Quick Market Analysis - 7/29 10 PM EST

hazek

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1003

Quote from: evoorhees on June 29, 2011, 10:53:12 PM

Maybe I'm a noob here... but how are these figures relevant when there are "dark pools" which hide X amount of orders?

Furthermore, how many people just sit on the sidelines watching, without putting in formal bids? If I want to trade at X price, it doesn't mean I'll have a standing bid.

Seems that these are very big unknowns, no?

Not only that but mtgox, even though they plan on changing that, still only shows 0.73/1.73 of the depth table. That's right you only see the bids that are up to 27% under spot and you only see asks that are up to 73% above spot.

At least with TH we see the whole depth table.

Litt

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

who is this guy and why is this on the discussion forum

Timo Y

legendary

Activity: 938

Merit: 1001

bitcoin - the aerogel of money

The order book is very unreliable. It's only a snapshot. There are lots of buyers and sellers with BTC or USD sitting in mtgox who don't place orders until the last moment. There are dark pools. There are large trades going on on bitcoin-otc. And finally, mtgox doesn't publish most of the order book. Only a narrow range.

bearbones

sr. member

Activity: 316

Merit: 250

Quote from: DrYe5 on June 30, 2011, 12:44:43 AM

Quote from: bearbones on June 30, 2011, 12:42:33 AM

You're misinterpreting what IS made available.

Or do you really think that EUR, GBP, OTC transactions, and even SSL don't make the market?

Where is that information available?

I don't know what to say. Is this your first time on the internet? ^^^links^^^

If you can make it onto IRC, I'd recommend it. You'll find market makers, among others. Always remember that bitcoin was created and pushed by pseudonymous figures. Privacy is one of the biggest benefits of bitcoin. Even if we counted all the orders on every public exchange of every currency, this type of analysis would be very speculative.

1,336,206.55 BTC have been sent in the last 24h. http://bitcoinwatch.com/

We will never know how 99% of them were spent.

[EDIT]Doing the math, 99% is probably an exaggeration. You might get up to 10%, if you tried really really hard[/EDIT].

DrYe5

sr. member

Activity: 490

Merit: 250

Quote from: bearbones on June 30, 2011, 12:42:33 AM

You're misinterpreting what IS made available.

Or do you really think that EUR, GBP, OTC transactions, and even SSL don't make the market?

Where is that information available?

bearbones

sr. member

Activity: 316

Merit: 250

Full order books are not publicly available. You're misinterpreting what IS made available.

Or do you really think that EUR, GBP, OTC transactions, and even SSL don't make the market?

I'll leave services and goods out of this, as they obviously have nothing to do with valuing a currency...

[EDIT]I was, perhaps, overzealous. I get worked up when I read that bitcoin is overvalued.

[/EDIT]

DrYe5

sr. member

Activity: 490

Merit: 250

Quote from: bearbones on June 30, 2011, 12:14:22 AM

Quote from: DrYe5 on June 29, 2011, 11:57:58 PM

Quote from: bearbones on June 29, 2011, 11:41:57 PM

I think the OP is a little misleading. As the mtgox crash showed us, there are hundreds of thousands of dollars sitting on the sidelines. If my memory serves me correctly, $1.3M worth of orders were filled by the sell off down to 0.01. Sure, some of that money may have moved, but I doubt that anyone was able to while mtgox was down. It is probably still there.

Memory not acceptable as data. What I have shown is the entire book according to the above site. If you have a better source please share it.

By all means, research the crash yourself. I'm not digging around the internet for an hour to show you data I've already seen. Regardless of the USD holdings of mtgox users, it is well known that ~430k BTC were in their accounts. This is roughly 6.5% of the bitcoins in existence, if you believe that none have been lost.

If you think that the mtgox depth of market data is the full order book, you have to believe that there are no orders below $14.90. https://mtgox.com/code/data/getDepth.php

1. I have been served.

2. So you're saying only 6.5% of BTC are making the market?

bearbones

sr. member

Activity: 316

Merit: 250

I'd also like to add that you're only analyzing the USD portion of a global economy. There is an obvious flaw in that logic.

bearbones

sr. member

Activity: 316

Merit: 250

Quote from: DrYe5 on June 29, 2011, 11:57:58 PM

Quote from: bearbones on June 29, 2011, 11:41:57 PM

I think the OP is a little misleading. As the mtgox crash showed us, there are hundreds of thousands of dollars sitting on the sidelines. If my memory serves me correctly, $1.3M worth of orders were filled by the sell off down to 0.01. Sure, some of that money may have moved, but I doubt that anyone was able to while mtgox was down. It is probably still there.

Memory not acceptable as data. What I have shown is the entire book according to the above site. If you have a better source please share it.

By all means, research the crash yourself. I'm not digging around the internet for an hour to show you data I've already seen. Regardless of the USD holdings of mtgox users, it is well known that ~430k BTC were in their accounts. This is roughly 6.5% of the bitcoins in existence, if you believe that none have been lost.

If you think that the mtgox depth of market data is the full order book, you have to believe that there are no orders below $14.90. https://mtgox.com/code/data/getDepth.php

DrYe5

sr. member

Activity: 490

Merit: 250

Quote from: bearbones on June 29, 2011, 11:41:57 PM

I think the OP is a little misleading. As the mtgox crash showed us, there are hundreds of thousands of dollars sitting on the sidelines. If my memory serves me correctly, $1.3M worth of orders were filled by the sell off down to 0.01. Sure, some of that money may have moved, but I doubt that anyone was able to while mtgox was down. It is probably still there.

Memory not acceptable as data. What I have shown is the entire book according to the above site. If you have a better source please share it.

Quote from: bearbones on June 29, 2011, 11:41:57 PM

If 0.3% of the market was really setting prices, it would be entirely too easy to move funds into an exchange and shake these "market makers" out. If bitcoins were significantly overpriced, there would be an influx of bitcoins to exchanges and prices would drop.

There is faith in a higher price.

dinzy

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 100

Quote from: Klestin on June 29, 2011, 11:12:08 PM

Quote from: Confucius on June 29, 2011, 11:01:28 PM

Except difficulty follows price, not the other way around. The 50% difficulty increase is the lag behind the recent price rises. In two weeks if the price doesn't rise again the difficult will most probably drop.

Price can be affected by difficulty. A miner who is now making half the number of bitcoins that he was two weeks ago may be less likely to sell at a particular price point. It takes both a buyer AND a seller to make a trade, so something that affects the number of sellers at a particular price point can absolutely affect the price.

It's not the only factor in the price, nor even likely one of the larger factors, but it is undeniably A factor.

More difficulty means more miners means more people in the market for BTC. How many people that just hear of BTC start mining on their solo GPU or use BTC as an excuse to upgrade and also become part of the market?

I suppose it could also just mean some parties are investing more to get a bigger share of the pie, albeit at lower margins.

bearbones

sr. member

Activity: 316

Merit: 250

I think the OP is a little misleading. As the mtgox crash showed us, there are hundreds of thousands of dollars sitting on the sidelines. If my memory serves me correctly, $1.3M worth of orders were filled by the sell off down to 0.01. Sure, some of that money may have moved, but I doubt that anyone was able to while mtgox was down. It is probably still there.

What's more, the mtgox depth chart does not nearly cover all orders. There are probably hundreds of thousands of dollars and at least tens of thousands of bitcoins in orders further out.

If 0.3% of the market was really setting prices, it would be entirely too easy to move funds into an exchange and shake these "market makers" out. If bitcoins were significantly overpriced, there would be an influx of bitcoins to exchanges and prices would drop.

The market is speaking, and we should listen.

Confucius

newbie

Activity: 46

Merit: 0

EDIT: Contradicted myself completely. CBF replying again. too high Sad

how to delete toast??

NO_SLAVE

newbie

Activity: 56

Merit: 0

is this stable enough for you?

doctor, the patient is deceased.

newMeat1

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Nice try but your logic sucks. Lots of people are looking to buy, very few wanting to sell.

Klestin

hero member

Activity: 493

Merit: 500

Quote from: Confucius on June 29, 2011, 11:01:28 PM

Except difficulty follows price, not the other way around. The 50% difficulty increase is the lag behind the recent price rises. In two weeks if the price doesn't rise again the difficult will most probably drop.

Price can be affected by difficulty. A miner who is now making half the number of bitcoins that he was two weeks ago may be less likely to sell at a particular price point. It takes both a buyer AND a seller to make a trade, so something that affects the number of sellers at a particular price point can absolutely affect the price.

It's not the only factor in the price, nor even likely one of the larger factors, but it is undeniably A factor.

DrYe5

sr. member

Activity: 490

Merit: 250

Quote from: stic.man on June 29, 2011, 10:59:09 PM

are you seriously taking into consideration the fact that you can see tradehills entire book vs a much smaller percentage of gox's?

also where are you getting TH has 4X the asks of gox?

Wow thanks for catching that. Fixed. Someone is trying to sell 5 at $20 Million on TH. Makes the market look a wee bit bigger than it should. (Leaving the 5 in the total bitcoin count though

).

Data from:
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/thUSD_depth.html
Buy or Sell 99999999: "Can't fill complete order! Buy 9957.58 BTC for 100254214.95 USD"

Confucius

newbie

Activity: 46

Merit: 0

Except difficulty follows price, not the other way around. The 50% difficulty increase is the lag behind the recent price rises. In two weeks if the price doesn't rise again the difficult will most probably drop.

chuckypalumbo

full member

Activity: 148

Merit: 100

Quote from: fascistmuffin on June 29, 2011, 10:40:45 PM

I don't think miners are happy with the price being so low. The difficulty increased by 50%, and the market still hasn't changed. A lot of miners are holding on BTC hoping that price will follow the difficulty since mining profitability has effectively halved.

Agreed, I don't think those miners or holders like myself are going to bend at this level and get taken for a ride. The buyers side is going to have to come up because I don't see the sellers coming down. I'm not coming down, I've got my sell prices locked in and that's it Wink

stic.man

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

are you seriously taking into consideration the fact that you can see tradehills entire book vs a much smaller percentage of gox's?

also where are you getting TH has 4X the asks of gox?

Topic: Quick Market Analysis - 7/29 10 PM EST (Read 2696 times)