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Topic: prediction on next diff increase? (Read 1981 times)

legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
April 06, 2014, 03:06:14 AM
#25
Apr, 1st - 45 Ph/s   50% increase/month

Not surprising. 50%/month is right around 1.5%/day, which is what we see here: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
April 06, 2014, 02:56:33 AM
#24
64%  decrease at the moment

what are you talking about? Decrease of what? 64% ?
Jan, 1st - 10 Ph/s
Feb, 1st - 20 Ph/s    100% increase/month

Feb, 1st - 20 Ph/s
Mar, 1st - 30 Ph/s    50% increase/month

Mar, 1st - 30 Ph/s
Apr, 1st -?? 40 Ph/s   33% increase/month
Apr, 1st - 45 Ph/s   50% increase/month



Post needed correction...
full member
Activity: 136
Merit: 100
March 26, 2014, 01:22:28 AM
#23
A couple sites appear to be around 15%. I was hoping it would be less and with Antminer S2's hitting the market I don';t think this will change unless people stop hashing with old miners. opinions.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

I was looking at this a couple of weeks ago and for most of the last year the average hashing rate increase has held surprisingly steady. This rate has slowed a little in the last two months but I suspect that all of the 28 nm ASIC designs will actually see things jump back up. As an example, over the last few days it's pretty clear that some significant new capacity has hit the system.

http://hashingit.com/5-the-bitcoin-runaway-mine-train


The growth rate has not been at all steady. The graph on that block post is very misleading. Here is a better one:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png


I'm not sure what's misleading about it? The data is taken directly from the stats on blockchain.info and plotted on a log scale. The trend line is an attempt to put a best fit on the numbers and it was a surprisingly good fit. Certainly there are other ways that that line could be plotted but the point was to see how closely this approximates an exponential growth pattern and predict what the trend might look like.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
Bitcoin is the future...
newbie
Activity: 25
Merit: 0
March 25, 2014, 02:25:50 PM
#21
A couple sites appear to be around 15%. I was hoping it would be less and with Antminer S2's hitting the market I don';t think this will change unless people stop hashing with old miners. opinions.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

I was looking at this a couple of weeks ago and for most of the last year the average hashing rate increase has held surprisingly steady. This rate has slowed a little in the last two months but I suspect that all of the 28 nm ASIC designs will actually see things jump back up. As an example, over the last few days it's pretty clear that some significant new capacity has hit the system.

http://hashingit.com/5-the-bitcoin-runaway-mine-train


The growth rate has not been at all steady. The graph on that block post is very misleading. Here is a better one:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png




This is better indeed.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 25, 2014, 09:54:32 AM
#20
A couple sites appear to be around 15%. I was hoping it would be less and with Antminer S2's hitting the market I don';t think this will change unless people stop hashing with old miners. opinions.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

I was looking at this a couple of weeks ago and for most of the last year the average hashing rate increase has held surprisingly steady. This rate has slowed a little in the last two months but I suspect that all of the 28 nm ASIC designs will actually see things jump back up. As an example, over the last few days it's pretty clear that some significant new capacity has hit the system.

http://hashingit.com/5-the-bitcoin-runaway-mine-train


The growth rate has not been at all steady. The graph on that block post is very misleading. Here is a better one:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png


From that graph you can see that it coincides with announcements from manufacturers...
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
March 25, 2014, 02:19:16 AM
#19
A couple sites appear to be around 15%. I was hoping it would be less and with Antminer S2's hitting the market I don';t think this will change unless people stop hashing with old miners. opinions.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

I was looking at this a couple of weeks ago and for most of the last year the average hashing rate increase has held surprisingly steady. This rate has slowed a little in the last two months but I suspect that all of the 28 nm ASIC designs will actually see things jump back up. As an example, over the last few days it's pretty clear that some significant new capacity has hit the system.

http://hashingit.com/5-the-bitcoin-runaway-mine-train


The growth rate has not been at all steady. The graph on that block post is very misleading. Here is a better one:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png
full member
Activity: 136
Merit: 100
March 24, 2014, 09:46:26 AM
#18
A couple sites appear to be around 15%. I was hoping it would be less and with Antminer S2's hitting the market I don';t think this will change unless people stop hashing with old miners. opinions.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

I was looking at this a couple of weeks ago and for most of the last year the average hashing rate increase has held surprisingly steady. This rate has slowed a little in the last two months but I suspect that all of the 28 nm ASIC designs will actually see things jump back up. As an example, over the last few days it's pretty clear that some significant new capacity has hit the system.

http://hashingit.com/5-the-bitcoin-runaway-mine-train
member
Activity: 75
Merit: 10
March 24, 2014, 09:35:37 AM
#17
it should be 20%
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
March 24, 2014, 06:12:32 AM
#16
Quote
Mar, 13th - 30 Ph/s
Yes, if we are looking at Difficulty, but not if we are looking at estimated 14 day average (purple line).
Then it's somewhare around 35 Ph/s.

Quote
Mar, 13th - 30 Ph/s
Mar, 23rd 40 Ph/s   33% increase 10 days... not in a month...
You are first (Mar, 13th) looking at difficulty, then (Mar, 23rd) at 3 day estimate.
Please, compare same kind of values.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 24, 2014, 05:57:41 AM
#15
64%  decrease at the moment

what are you talking about? Decrease of what? 64% ?
Jan, 1st - 10 Ph/s
Feb, 1st - 20 Ph/s    100% increase/month

Feb, 1st - 20 Ph/s
Mar, 1st - 30 Ph/s    50% increase/month

Mar, 1st - 30 Ph/s
Apr, 1st -?? 40 Ph/s   33% increase/month



Mar, 13th - 30 Ph/s
Mar, 23rd 40 Ph/s   33% increase 10 days... not in a month...
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
March 23, 2014, 07:45:29 PM
#14
I think it will increase 15-20% this one but next one when the antminers are in full operation it will go back to 25%

I have to agree with the previous poster who said that anything shipping soon (with the possible exception of spondoolies) is very likely already mining on the network. The network hash rate will actually drop a bit while the units are in transit, and then return to where it was one they are received by customers

Predicting the future hash rate is an exercise in predicting future products and inventory, not (almost) current ones.

legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
March 23, 2014, 07:42:55 PM
#13
I think it will increase 15-20% this one but next one when the antminers are in full operation it will go back to 25%
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
March 23, 2014, 07:00:52 PM
#12
64%  decrease at the moment

what are you talking about? Decrease of what? 64% ?
Jan, 1st - 10 Ph/s
Feb, 1st - 20 Ph/s    100% increase/month

Feb, 1st - 20 Ph/s
Mar, 1st - 30 Ph/s    50% increase/month

Mar, 1st - 30 Ph/s
Apr, 1st -?? 40 Ph/s   33% increase/month

hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 509
March 23, 2014, 06:55:17 PM
#11


Someone is happening
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 23, 2014, 06:15:45 PM
#10
All of these ASIC mining machine manufacturers are (Bitmain, KnC, etc... even the new comer Spondoolies-tech) are pre-mining with the hardware...

Spondoolies claims they don't premine (much). They burn in each device for only 24 hours for charity (or for the buyer if on a hosting plan).

They are probably the most transparent of the miner companies, so they might actually be telling the truth.

The rest are probably premining.


Unfortunately it is hard to trust any of these companies...
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
March 23, 2014, 04:20:57 PM
#9
All of these ASIC mining machine manufacturers are (Bitmain, KnC, etc... even the new comer Spondoolies-tech) are pre-mining with the hardware...

Spondoolies claims they don't premine (much). They burn in each device for only 24 hours for charity (or for the buyer if on a hosting plan).

They are probably the most transparent of the miner companies, so they might actually be telling the truth.

The rest are probably premining.

member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 23, 2014, 04:17:26 PM
#8
Of course it is going up... Global hash rate has increased by 11,000,000GH/s  - that is a whopping 36% increase since the last diff increment... All of these ASIC mining machine manufacturers are (Bitmain, KnC, etc... even the new comer Spondoolies-tech) are pre-mining with the hardware...

Example: That global hash rate is equal to:
- 11,000 Antminer S2
- 7,850 SP10
- 3,650 Neptune

This is a massive increase in terms of global hash rate and it will probably go up even further in the next fews days.

hero member
Activity: 1372
Merit: 783
better everyday ♥
March 23, 2014, 03:08:35 PM
#7
This is a good thing considered all the 1 TH/s miners releasing onto the network, better than the over 20% jumps previously.

Still, we have yet to see BFL, KNC, BA, AsicMiner hit the network yet....
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1199
March 23, 2014, 12:44:36 PM
#6
It's going up - almost +17% now.  Undecided

Sure it is going up Smiley

This is bitcoin diff Smiley Smiley in most of cases it is going up Smiley

This is no FlappyCoin Tongue
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