(This is the latest, posted 2014-11-20. Original
here.)
The list. Here is a list of all the price drops of 15% or more.
pk.date pk.dow pk.moon pk.price tr.date tr.moon tr.price drop ft.date ft.moon ft.price n.dest n.be n.tr.pk n.ft.pk
1 2010-07-19 Mon 8 0.09 2010-07-24 13 0.05 44.4 2010-07-27 13 0.06 NA 83 5 8
2 2010-11-07 Sun 1 0.36 2010-12-10 5 0.19 47.2 2010-12-11 6 0.22 11 68 33 34
3 2011-01-16 Sun 12 0.39 2011-01-19 14 0.31 20.5 2011-01-20 13 0.35 10 5 3 4
4 2011-02-14 Mon 12 1.06 2011-04-05 3 0.67 36.8 2011-04-07 5 0.75 14 62 50 52
5 2011-05-14 Sat 12 7.86 2011-05-21 10 5.97 24 2011-05-23 8 7.1 2 11 7 9
6 2011-06-09 Thu 9 29.6 2011-11-18 7 2.14 92.8 2011-11-24 1 2.42 42 617 156 162
A 2012-01-08 Sun 15 7.05 2012-02-16 5 4.19 40.6 2012-03-26 4 4.65 11 184 39 78
B 2012-08-17 Fri 1 13.3 2012-08-19 3 9.09 31.4 2012-08-23 7 10 18 110 2 6
7 2013-04-09 Tue 1 215 2013-04-16 6 65.3 69.6 2013-07-08 1 77 17 209 7 90
C 2013-09-03 Tue 1 145 2013-10-03 1 111 23.7 2013-10-06 2 122 18 45 30 33
8 2013-11-30 Sat 2 1,130 2014-11-02 10 324 71.2 2014-11-09 12 361 20 NA 337 343
* Number = peak was higher than all previous peaks. Letter = peak was lower than a previous peak.
* 8 drops from a peak that was higher than all previous peaks. 3 drops from lower peaks.
* pk = peak. tr = trough. ft = "foot" -- according to my simplistic algorithm, this is when the next move up begins. (For the latest crash, these are provisional.)
* xx.moon = the distance, in days, from the new moon. Either the previous new moon or the next new moon, whichever is closest.
* drop = percent drop from peak to trough.
* n.dest = number of days of gains (prior to the peak) that were destroyed in the crash.
* n.be = number of days to break even if you bought at the peak.
* n.tr.pk = number of days from the current trough to the peak which preceded it.
* n.ft.pk = number of days from the current foot to the peak which preceded it.
A drop of 15% is not really a crash. Here are all drops of 45% or more, which is what I would consider to be a crash.
pk.date pk.dow pk.moon pk.price tr.date tr.moon tr.price drop ft.date ft.moon ft.price n.dest n.be n.tr.pk n.ft.pk
1 2010-11-07 Sun 1 0.36 2010-12-10 5 0.19 47.2 2010-12-11 6 0.22 11 68 33 34
2 2011-06-09 Thu 9 29.6 2011-11-18 7 2.14 92.8 2011-11-24 1 2.42 42 617 156 162
3 2013-04-09 Tue 1 215 2013-04-16 6 65.3 69.6 2013-07-08 1 77 17 209 7 90
4 2013-11-30 Sat 2 1,130 2014-11-02 10 324 71.2 2014-11-09 12 361 20 NA 337 343
* Only 4 crashes so far.
Crash duration. * In the current crash, it has been 355 days since the peak. So far, this is the second longest crash to break even. The only longer crash was off of 2011-06-09, which took 617 days to break even. If it takes as long to break even in the current crash, then it will take until 2015-08-09 to get back to 1,130.
* In the current crash, the trough so far is 2014-11-02 / 324. There've been 337 days from peak to this trough. This is by far the longest ever.
* Similarly with the foot -- 343 days from the peak, longest ever.
What does this all mean?History.*
2014-05-15*
2014-07-03
Peaks and troughs are not equivalent. I detect peaks as the highest price before a drop of X%. The troughs are the lowest price before the next peak.
The above shows peaks and troughs in the price of BTC/USD. For another perspective, let's look at the price of USD/BTC. For convenience, I convert it back to the BTC/USD scale.
All drops in the price of USD in terms of BTC of 15% or more.
pk.date pk.dow pk.price tr.date tr.price drop ft.date ft.price n.dest n.be n.tr.pk n.ft.pk
1 2010-07-17 Sat 0.05 2010-07-19 0.09 44.4 2010-07-20 0.08 NA NA 2 3
2 2010-07-26 Mon 0.05 2011-06-09 29.6 99.8 2011-06-10 24.7 NA NA 318 319
3 2011-09-10 Sat 5.03 2011-09-11 6.07 17.1 2011-09-15 4.98 2 5 1 5
4 2011-09-17 Sat 4.81 2011-09-20 6.11 21.3 2011-09-24 5.45 9 11 3 7
5 2011-10-19 Wed 2.28 2011-10-29 3.54 35.6 2011-11-03 3.21 3 29 10 15
6 2011-11-18 Fri 2.14 2013-11-30 1,130 99.8 2013-12-06 918 NA NA 741 747
7 2014-02-25 Tue 535 2014-03-04 675 20.7 2014-03-19 613 14 30 7 22
8 2014-04-11 Fri 393 2014-06-03 666 41 2014-07-25 603 36 170 53 105
9 2014-10-05 Sun 325 2014-10-15 398 18.4 2014-10-24 358 8 28 10 19
10 2014-11-02 Sun 324 2014-11-13 418 22.4 NA 39 NA 8 21
* Peak is the peak USD price, which is a BTC low.
* 10 USD price drops in all (BTC price rises).
* 3-6: 4 lower peaks, followed by a huge USD drop. Peaks 7-10: we've just had another 4 lower peaks.
* 2, 6: Trough higher than previous trough. The following peak is higher than previous peak. 10: trough is again higher than the previous trough. Will the next peak (BTC low) be higher than 324?
* Two big bull markets (in BTC): 0.05 to 29.6: 318 days. 2.14 to 1,130: 741 days.
Does anything look interesting to you?
