Hmmm. So 1/2 the new bitcoins available on the open market and the effect is always priced in early and does not create supply issues backend.
While I think its more measurable to see that the price might not run up to a halving, I think its less measurable to see the effects of halving 3-12 months down the road. Especially with the gargantuan hashrate we have now that could be even more extreme in 2 years.
Maybe I'm crazy, but it seems that at least the last bubble was caused by a literal lack of supply. There were times in the runup where Chinese exchanges literally ran out of coins. I would think that a halving would have a potential effect here.
i disagree. it definitely had an effect. it's just a matter of how one defines when it kicked in.
just b/c we know we have all these halvings in front of us doesn't mean they get priced in today. imo,there wasn't any effect until around 6 mo before the last halving (it was Nov 2012, right?). the forward looking pricing-in effect is offset by the never ending threat of the death of Bitcoin or a gvt-led 51% attack that will wipe out the network at any moment. also like Chris said above, the fear that something might go wrong at the time of the halving. as time gets nearer, ppl get more confident and antsie to make a front running move, which i think was about 6 mo prior to last one. after it went off w/o a hitch, the price skyrocketed to 260 or so in April 2013.
of course, the next time will be different.