I didn't ignore that fact, I used the terminology "active stake" to refer to stakeholders who are online. Apologies that I wasn't clear enough.
Using the same terminology of post #156, you describe a scenario where the attacker has 33/50 = 66% of the active stake, while the honest network has 17/50 = 34% of the active stake. Obviously, if the attacker has the majority of the active stake then this protocol becomes much less secure than Bitcoin's pure-PoW.
Yup. The problem is that amount of active stake might vary greatly, so attacker having minority of total coins might have a majority of active stake at some point.
It could be helpful to consider why this isn't a concern with Bitcoin's pure-PoW: suppose an attacker has e.g. 100 gigahash/s while the honest network has e.g. 20 terahash/s, would it be reasonable to say that the honest hashpower might vary greatly so the attacker's 100 gigahash/s might become a majority at some point? I suppose that we agree that it's unreasonable to say that, because the miners have a financial incentive to participate in the network (in the form of the block reward and fees). Note that miners who immediately exchange the coins that they mine for fiat currency don't have an incentive to secure the network.
Similarly, if the financial incentive for stakeholders is big enough, then it would also unreasonable to say that the honest+active stake might vary greatly so the attacker might gain a majority of the active stake. The problem is that if the protocol rewards the stakeholders too much, then it'd result in a situation where the rich get richer, so we have to strike a balance between the desired stakeholders' participation level and the stakeholders' reward. I think that after the monetary inflation ends (or becomes insignificant in comparison to txn fees), it's straightforward to accomplish this balance by giving e.g. 1/2 of the fees to the miners and 1/2 of the fees to the stakeholders, but it's unclear to me how to achieve this balance while the block reward subsidy is still significant. Also note that it's reasonable to assume that stakeholders have a greater incentive to secure the network than miners, so this also contributes to the overall stakeholders' participation level.
I wouldn't worry about double spends coming from someone with USD$20 million of bitcoin. He will be scrambling to keep the network secure and his fortune safe. Only an idiot would try to double spend from this position.
Well, I dunno... What if he borrows bitcoins to short them? Or rents the stake?
Suppose I have a lot of USD. I would try to borrow or rent as much BTC as possible (I have a lot of collateral and can offer all sorts of legal protections), do some double-spends. Then sell BTC.
Exchange rate plummets from panic and perceived lack of security. I buy bitcoins back at low price. and return them.
I hope that cunicula would respond soon. Let me just remark that I think that there's a significant difference between the total amount coins that were generated, and the amount of coins that can be bought at the exchanges. So if the attack requires millions of coins (for example 20% of the total stake, see post #158), then we're good.