Topic: Probability of Hard Fork Update - page 2. (Read 2175 times)
Time to switch pools no more Antpool, lets switch to any pools mining with Core(main version). if any one performs a hard fork without 95% of nodes consensus and +75% of hash power consensus deserves becoming alt coin and devalued. it doesn't make any sense, why are there different versions? if those developers think that they know better then why change anything in the code? go ahead and make your own alt coin or maybe they think by changing something they can have advantage over others?
Other than that, things will indeed get more interesting when we come closer to the final point. I wouldn't even be surprised when certain pools suddenly drop their support for BU when things are about to get real serious.
nah. pure assumption but i am convinced he controls far more than he admits to.
maybe the 40-50% barrier is where it stalls if it manages to get there. that's when you might have to actually think this stuff through properly. it's getting close. i just can't see any rational person voting to push it through.
the first part is the easy part. the closer it gets the harder it's gonna be to convince other miners to come on board. that's assuming that this jihan guy doesn't control 70-80% of the hashing which he probably does but doesn't want to admit right now.
Jihan Wu definitely accounts for a major part of the total hash power, but I don't think it's anywhere near the 70-80% you seem to be pointing at. Can you link me to an article or whatever else that somewhat 'confirms' your assumption? Other than that, things will indeed get more interesting when we come closer to the final point. I wouldn't even be surprised when certain pools suddenly drop their support for BU when things are about to get real serious.
The chart looks interesting today
Last 1000 blocks still at 38,6% but the last 144 blocks are down to 34,7% for BU
Can of course be a coincidence and "BU-miners" found less blocks today than "segwit-miners".
https://coin.dance/blocks
Last 1000 blocks still at 38,6% but the last 144 blocks are down to 34,7% for BU
Can of course be a coincidence and "BU-miners" found less blocks today than "segwit-miners".
https://coin.dance/blocks
https://coin.dance/blocks
So... when BU gets 50% there is high danger of hard fork?
What do you think are the chances that a hard fork happens in the next month in %?
So... when BU gets 50% there is high danger of hard fork?
What do you think are the chances that a hard fork happens in the next month in %?
TL;DR: The danger of hardfork in the next month is under 5%.
Might be an underestimation IMO. Some big fishes hasn't still decided where to commit.
This is a great write up on one large risk for BU users in a split. If BItcoin Core and the smaller current 1mb implementations regain hash power majority in the future, say after BU has been running for years, the entire old BU chain would orphan potentially as it rejoins.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/how-bitcoin-unlimited-users-may-end-different-blockchains/
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/how-bitcoin-unlimited-users-may-end-different-blockchains/
https://coin.dance/blocks
So... when BU gets 50% there is high danger of hard fork?
What do you think are the chances that a hard fork happens in the next month in %?
So... when BU gets 50% there is high danger of hard fork?
What do you think are the chances that a hard fork happens in the next month in %?
First of all, there's quite a big step from 38% to 50%+. I remember SegWit had also very promising % at start and then stopped and even decreased.
So basically we should care of this when BU gets way over 45%, maybe 48-49%.
Now your questions:
From what I know, BU has something hardcoded and only after a very big % of network is theirs, only then they will hardfork. So while in theory, at 51% they have the chance to hardfork just by emitting bigger blocks, they don't intend to. Of course, politics can trigger a change of ideas, change in code, update and kaboom. But no. The battle is to get the whole network. The battle is to get the coin. A coin that now valuates about 1000$ a piece.
If they do it wrong, they can end up with a chain supporting a coin with much less value, which is not a good business.
So they want the network. That means much more work and persuasion. One month is not enough time. If they do it in the next month the chance for a fiasco is too big. They are smarter than to risk that.
TL;DR: The danger of hardfork in the next month is under 5%.
I say in 2 weeks, first days of April...
the chance are slim, 51% is not enough, but i noticed that while BU increase two points percentage, segwit also did so and increase 1-2 points, was 25-26% before
this seems a nice website with a recap about mined block distribution http://xtnodes.com/
this seems a nice website with a recap about mined block distribution http://xtnodes.com/
for a HF you need consensus, without it only an altcoin.
so 51% is just a step.
so 51% is just a step.
the first part is the easy part. the closer it gets the harder it's gonna be to convince other miners to come on board. that's assuming that this jihan guy doesn't control 70-80% of the hashing which he probably does but doesn't want to admit right now.
Well none can know that for sure but the BU blocks are rising fast lately.
If it's going to happen, it will happen in the next month or two i belive.
If it's going to happen, it will happen in the next month or two i belive.
https://coin.dance/blocks
So... when BU gets 50% there is high danger of hard fork?
What do you think are the chances that a hard fork happens in the next month in %?
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