I was on eclipsemc pool with my ~950GH, got blocks solved every few days.
Whoa dude thats a lot of hash-power. A ASIC farm?
Topic: probability of generating a block solo mining Bitcoin vs lottery - page 2. (Read 31819 times)
August 30, 2013, 12:03:34 PM
Whoa dude thats a lot of hash-power. A ASIC farm?
August 30, 2013, 10:08:01 AM
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
Sort of. For pooled mining, 300MH/s means you're checking 300,000,000 hashes every second to find a valid share, and should get about 4 - 4.5 shares a minute. A share is anything with a difficulty >= 1. If the share's difficulty is over 4.85 million (the current difficulty), then it's a successful block.
For solo mining, we don't care about diff=1 shares. All we care about are the diff>4.85million, or the block solvers. And yes, a diff=4.85million share will pop up about once for every 4.85million diff=1 shares.
So as far as the lottery analogy is concerned, it's more like 1 in 4,850,000, but that lottery happens 4-5 times a second, not once per day like the PowerBall.
4-5 times a second means 84500 (seconds in a day) times 3 which is 338000 and 4,850,000 divided by 338000 is 14, so that's a 1/14 chance a day. So basically 1 block every couple weeks. But somethin' tells me it's a lil harder than that. What do you guys think about this?
August 29, 2013, 09:52:06 PM
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
Sort of. For pooled mining, 300MH/s means you're checking 300,000,000 hashes every second to find a valid share, and should get about 4 - 4.5 shares a minute. A share is anything with a difficulty >= 1. If the share's difficulty is over 4.85 million (the current difficulty), then it's a successful block.
For solo mining, we don't care about diff=1 shares. All we care about are the diff>4.85million, or the block solvers. And yes, a diff=4.85million share will pop up about once for every 4.85million diff=1 shares.
So as far as the lottery analogy is concerned, it's more like 1 in 4,850,000, but that lottery happens 4-5 times a second, not once per day like the PowerBall.
4-5 times a second means 84500 (seconds in a day) times 3 which is 338000 and 4,850,000 divided by 338000 is 14, so that's a 1/14 chance a day. So basically 1 block every couple weeks. But somethin' tells me it's a lil harder than that. What do you guys think about this?
and difficulty going up at least 20% in 6 days
Though a guy on my pool did find a block on an overclocked 333mh block eruptor after mining on it a week or 2 - there is luck involved
August 29, 2013, 01:25:54 PM
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
Sort of. For pooled mining, 300MH/s means you're checking 300,000,000 hashes every second to find a valid share, and should get about 4 - 4.5 shares a minute. A share is anything with a difficulty >= 1. If the share's difficulty is over 4.85 million (the current difficulty), then it's a successful block.
For solo mining, we don't care about diff=1 shares. All we care about are the diff>4.85million, or the block solvers. And yes, a diff=4.85million share will pop up about once for every 4.85million diff=1 shares.
So as far as the lottery analogy is concerned, it's more like 1 in 4,850,000, but that lottery happens 4-5 times a second, not once per day like the PowerBall.
4-5 times a second means 84500 (seconds in a day) times 3 which is 338000 and 4,850,000 divided by 338000 is 14, so that's a 1/14 chance a day. So basically 1 block every couple weeks. But somethin' tells me it's a lil harder than that. What do you guys think about this?
Was funny how you call it a lottery, though I got 2 when I first started learning about bitcoins. The bad of it like you say you need alot of processing power and I didn't 
and I missed out. ALSO, even if I did I'm not quite sure I had it setup right to deposit to my account and would have been mining for free 
.
Might have been the fact that I had a fresh index but I wish I had that luck on a more known lottery in my area. I'm going to try again if I ever get my bitcoin miner
and I missed out. ALSO, even if I did I'm not quite sure I had it setup right to deposit to my account and would have been mining for free .Might have been the fact that I had a fresh index but I wish I had that luck on a more known lottery in my area. I'm going to try again if I ever get my bitcoin miner
but what about if i get lucky?
easy 25 btc
at 300megahash in a pool you need more than 25 months anyway to get a reward of a block(25bitcoin)
i'm talking at when the diff was 5m
easy 25 btc
at 300megahash in a pool you need more than 25 months anyway to get a reward of a block(25bitcoin)
i'm talking at when the diff was 5m
Thanks.
So it is possible to solo mine and be extremely lucky and hit a block right away, except the chance of this happening is currently 1 in 4,850,000
Yep. Pretty much.So it is possible to solo mine and be extremely lucky and hit a block right away, except the chance of this happening is currently 1 in 4,850,000
Short answer: Not worth it. Get a pool. I recommend Ozcoin.
Yeah thought so. 
cheers pal. Short answer: Not worth it. Get a pool. I recommend Ozcoin.
Yeah thought so. :) cheers pal.
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
Sort of. For pooled mining, 300MH/s means you're checking 300,000,000 hashes every second to find a valid share, and should get about 4 - 4.5 shares a minute. A share is anything with a difficulty >= 1. If the share's difficulty is over 4.85 million (the current difficulty), then it's a successful block.
For solo mining, we don't care about diff=1 shares. All we care about are the diff>4.85million, or the block solvers. And yes, a diff=4.85million share will pop up about once for every 4.85million diff=1 shares.
So as far as the lottery analogy is concerned, it's more like 1 in 4,850,000, but that lottery happens 4-5 times a second, not once per day like the PowerBall.
Thanks.
So it is possible to solo mine and be extremely lucky and hit a block right away, except the chance of this happening is currently 1 in 4,850,000
Short answer: Not worth it. Get a pool. I recommend Ozcoin.
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
Sort of. For pooled mining, 300MH/s means you're checking 300,000,000 hashes every second to find a valid share, and should get about 4 - 4.5 shares a minute. A share is anything with a difficulty >= 1. If the share's difficulty is over 4.85 million (the current difficulty), then it's a successful block.
For solo mining, we don't care about diff=1 shares. All we care about are the diff>4.85million, or the block solvers. And yes, a diff=4.85million share will pop up about once for every 4.85million diff=1 shares.
So as far as the lottery analogy is concerned, it's more like 1 in 4,850,000, but that lottery happens 4-5 times a second, not once per day like the PowerBall.
I think your chances at finding a block are MUCH better than winning a lottery. That being said I would think at 300 MH\s it would take you 2 years 73 days to generate a block on average.
zif
zif
Haha, wow 3 years. Is it possible to work out the odds of solving the next block? (As in the next 10 minutes)
At 300MH/s and current difficulty of ~4.8mio you'll need an average of ~800days to generate 1 block,
difficulty will change soon to ~6.8mio, puts your 300MH/s to an average of ~1000days per block.
You might get lucky and solve a block in 1year, or never, which is more likely.
difficulty will change soon to ~6.8mio, puts your 300MH/s to an average of ~1000days per block.
You might get lucky and solve a block in 1year, or never, which is more likely.
Right now, If I were to solo mine Bitcoin with a low hash rate (300mh/s) what are my chances of generating a block?
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
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