Topic: Pump only happened to liquiidate Short Stops, Dump has now wiped out Long Stops. (Read 1642 times)

And I think the same and have said the same in other threads.  Of course I don't think TA is legitimate anyway--it's all crystal ball gazing to me.  Hooey.  And fundamental analysis doesn't even apply in my opinion, because bitcoin can't be analyzed like stocks or bonds can.  There's no earnings, no CEOs taking stock options, none of that.  The price of bitcoin, I think, is dependent solely on market forces.  Buying and selling orders.  Speculation.

Yep. I am 95% cashed out of Bitcoin. Had enough of Bitcoin and the exchange shenanigans for now, just as I would imagine many hundreds, if not thousands of other BTC traders have by now. As you say, Mining Costs are rising, liquidity is leaving the market, sharks operating behind the exchanges are getting increasingly, which in the long run only results in more liquidity leaving the market as traders turn away in disgust at the blatantly fraudulent pocket dipping antics of the exchanges.

Whole feel of market right now, is screaming DOWN....but I aint gonna short it......just end up getting my Stop Triggered once again. (ya gotta trade with active Stops if u use margin)



How nice for you.

That means you won't feel so bad when Bitcoin is trading back down in the $200s:

Considering i bought in the $200's I'm happy hodling, none of this is outside my own trading plan, including this downturn. Ps if you know so much about how they trigger your stops why you do it then ? Did your paid for experts tell you?

Some tips for the OP:

1) Don't try to make money by trading bitcoin. The amount of speculator money is leaving while mining costs are rising, this makes the odds of winning very bad for everyone and the sharks are especially aggressive.

2) If you absolutely have to trade bitcoin because of gambling addiction or something similar, then DO NOT let your plan/position known to the exchanges. If you use leverage or you write down your buy/sell point, then you're only showing your hand and make it easier for the exchanges to calculate the winning moves..

Remember that without regulations, there is absolutely nothing stopping the exchanges to use insider information. I personally got a good laugh when bitfinex told that they can't accept NYC regulations because the 5000$ fee for the license is too high. Yeah right, of course the fee is the problem, not the insider trading part.
Play cryptos that have more potential and lighter markets. Stop banging your head on the same wall over and over again.

It wasn't China.

It was Bitfinex.

Market aint doing fuck all. Bitfinex know market is ultimately going down, but needed to get some of these fkn pesky shorts off thier order books, so they turn on their voluminator, ramp BTC up, and then let the FOMO brigade pump BTC into the major short liquidity zones. Bitfinex lead all other BTC exchanges by a minute or two, with 2K BTC of volume that just came in out of knowhere. Shorts wiped out at break even and/or even loss levels. But now, there are a bunch of margin longs on the books....so.....turn the voluminator back on' slam a 2K sell order into Ask Wall, (again leading other exchanges by 1-2 minutes), then keep running market down to just beneath the first Long Stop liquidity pool. Job done. BucketshopFinex wins again!

Go look at the charts (follow link in my sig). Of the big exchanges, only Finex done an 80% retrace down into Long Stop liquidity pool. You will also be able to see that both pump and the dump were triggered on Finex, with the rest of the market following on behind. Only reason Bitfinex kept selling off, was to trigger Long Stops. My Long Stop was amongst those that got triggered way down at $365. Had it not been triggered, then I most likely would have exited my position at $375 instead. What do you think is the better scenario for Bitfinex, who aren't really passing any USD or BTC around, until a trader withdraws it from their exchange? Obviously, it is in BucketshopFinex's interests to ensure that as many traders as possible, lose, and they have the means and the lack of regulatory restrictions to ensure that this is always the case.

Bitcoin exchanges are corrupt places. No amount of TA is going to save you from that.

...oh....and my trading community are serving me just fine btw.....after all, I wasn't the fucking clown who stuck a price channel on Bitcoin at $450, that said Bitcoin was at bottom of channel and was about to go to 2 da moon.

LOL!

Mat, Your expert advice from your amazing community of traders doens't seem to help you very much does it?

Every time you get it wrong its because fucking insiders in china triggered your stop loss.

Lol you are the noob.

Just because the whales have a large balance to trade with doesn't mean they can't be used as well.  You need to recognize how they act and trade accordingly, not just on TA that on a unmanipulated market may work fine.  Some large balance holders may trade on the news that's happening, or use it to their advantage.  There have been plenty of flash-crashes in Bitcoin history based on bad news that could have been traded on for a large profit.

You really need to take a breather.  You didn't need insider information to trade this pump right, and the exchange operators are probably doing juust fine on the fees they're making.

I can now merely shrug as the market is tossed up and then smashed down by a single mouse click somewhere.

Matt chill out before you pop something

Good points....

...and you know what.....I done just that...I had already taken profits from my long from average buy-in of $374, at $388. Everyone was talking about the impending break out, but I was playing my FU buy-in theory, and had my buy-ins set a below the previous low, and smack bang on the 38.2% line. But the one FU move that I did not anticipate after such a strong break, was a FU move right back down below the base of the entire ramp, which was precisely where my Stop Loss Happened to me, and thus far has proven to be the bottom of the market.

Only time really determines where the FU moves were, and where they were not. At the moment, it seems that the FU move was the move up itself, intentionally engineered to liquidate all the shorts on BucketshopFinex, and the rapid crash back down, was simply a return back to where Bitcoin should be.

I think the key here is too just not trade a trending market, when the exchanges you are playing on are blatantly corrupt, and actively play against thier own userbase. I dont know anyone who was bearish on Bitcoin up in the $385 consolidation zone...but I do some traders who didn't take a trade, cos the market just didnt give them sure enough signals.

I have never thought that TA works for crypto, at least not as well as it does in normal markets. Cryptos seem to be much more unpredictable.

I do not doubt that whales and/or exchanges are intentionally fluctuating prices in such a way as to wipe out the majority of stops as you say, but if you think this information/discovery is valid then why not use it in your TA?

If you think the market will move to wipe out stops then why not trade based on this information on top of your standard TA? When making your trade why not think "Well, the support and resestance lines are doing this and there fore I think it will go this direction so I'll enter this postion BUT I know they are going to counter to wipe out all the small fishes stops so I'll set my position X percent above or below what my TA predicts to account for the manipulation that wipes out stops"...

Place your trade where you think they will wipe out the stops, if this is true then it is just another piece of information to base your trades on and if you are correct then you will win..

Instead of getting all pissed off about a market situation that you didn't account for next time account for this situation and use it to your advantage..

Yeah....I was hoping to win someones elses dime, just like when I sit down to a game of poker, I am hoping to walk away with other players money.

However, one thing sitting down to a game of poker, with a bunch of guys all just approaching the game at face value, playing with the same deck of cards, and by the same rules. Quite another when there is some great big fat toad sitting in the corner, with aces up his sleeves and mirrors reflecting the hands that all his opponents are holding.

Bitcoin is a massive global poker game, with just a few great big fat toads, sitting in the corner, with aces up their sleeves and a direct line to everyone elses hands.

Technical, Fundamental, Mike Hearn, Blockchain, Civil War.....all means nothing to the toads. They will pump n they will dump.

the like of cooldgamer can come on here pumping his gums about him being right, and me (everyone else) being wrong.....but the fact is, on BFX alone, on the morning (UTC)  of 6th Feb 2016 3.5 Million USD worth of Long trades were liquidated at a loss as the market moved suddenly, and brutally against them. From the afternoon of the 4th Feb 2016 4000 BTC worth of short trades were liquidated at a loss, as the market moved suddenly, and brutally against them.

Seems like everyone here is a fucking loser and everyone is losing a dime, except for the fucking toads with Front Running access to Bitfinex's API, and of course their order books....not saying it is the exchange operators themselves or anything...but it is probably the exchange operators themselves.

Whilst I don't place much credence in many of the fundamental faerie stories that get bandied around this place, other than them providing fuel for whale pump n dumps, there is one 'story' that is certain to play a role in Bitcoins future chart progress. If the vast liquidity providing, trader majority are getting thier asses handed to them, and are being consistently dumbfounded by market action that flies in the face of everything that they think they knew, then liquidity will leave this market, and in the absence of any real fundamental drivers, with fewer and fewer fish for the whales to feed on, that means that market cap must start to shrink.....

.....not going to take a short on BTC likes. If I can see that the writing is on the wall, then so can every other two bit trader, and every other two bit traders takes a short, then you can be rest assured that BTC will rally right into thier margin call zones.

Yeah there was no reason to go long here at 390, from a random spike, was clearly a bulltrap.  My post history from 2 days ago even said i'm closing my long at 385.  I havent touched it since even when we popped over 390. 

MattheCat - I agree with you about how this market is run.  it is frustrating when you like bitcoin.  However at the end of the day you were hoping to win on someone else's dime and you lost on yours.  Don't hate the player, hate the game.  I feel the same way but I'm hoping for a reasonable buy in window sometime over the next few months and i have my view of where we should be - instead of being a spaz and changing that view when someone pumps up the price out of nowhere for no reason, I'm sticking to it, and making money along the drops. 

I'm not a good trader.  Just do the opposite of what the whales do.

I would tend to agree with you on the fact that Bitcoin is a highly cornered market, which can be pushed this way and that by the actions of very few people, and not least of all by the exchanges themselves.

I also agree that the crash based on Mike Hearn leaving, had a lot more to do with whales capitalising on a perceived bearish fundamental, than any spontaenous mass movement of BTC holders rushing to get out. i.e. Had the whales decided to pump on that day, same panic sellers would have panic bought, and Mike Hearn story would be repsun as bullish fundamental.

However....we already crashed down to $350, and spent a long time testing and holding (despite your 'breaches' chart) a rather significant trendline. Even if trend was bearish (and actually 1Hr, and 4hr MAs crossed as bullish), Markets don't move in straight lines, they zig, and they zag. Had that breakout (the 'zig') been anything other than a totally engineered move to wipe out Short Stops up above, then Bitcoin would have been due a zag. 9/10 times, BTC would have 'zagged' after such a break out move, as would any market...but not on this occassion cos their was a whole bunch of Long Stops to wipe out.

I would imagine however, that there is another good argument to justify your conintued bearish stance, namely, liquidity exiting Bitcoin. There has just been millions of USD worth of Short and Long wipe outs. Thursday, all the bears got their asses handed to them, then Friday night, exact same thing gets done to the bulls. Noob traders and seasoned pros alike, will be sitting rubbing thier eyes in disbelief at BTC at the moment. A whole of capital is going to start slowly walking away from Bítcoin and into other things.....

......I doubt I am the only one who is off the mind to pull their funds out of the BTC exchanges in response to the blatantly fabricated price action over the past month or so.

Actually this was more of my lines of thinking.



I'm off to bed, it's like 6:00 AM.  Enjoy your night dude.

For one thing, you're approaching this from a purely TA standpoint.  Bitcoin isn't forex, it doesn't have the insane stabilities of countries behind it.  A few people (or china in some cases) can move the market a lot, sending it into a panic.

Mostly recently I've been short both because of the continuing trend, and because of all the drama going on with the blocksize as well as Mike Hearn Leaving.  The drama has been a perfect opportunity for the whales to create false panic and cause some price crashes, letting them buy up cheap coins for a while before we end up going up sometime in the near-future.

You're right that my TA isn't exactly world-class, but there's more than pure TA when it comes to trading crypto.  It's the ability to use a combination of it to find good times to trade and using the current clusterfucks to your advantage. 

When market moves like it does, or like it did on Finex, Kraken, but quite literally nowhere else......there is no doing it properly.

In the trader community that I am part of, NOBODY called this right. The best, or rather the most disciplined traders, simply didn't take a position, cause BTC was in No-Mans land, and never offered up a trade setup that they liked. Majority will still be in their Long trades however, cos they all mostly trade on OKCoin Futures. Only Finex and Kraken pulled this FU move extraordinaire (I trade on Finex/Kraken).

But believe me, there is a whole elaborate art to technicals based trading that will pay dividends in most markets.......even in BTC, and I can spot right away that this is an art form which you sorely lack.

I have made thousands trading these fucking ridiculous 'arbitrary lines' in the past, the unfortunate thing was that by suceeding with this 'technique', I deluded myself into actually thinking it was a valid methodology. It isn't!

it was an expected dump. we have seen the price go up and down quite a lot. don't think many people beside noobs were expecting it to go higher than $400. it's pure manipulation. it's a money making opportunity for the smart guys.