Topic: Probability graph for next block (Read 594 times)
It would have to include the dimensions of current network hash rate and difficulty. If the dificulty is set as a result of an average hash rate of 28 TH/s and the hash rate drops to an average of 18 TH/s the block is very likely to take longer than expected. However if the reverse was true, the difficulty was based on 28 TH/s and the hash rate was suddenly 70 TH/s blocks would be solved quicker.
This might be the thread you're looking for: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/extremely-long-blocks-what-are-the-chances-135982
I think they have that type of graph on blockchain.info, not sure if it's what you're looking for though
Referring to this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/last-block-215901-was-1h-and-20-minutes-ago-135604
It would be cool if someone could put together a graph that shows the following:
The historical probability that a block is found after x amount of time. So for example when it's been 1 hour since last block, this might be a 5% chance event, and it happens on average multiple times per day. A 2 hour delay between blocks is perhaps a 1% chance, and it happens on average once per day. A 3 hour delay is perhaps 0.1%, and happens on average every 10 days etc.
My numbers are from the air, but you can see the picture.
I think it would be cool to have such a graph, and to be able to understand the probabilities we deal with.
It would be cool if someone could put together a graph that shows the following:
The historical probability that a block is found after x amount of time. So for example when it's been 1 hour since last block, this might be a 5% chance event, and it happens on average multiple times per day. A 2 hour delay between blocks is perhaps a 1% chance, and it happens on average once per day. A 3 hour delay is perhaps 0.1%, and happens on average every 10 days etc.
My numbers are from the air, but you can see the picture.
I think it would be cool to have such a graph, and to be able to understand the probabilities we deal with.
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