second time try to successfully defend his title, after taking title form Viswanathan Anand in 2013, and defending it in November 2014.

As the two Grandmasters will compete for a prize fund of at least 1 million euros, it will also be the first match for the title between such young players as they are both born in 1990. And prior to this match they have played 19 games at classical time control: Carlsen has won three, Karjakin one, and 15 games ended in a draw.

How interesting this match will be is best described by Chess.com analysist who said that it should finally answer the question from the Fischer-Karpov non-encounter: what will prevail, the genius of an individual or the iron grip of the Soviet team? Carlsen is favorite, but can Karjakin prevail? Predict at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/magnus-carlsen-nor-series-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-series/.

Spain returns to the ballot box on Sunday, so who will be the next Spanish prime minister?

On following Sunday, June 26, for the first time since the end of Francoism, Spaniards will return to the polls because the parliament they elected on December 20 failed to form a new government. With this, Spain’s ultra-stable bipartysm has entered a major crisis, with challenger parties – the leftist Podemos and centrist Ciudadanos – contesting voters and ministerial posts from the mainstream forces, the conservative PP and the socialist PSOE.

And though PP will probably win the most votes, according to polls published recently, it remains without a large enough presence in the lower house to take a second term alone. It is interesting that a majority of voters of ruling PP would consent to its leader and acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy stepping aside if this allowed the party to stay in government. So, does this mean that Mariano Rajoy will not be the next Prime Minister?

Who will be the next Spanish prime minister, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-be-the-next-spanish-prime-minister-1/.

Rajoy, blamed for harsh austerity measures implemented in recent years that crippled the economy as well as political corruption cases at the PP during his leadership, is seen as the main obstacle for other parties to back a PP government. Still, even with this he is the first favorite on the markets, and if a ruling majority cannot be formed after the Sunday vote, Spaniards could potentially be forced to return to the ballot box for the third time in a year.

But, if it is not Rajoy, who could be the next Prime Minister?  Many think that it could be Pablo Iglesias, who has been the Secretary-General of Podemos since 2014. This could happen if grouping of Podemos and United Left beat the once-dominant PSOE and have chance to form government. There are also some who think that it could be Pedro Sanchez, Secretary-General PSOE, but he is with rather small chances. Much smaller than he had in December.

Sunday will give some answers, but can you give them before by predicting right the next Spanish Prime Minister?

Divided we fall: What will be the voting margin in the UK's EU referendum?

‘Please don’t go’ is the headline of the Der Spiegel’s special Brexit issue, that was followed by The Economist’s ‘Divided we fall’, and looks like they worked. In recent days, polls ones again showed that Britons are going towards Remain option on the EU referendum scheduled to take place on Thursday, June 23.

EU Referendum Result, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-result/.

Still, it is far from closed and it wouldn’t be such a huge surprise even if the UK leaves the EU on Thursday. Most of you surely have your own opinion on what the final result of this vote will be, but can you also guess right the voting margin in the following UK's EU referendum?

The voting margin in the UK's EU referendum, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/what-will-be-the-voting-margin-in-the-uk-s-eu-referendum/.

Currently, most chances are given that Britons will vote Remain, but under 5% margin, though margin between 5% and 10% is also likely to happen. A bit less expect that they will vote Leave under 5% margin, while any other options offers you great odds. So, what is your opinion on the UK's EU referendum?

Will Bernie Sanders endorse Hillary Clinton before the Democratic National Convention?

One of the recently most popular political markets at Fairlay was 'Will Bernie Sanders drop out before July 1?' (you can still place your predictions on this one at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bernie-sanders-drop-out-before-july-1-1/), but though at first it looked like he will drop out after losing California, he still didn't do that.

So, if he doesn't drop out out of the nomination race before July, will Bernie at least endorse Hillary before the Democratic National Convention set to start on July 25 in Philadelphia. Currently, odds go a bit towards 'Yes', but we already learned that nothing is easy with Bernie.

Will Sanders endorse Hillary before the National Convention?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-sanders-endorse-hillary-before-the-national-convention/.

While some think that he will not endorse Hillary at all, others are sure that he will do that on Convention in order to help her defeat Trump, thus not before. There is also a popular opinion that he will endorse Hillary in the following weeks, but without droping out of the race.

What is your opinion on this market. Will Sanders endorse Clinton soon enough, or go so far to not endorse her at all?

Will there be a hard fork before July 10 (or August 1) related to the attack on the DAO in Ethereum?

Hot and burning topic this morning, Ethereum community is shocked by an attack in the DAO. The consequence was price dip in few hours. Because of this, the development community is proposing a soft fork (with no rollback; no transactions or blocks will be “reversed”).

But can we expect hard fork to improve given situation? Thus, you have a new market at Fairlay:

Will there be a hard fork before July 10 related to the attack on the DAO in Ethereum?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-there-be-a-hard-fork-before-july-10-related-to-the-attack-on-the-dao-in-ethereum-1/.

And if you think that July 10 is too soon for this to be resolved, there is also a market for August 1:

Will there be a hard fork before August 1 related to the attack on the DAO in Ethereum?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-there-be-a-hard-fork-before-august-1-related-to-the-attack-on-the-dao-in-ethereum/.

So, what is your opinion on this topic, and which side in the market do you predict it to be resolved to?