We wicked below it in only once before in Q1 2020, as we have done so in Q2 2022, but never closed below it. Hence I also agree, below this level could see another red quarter, or at least much lower prices.
That was the COVID-19 case and I think people was just in great fear and that wick shouldn't probably happen in the first place.There's always an argument for certain prices that should never have happened. We could be looking back months from now and claiming that sub $20K should of never happened, if it weren't for certain hedge fund liquidations and too much leverage in the market. I realise it's somewhat different, as in March 2020 the wick down was so short lived, but ultimately these prices still did happen, regardless of the reasoning.
This is also what I'm acknowledging. Price hasn't yet gone beyond it's previous capitulation levels (at least based on long-term MAs), even if it hasn't capitulated as far by % wise or based on other metrics such as net unrealised profit & loss (NUPL). There are enough arguments that price has already capitulated far enough, while there are other metrics to suggest the capitulation hasn't fully occurred yet.
If price were to reverse from current prices and close above the 200 WMA, it could generate a lot of buying pressure between $25K from $30K from investors who were waiting on the sidelines for $10 to $15K. Personally, while I'm a fan of DCA, for any lump sum buying, I'd prefer to be a buyer with confirmation of the 200 WMA as support around $24K, or buying capitulation around $12K, as opposed to buying $19K.
The thing with confirmations was that it half-biased and I've seen it on the Bitcoin price, capitulation level tend to skyrocket or go deeper when people are too euphoric nor fearful.If price were to reverse from current prices and close above the 200 WMA, it could generate a lot of buying pressure between $25K from $30K from investors who were waiting on the sidelines for $10 to $15K. Personally, while I'm a fan of DCA, for any lump sum buying, I'd prefer to be a buyer with confirmation of the 200 WMA as support around $24K, or buying capitulation around $12K, as opposed to buying $19K.
For sure certain confirmations are never completely reliable. The same can be said for price closing below the 200WMA for the past weeks. The likelihood is that prices goes lower because this support has failed, but if price were to go back above this MA then it would invalidate that theory. Buying into certain theoretical confirmations requires a stop loss, that's the main point I find.
