Topic: Premonition - Bitcoin skyrockets above 30$ (Read 6113 times)

I keep on waking up every morning, rolling over to the laptop and wondering if I'm going to see bitcoin's price at less than a dollar, kind of like the hack crash at MtGox in mid 2011.  There's an IRC log somewhere with Pirate claiming he has/had enough BTC to crash the price to $1.  Maybe that's playing on my mind.

Just for the record, I closed my PayPal account...or will when they allow me to after my balance has been transferred.  This because they wanted proof of SSN, proof of address, and a photo ID.

I've got no big issue with the former two, but I'm not giving them my photo ID.  I'll not be using Mt. Gox if they want my photo ID either.  I guess from here forward I'll be using Craigslist and cash for odds-n-ends rather than E-Bay and PayPal.  And will re-visit developments in Bitcoin-land to see if anyone has overcome some of the lack-of-claw-back issue needed to protect buyers.

I hope that it's long life pans out, of course, and the fact that it has held up as well as it has is promising, but I'm certainly not betting the house on things.

I have significant concern that if/when Bitcoin is forced to make the shift to 'super nodes' or whatever due to the load of maintaining accurate records for something as complex as an entire economy (vertically), it will fail for either technical or organizational reasons.

If the developers decide to insert various bells and whistles to overcome legitimate shortcomings in the system when it is employed for all potential uses, I can only see this aggravating whatever potential problems are already on the horizon.


I'm not sure exactly what you mean by 'sovereign currencies pegged to Bitcoin.'

I see Bitcoin's only hope is for it to be both truly global, and completely divorced from any governmental sponsorship.  Global because otherwise national attacks will probably be successful (if they are are ratcheted up until they succeed.)  Divorced from governmental sponsorship because that will eventually corrupt anything as important as a monetary system (imho.)

I hope that Bitcoin remains completely and actively disassociated from any interaction or any involvement with any bodies of state (or corp/gov.)  Failing to do so will be a waste of time, or worse, I believe.  I hope that the community considers Bitcoin to be happy to be left alone, but willing to be a belligerent in asymmetrical warfare if that situation is foisted upon it.

I'm talking about evolution in the sense of adaptation. The code is tight and unlikely to change much. Bitcoin will be around after EU and USD are in Chinese.


I understand the idea of sovereign currencies pegged to Bitcoin, but not because it is lacking features. If they choose to not use the One World Currency, then they will be playing catch up later.

I only hope to get people to see that there are some legitimate advantages which PayPal (and pretty much all mainstream systems) which Bitcoin lacks.  I feel that if people do not appreciate these and take steps to address them, they will be disappointed in their efforts.

PayPal is way high on my shit-list and I was/am planning to dump them, but that is because of the Wikileaks thing.  As a payment platform for _buying_ trinkets, it's fine.  So, again, if that is what people are hoping to use Bitcoin to compete with, beware.


I'm not second-guessing Satoshi (but would not hesitate to if I felt so inclined.)  What I am doing is questioning the various interpretations of his work which I feel are, as often as not, peoples personal projections.


I hope to God that it will...I've got a raft of BTC at this time.  But the last thing I want in a monetary system is 'evolution'.  I want a fixed set of rules which do not change except only under the most extreme of circumstances.  In this case, only when there is a terminal threat to the core of the system.

I feel that a variety of tuned currencies which derive their value from Bitcoin could both do the heavy lifting of supporting entire economic zones (if it every became desirable to do), AND at the same time provide a lot of features that were left out of Bitcoin in the interest of making the system clean, reliable, and simple.  Win/win as far as I am concerned.

Okay, I know your comment is in jest (as it doesn't make sense any other way).  But I'll bite.  Having traveled through India I saw what the locals did with their waste and the condition of the rivers.  Bacteria don't care about Western or Eastern values, political correctness or whether people have mobile phones or not.  Bacteria don't discriminate in the people that they infest or in the illness caused.  Hygienic disposal of waste is obviously far more important than mobile phone ownership.

I was speaking of Wall St. cheaters.


I'm glad you had good experiences with Paypal. Not everyone would would share your view of them. Caveat emptor. It's kind of early to judge Bitcoin because it's so early in its development. Give it a chance. You can second guess Satoshi all you want. Bitcoin is here to stay and it will evolve into something very useful.

It is my opinion that a rise in value without a bubble is possible.
Lets face it bitcoin was (is) advertised as a get rich-quick-scheme by some people. And it was released to the public by the wrong people.

Comeon, gawker, internet gossip. What do you think what kind of people that attracted?
Bitcoin is a inherently subversive system and should be treated as such it should be revealed to people who would take an interest in that aspect not the ones looking for a few days of internet fame.

Bitcoin "skyrocketing" could ultimately destroy it before it reaches its full potential. Lets say it gets to the status of wikileaks, the news has has a frenzy about it and then it becomes something "eveybody and their grandma" knows about but doesn't care about.
And a scenario where bitcoin were to shoot up to $1000 and then plunge back to $50 would ultimately make the whole world consider it something to stay away from.

We should avoid bubbles or at least attempt to make them less severe. But the news media, gossips sites and propaganda alas "spreading the word" amplify it. Know someone who owns a business who would be open-minded for this kind for commerce? Tell them. (They will tell their customers which will result in real permanent growth)
Know someone who has spare cash which they don't wanna spend? Keep quiet.

Did anyone say that 'investors' or 'manipulators' are 'cheating'?  If they did, I would disagree, and go so far as to say that they (or we) are probably the only reason the system is even where it is today.


I don't want to be to sacrilegious, and I am a huge fan of Bitcoin in it's current original form, but it is simply not a very good internet currency for buying trinkets.  This is largely due to the lack of claw-back protection unless one uses a very cumbersome and expensive escrow or something.

Of course Bitcoin and it's cash-like qualities sounds like the cat's pajamas to the likes of logansyrche (or whatever his name was.)  The guy was so stupid that I don't think he even realized there was anything wrong with taking someone's BTC and giving them nothing in return.  The trouble is that about half the people in the world are of his caliber or below.  Another fair fraction are Libertarians who seem to believe that it is a good and healthy thing to get screwed since that is the way markets develop or something.

Sorry, but as a consumer I'm not about to get screwed and it does not matter if its for $1.00 or $10,000.00.

Bitcoin has a great promise, and I think that there is some possibility that it will be realized, but it's not for exchanging trinkets.  At least not directly.  I sometimes wonder if Satoshi didn't design Bitcoin to be just barely usable enough to keep the network going on the backs of dead-enders who cling to some Utopian vision where they sit on their asses and get people to send them Bitcoin until they cannot produce results (through 'no fault of their own', giving them a legitimate reason default.)

Looks like I've made around 50 purchases on e-bay, and 4 or 5 of them have not gone through because the seller did not have the goods after all.  In at least one case, I had to get PayPal to retrieve my money.  I'll bet that had that not been an option it would get screwed by about 25% of the counterparties.  (Actually, I bet that e-bay would not be able to stay in business.)  I acknowledge that PayPal takes an unpleasant bit out of transactions, but from my perspective as a buyer, it is worth it.

What Bitcoin could do, and if it survives probably will end up doing, would be to provide backing value to currency systems which share it's distributed nature and some of the other niceties, but go farther to address some of the deficiencies that the 'real' Bitcoin has in terms of usability.

"Investors" and "manipulators" are going to find out one day that Bitcoin is a 24/7 open ledger that won't allow cheating. For every pump, there will be an instant dump and vice-versa. There will be very sophisticated analytics of the block-chain so it will be difficult to pull HST algorithm tricks like you can with the closed systems on Wall Street. Bitcoin will become a full-fledged currency worthy of spending and saving. Apps will be developed, which will cause speculative bubbles. The bubbles we will see in the future will be as unpredictable as any, but Bitcoin will be spent because they are damn useful. When people become accustomed to using Bitcoin, more apps will be developed. Rinse. Repeat.

Here is a suggestion, what about no more bubbles? Stop advertising bitcoin as an "investment" and get on with regular use.

You just made baby Jesus cry.

If you are gonna use analogies, you should at least use one that is actually true.  

Killer apps will come in waves of complexity. Each new adaptation will inspire further development of the technology. Bitcoin is in the prototyping phase. The current client is like the Intel 8080. "Nobody needs more than 640k."

Well Mr Andresen himself predicted up to 5 more bubbles, so it's easily possible should Bitcoin be here to stay.

If/when a killer app pops up (and there is still a lot of potential) raising demand, it's almost certain it will attract lots of investors again.

More people in India have access to a cell phone than a "proper" toilet.  Half of the planet live in cultures that do not value Western concepts of hygiene.  Your statement above is irrelevant.

I'd take payment in Bitcoins to build a house! Finding someone else in my area who uses them is my problem.

Didn't you explain to them that it's the currency of the future though?

I'm giving out plenty of money to middle-men at the moment.  Just took out a mortgage to buy a house.  The bank is loving it.  Couldn't get the builder to accept bitcoins.

Bitcoins have already hit $30.  It's not so much a premonition as a... postmonition.  My postmonition record is pretty much 100%.  Astounding.