Topic: Prepare for another year or two of dramatic decline. (Read 2393 times)

there is very simple rule ... just do basically opposite what kwuckduck is saying and you'll be just fine

i feel giddy today and since bitcoin price is $3400 nowadays i am just going to bump this topic for fun and in order to have some laugh together at the famous duck.

note that the timestamp of this topic is January 2017 which is 8 months ago and so far we've had rise after rise (like always).

oh kookooli you crack me up as always

ps. it is fun to read some of the comments here. you can see who is in the same boat as kookooli and who has a level head and who are the parrots.

What you said is perfect last time crash was due to the Mtgox scam who have raised the bitcoin price and after the bubble got burst it crashed like hell but this time the bitcoin price raising because of real fundamental strong and this correction is due to panic selling by the small traders but it wont crash below $800 and it will roam around this range which is good also for the next bull run

first of all OP is a known troll and a liar who always says the same thing, you can check his post history to see this.
second of all prices below $600 are impossible and prices between 600 and 700 dollars only need a horrible thing like another bitfinex hack to happen, otherwise won't and anything below $800 is highly unlikely. and these are prices that we have seen so far.

IMO the sub-$350 that was predicted in the OP is way too low to be sustainable. We've got half the coins getting mined vs the last time, so I believe it won't go as deep as that. Maybe $450ish but the sub-$350 is like the worst case scenario.

it will not be at all what you said, last time was 1200-800--600---200, right now is 700-1200-800-900

this time is completely different than 2013, this increase is rock solid from 200, that one was certainly not

you are comparing an increase of 10x in 2013, to one of 33%, it's clear which one was just pump and dump


they are going to fix the scaling at least in part, a 2MB hardfork was supposed to happen this year, since miners are rejecting segwit apparently

Bitcoin is not banned in China, not in the traditional way.  What happened is basically Chinese government trying to curb offshore investments and bitcoin is very helpful tool for that - therefore it is indirectly targeted.
Chinese exchanges would now collect AML/KYC info on their users, and as usual this warning caused people to panic too much. It is not like bitcoin is ending because of few more restrictions.

I think we are all being taken for fools. Someone out there has seen the bigger picture and they are manipulating the prices to buy cheap coins. They cause these mini spikes to get people to sell more of their hoarded coins, so that they can sell them when the price hits the moon. < $10 000 to $100 000 per coin >

They do not want to make it too obvious, so they orchestrate these small spikes to buy cheap coins at $1000+ < because everyone has their selling price >

Do we see the bigger picture?

I would call you a pessimistic or a sceptic but definitely not a fucker or a fudster ^^

Thank you for explaining yourself.
For the first point, I'd say it's not an argument against BTC. What you're saying is that it can't really scale. Well I don't know the details but the idea SG, LN and sidechains is to answer that scaling problem no? Moreover, scaling isn't a REAL problem. Scaling is a developping problem, it means it's harder for btc to conquer new users and markets, but even if BTC doesn't grow it's not very important, the price will stagnate that's all. We can stay for 2 years without developing adoption and that wouldn't be important.

For the anonymity point, doesn't bitcoin mixers answer that? Also, if you're perfectly right, bitcoin is still far more anonymous than a normal bank account!

I agree with the fact that it could limit the growth, but that's not a threat, there is no need for an important growth in itself

I don't think that seeing a prolongued continuation to the bearish market sentiment would be too unlikely but not as long as two years either. The market showcased that its capable of huge trading volumes and something that people might have overlooked is that coinmarketcap.com 24h BTC/USD volumes surpassed $0.5b, which could be a new record in terms of trading volumes.

Wow, That was definitely not FUD. You have a clear argument there. Much more than the “Ponzi tulips falling to negative numbers!!” type post. I’m not as concerned as you about the two points you make, but I think they are valid. 

Achieving consensus on any protocol change has proven super hard to do. But that is a way of keeping the hands of special interests away from tinkering with the network. So it has an upside. It also seems to kick problems like scaling down the road. Which is not optimal. My guess is that when things really start interfering with the utility of bitcoin a consensus will occur, as it is in nobody’s interest to allow a collapse. But it is an unanswered question and worth thinking about as a risk.

Your second point is also worth considering, IMO. Over time the anonymity of bitcoin has/is lessened. Not because of changes in the protocol but because more people understand how to establish relationships between addresses and new tools to automate blockchain analysis. For me this is not a concern. It is still far more private than any other medium of exchange. Unlike cards, checks, etc. Identity and money are not linked and if I wanted to I could receive/send payment without a path back to me.

Privacy is a big deal and growing in importance. There are many parts of the world with crooked leadership and anonymity offers help to the oppressed. But bitcoin was never anonymous. I prefer the word “private”.  It allows payment that does not require identity. However you are correct in that a future bitcoin user may have to take all sorts of additional steps to hide from a totalitarian dictator who wants to control their economic power. Perhaps there is a business opportunity for software to address this?

My predictions are based on the critical issues i pointed out above and on many other occasions. However, this is not the only effect at work. Hype and manipulation are an extremely strong factor still. This does not mean my points are invalid. At best it means i have underestimated the strength of the hype and manipulation in the past.

Yet literally 90% of your threads are doomsday crap about the price about to drop with no reason, no evidence and frankly no logic. You've been wrong so many times it's impossible to take you as a credible source at this point.

Ok, it boils down to this; Bitcoin is running at and over peak capacity already as it is. It does not scale. Even if SegWit becomes active this just pushes the problem ahead a little. There is still no concensus about how to solve this problem and a lot of people even think it shouldn't be addressed at all. This is a serious problem is we want Bitcoin to grow its use base. Other coins aolve this problem.

Another critical point is its complete lack of privacy and anonymity. Yes it is possible to make it complex to identify and track people and their usage but that's difficult, expensive and time consuming with bitcoin and certainly not safe.

For the digital currency of the future both these points are critical and if not addressed will be serious growth and application limitations if not its demise.

Now you can expect a flood of comments of people calling me a fudster and worse without even the smallest attempt to resolve the problems or show how these are not problems.

I would expect a retest of $700 in the short to mid-term perspective. I don't think we should go any lower, at least not in that time perspective. Longer-term trend will be decided upon the outcome of the $700 test, but I doubt we can go as low as $350.
PS. I agree on your fundamental view - there is nothing fundamentally to support this price level, neither development nor adoption.

And what do you find so terrible about the protocol and the network?
It's a unique thing and even if not everyone (including me) understand COMPLETELY and perfectly how it works from a technical perspective, I'd say that anyone who invested enough to gather a few coins took the time to look a bit inside the technology and I don't see real problems.
The only problem I can indeed see would be that transactions can't be as numerous as we'd like them to.
But that's not a problem in itself, it just limits the number of users so the price inflation. But it doesn't endanger the btc in itself. And people are gathering behind solutions to this problem.

So I don't see what you're saying ^^

I don't care about the price, hype or manipulation. I look at protocol and network fundamebtals and how basic markets and economics can work.

Looks like Kwukduck will be right for the first time , probs 

kwuckduck maybe you havent considered the fact, you've been saying it for years and yet the price has constantly failed to crash ... during that time. even worse it has actually gone up.


i believe that makes you...... wrong ?  

maybe start listening to the price instead of your own bullshit.  maybe just maybe nobody cares about the reasons you have mentioned.

lets be honest someone buying $000,000s  of btc probably knows and understands the technology better than you.  it is quite possible that there is a good reason for buying btc you have missed. maybe the problems can be overlooked for some reason. maybe they are going to be resolved for a reason you dont know. maybe despite the problems btc is still worth the risk.

for your own sake just accept you are wrong now and previously to avoid further embarassment

Bitcoin is going through growth and speculative value phases, it will surely go up once hype keeps consistent.

The news feed, newspapers and blogs communities have taken publicity to new heights, every time BTC increases it falls down to then go up over time.

With more and more startups + alternative cryptocurrency cycles take place there will be guaranteed spikes in exposure resulting in enticing figures.