Quinlan Associates: Bitcoin Price will Crash to $1,800 in 2018

PizzaBTC

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Quote from: mdayonliner on February 25, 2018, 02:26:08 PM

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on January 14, 2018, 04:37:44 PM

Who are these people? I’ve never heard of them before.

How come! You don't know them!? They are Wall Street consultancy firm Quinlan Associates. The big bold name says everything.

Ops - me too never heard of them Grin

However, I can make a guess.

These are the same people who are telling it's a bubble, it's a bubble Grin

This is what I mean

Quote

In their 156-page report titled “Fool’s Gold: Unearthing The World of Cryptocurrency,” the firm comprehensively stated that the current bitcoin price above $14,000 is a bubble and does not reflect the true worth of the cryptocurrency

These are the people like Warren Buffett "In terms of cryptocurrencies generally I can say almost with certainty that they will come to a bad ending. Now when It happens or how or anything else I don't know" In reply of the interviewers he also said, "I get enough trouble with the things I know something about why in the world should I take a long or short position with something that I don't know anything about..."

I do not blame him, he is an old school. He should not know anything about even how to check an email.

I think I just realised something about these people...

These people are one step ahead then Warren Buffett coz they know the price and the year but Warren Buffett still do not know when it will happen.

They are the set of people who are always fine with spreading of FUDs than using their sense to talk. I am sure they just want to gain some relevance in the market, and they already have it. I do not know them either and I really do not want to know them. If you take a look at it, most of them are just stupidly ignorant and rather than keep their mouth shut until when they get into their coffin since they have limited number of years anyway, they always just want to talk. Old cargoes!

Whosdaddy

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Quote from: magneto on February 26, 2018, 03:54:03 AM

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on January 14, 2018, 04:37:44 PM

Quote

“As an asset, we valued Bitcoin using a cost of production approach and a store of value approach, resulting in values of $2,161 and $687 respectively. To value BTC as a currency, we estimated its utilisation for both legal, retail transaction payments, as well as payments in the black market. After significant testing, we calculated the price of BTC to be $1,780.”

‘In the short term, Quinlan Associates sees nothing but a period of a critical bloodbath for bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem as a whole. However, the firm opined that the market would be rebound after the crash to experience another period of growth triggered by cryptocurrencies with strong foundations and a clear utility

https://btcmanager.com/quinlan-associates-bitcoin-price-will-crash-1800-2018/

Who are these people? I’ve never heard of them before.

I've never heard of them either. But it's opinionated nonetheless.

What they are saying could make sense. A crypto bloodbath could happen this year since usually the performance of bitcoin is very poor after a year of huge pumps, such as last year. Just like 2014 was pretty much only doom and gloom.

And what they are saying about the rebound when market matures again and halving cycle comes round again is true as well.

The only thing I disagree with is the pricing. $1.8k is way too low. I'd say $4k is the rock bottom for this year, and it may not be hit for the entire year.

Is there no worst thing some of them have said in the past? When relating it to where we are today? They will always say shitty things and people like this will always from nowhere give themselves some title all in the name of giving assumptions, but do they really make any sense? I guess not! And as an investor, I would rather not consider whatever they have said as anything sensible at all. You said it yourself, $1,800 is just way too low, and that shows how disconnected they are to reality.

pixie85

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Quote from: magneto on February 26, 2018, 03:54:03 AM

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on January 14, 2018, 04:37:44 PM

Who are these people? I’ve never heard of them before.

I've never heard of them either. But it's opinionated nonetheless.

Nobody heard of them and yet a piece of crap news like that is being discussed on the forums and posted on news outlets. Cheesy

To me it's a nice example of how rumors spread. Maybe we should start our own group that's going to flood the news with rumors of an incoming fiat money crash and banks going belly up.

vidprab5

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Quote from: QuestionAuthority on January 22, 2018, 10:33:12 AM

Quote from: buwaytress on January 22, 2018, 07:33:29 AM

Quinlan Associates, huh. They lost any semblance of credibility in my eyes for at least two items. The first, dark market use. They have to be seriously outdated in their research data if they still believe dark market provides any significant use for Bitcoin. It was already displaced by Ethereum all the way back in 2016, and after last year's enforcement stings on the top dogs, it's extremely difficult to see how Bitcoin can still play a role beyond the tiniest ones there.

Second point that grinds my gears isn't really a point, just their choice of phrase: "Critical bloodbath"

Can't believe you actually have to pay to see their exact methods for coming to their conclusion. Makes me want to enter the consultancy business.

Oh yeah bro, you do want to be a consultant. It’s estimated that globally all major consulting firms combined, like Deloitte, make somewhere near $200 billion dollars a year, they don’t produce a product and are wrong half the time. They generally have no better outcome than guesswork can produce.

Probably I may have to start considering this to. The only thing that perturbs me though is the fact that some people still keep listening to them when their words should be taken as nothing. Since all they do is guesswork and hoping that one day, they can come tell you something like; 'I told you so', they are just set of craps to me. Only that they always find some excuses to justify their stupidity anyway.

naidray

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Quote from: andrei56 on January 23, 2018, 12:17:04 AM

I read the article while their predictions are low, at the same time I cannot argue with them in several points, we know we are in a bubble, we do not know if we hit the floor yet but it was clear bitcoin could not be worth 20k, now they are not predicting bitcoin is going to disappear just that the bubble will burst and then and even bigger growth will follow, this seems about right if you ask me, the only aspect in which most of the forum members will disagree is the price at which they think bitcoin will hit rock bottom.

Even if we were in a bubble, how does that make it possible for bitcoin to crash to $1,800? That is pretty much absurd. So, in that case, what happened to all those support we had back when bitcoin bounced from $2900 during the china palaver, when bitcoin rallied around $5000 to and fro and so on.

Hence, we will just keep popping those supports like soda and keep going down? I am sure they are just some bunch of old associates who are still connected with the old world and have nothing to offer in this new age except to create some nuisance.

magneto

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Quote from: QuestionAuthority on January 14, 2018, 04:37:44 PM

Quote

“As an asset, we valued Bitcoin using a cost of production approach and a store of value approach, resulting in values of $2,161 and $687 respectively. To value BTC as a currency, we estimated its utilisation for both legal, retail transaction payments, as well as payments in the black market. After significant testing, we calculated the price of BTC to be $1,780.”

‘In the short term, Quinlan Associates sees nothing but a period of a critical bloodbath for bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem as a whole. However, the firm opined that the market would be rebound after the crash to experience another period of growth triggered by cryptocurrencies with strong foundations and a clear utility

https://btcmanager.com/quinlan-associates-bitcoin-price-will-crash-1800-2018/

Who are these people? I’ve never heard of them before.

I've never heard of them either. But it's opinionated nonetheless.

What they are saying could make sense. A crypto bloodbath could happen this year since usually the performance of bitcoin is very poor after a year of huge pumps, such as last year. Just like 2014 was pretty much only doom and gloom.

And what they are saying about the rebound when market matures again and halving cycle comes round again is true as well.

The only thing I disagree with is the pricing. $1.8k is way too low. I'd say $4k is the rock bottom for this year, and it may not be hit for the entire year.

mdayonliner

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Quote from: QuestionAuthority on January 14, 2018, 04:37:44 PM

Who are these people? I’ve never heard of them before.

How come! You don't know them!? They are Wall Street consultancy firm Quinlan Associates. The big bold name says everything.

Ops - me too never heard of them Grin

However, I can make a guess.

These are the same people who are telling it's a bubble, it's a bubble Grin

This is what I mean

Quote

In their 156-page report titled “Fool’s Gold: Unearthing The World of Cryptocurrency,” the firm comprehensively stated that the current bitcoin price above $14,000 is a bubble and does not reflect the true worth of the cryptocurrency

These are the people like Warren Buffett "In terms of cryptocurrencies generally I can say almost with certainty that they will come to a bad ending. Now when It happens or how or anything else I don't know" In reply of the interviewers he also said, "I get enough trouble with the things I know something about why in the world should I take a long or short position with something that I don't know anything about..."

I do not blame him, he is an old school. He should not know anything about even how to check an email.

I think I just realised something about these people...

These people are one step ahead then Warren Buffett coz they know the price and the year but Warren Buffett still do not know when it will happen.

andrei56

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Quote from: QuestionAuthority on January 14, 2018, 04:37:44 PM

Quote

“As an asset, we valued Bitcoin using a cost of production approach and a store of value approach, resulting in values of $2,161 and $687 respectively. To value BTC as a currency, we estimated its utilisation for both legal, retail transaction payments, as well as payments in the black market. After significant testing, we calculated the price of BTC to be $1,780.”

‘In the short term, Quinlan Associates sees nothing but a period of a critical bloodbath for bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem as a whole. However, the firm opined that the market would be rebound after the crash to experience another period of growth triggered by cryptocurrencies with strong foundations and a clear utility

https://btcmanager.com/quinlan-associates-bitcoin-price-will-crash-1800-2018/

Who are these people? I’ve never heard of them before.

I read the article while their predictions are low, at the same time I cannot argue with them in several points, we know we are in a bubble, we do not know if we hit the floor yet but it was clear bitcoin could not be worth 20k, now they are not predicting bitcoin is going to disappear just that the bubble will burst and then and even bigger growth will follow, this seems about right if you ask me, the only aspect in which most of the forum members will disagree is the price at which they think bitcoin will hit rock bottom.

hynext

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No one can predict bitcoin priced. It might fall but not $1,800 because popularity of bitcoin is very powerful now. Many people wants to destroy it because of priced last year.

valta4065

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Looooooooooooool
You read that guys? We're all here trying to figure out what the hell will happen but those guys have been able to do "significant testing"! How lucky now there is no longer any doubt about what will happen, great no?

That's stupid. If there is one thing you learn in crypto it's that you can't predict anything in crypto.
Too much innovation, too small market.

QuestionAuthority

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Quote from: buwaytress on January 22, 2018, 07:33:29 AM

Quinlan Associates, huh. They lost any semblance of credibility in my eyes for at least two items. The first, dark market use. They have to be seriously outdated in their research data if they still believe dark market provides any significant use for Bitcoin. It was already displaced by Ethereum all the way back in 2016, and after last year's enforcement stings on the top dogs, it's extremely difficult to see how Bitcoin can still play a role beyond the tiniest ones there.

Second point that grinds my gears isn't really a point, just their choice of phrase: "Critical bloodbath"

Can't believe you actually have to pay to see their exact methods for coming to their conclusion. Makes me want to enter the consultancy business.

Oh yeah bro, you do want to be a consultant. It’s estimated that globally all major consulting firms combined, like Deloitte, make somewhere near $200 billion dollars a year, they don’t produce a product and are wrong half the time. They generally have no better outcome than guesswork can produce.

Pan Troglodytes

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Quote from: deathwish on January 21, 2018, 06:40:37 PM

1800$ -- That's not possible.. In its worst case, it would fall to 5000$ maybe (that too is when China and South Korea will be taken out of the equation by their govrnements...

This is just creating FUD... There has been a sea of people joining the crypto world now and that is disruptive to the powers of this world. creating such news and FUD is a way for them to control us.

don't give in to the fear and also to your greed.

well theoretically it is possible. You know, back there in 2015 bitcoin hit a 1000 USD mark and later it significantly dropped, to levels as low as 600 and later 200 USD. It stayed there quite long, if I can remember well it took one year for bitcoin to recover.

So if you add one "0" to the price, these are the levels we are currently in (10,000 levels) and I think it can drop to 6000 and later maybe to 2000.

Also, at the time it was 1000 it had proportionally even less media coverage (read: FUD) than it has now.

EDIT: but, of course, I am hoping it is not happening again.

buwaytress

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Quinlan Associates, huh. They lost any semblance of credibility in my eyes for at least two items. The first, dark market use. They have to be seriously outdated in their research data if they still believe dark market provides any significant use for Bitcoin. It was already displaced by Ethereum all the way back in 2016, and after last year's enforcement stings on the top dogs, it's extremely difficult to see how Bitcoin can still play a role beyond the tiniest ones there.

Second point that grinds my gears isn't really a point, just their choice of phrase: "Critical bloodbath"

Can't believe you actually have to pay to see their exact methods for coming to their conclusion. Makes me want to enter the consultancy business.

xmzaz

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I do believe bitcoin would crash but i think not to that very extent. Because bitcoin maybe in conflict with the law but it has many rich investors and you cant just destroy something that makes rich people rich.

seljo

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Hodling since 2011.®

Maybe Strain Associates will know better? Tongue

TERA2

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What is this 'cost of production' crap I keep hearing. There is no such thing as a cost of production. Its a variable chosen entirely by an algorithm based on how many competitors there are. Lets say all the miners went out of business and there was just one guy left mining bitcoin on his laptop. His cost of production would be 0.

deathwish

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Enjoy the journey...Live in the now...Future will

1800$ -- That's not possible.. In its worst case, it would fall to 5000$ maybe (that too is when China and South Korea will be taken out of the equation by their govrnements...

This is just creating FUD... There has been a sea of people joining the crypto world now and that is disruptive to the powers of this world. creating such news and FUD is a way for them to control us.

don't give in to the fear and also to your greed.

Pan Troglodytes

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Quote from: Batmain on January 17, 2018, 04:39:58 PM

Quote from: Nerman on January 15, 2018, 01:48:33 AM

I never heard of that group. I think it is just another propaganda against bitcoin. If they think they can influence people to dump their bitcoin because of their report well they will be disappointed.

There is no accurate measurement of the market that is existing today, because real time changes are what determines all of the cryptocurrencies value. But influences and media can affect the soem deciosion and some perspective and it might shake some traders sometimes.

no you are not right. There is a very accurate measurement. Market IS THE measurement. Whatever price there is currently that is the price that incorporated all: the FUD around bitcoin, expectations, influences and media.

Batmain

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Quote from: Nerman on January 15, 2018, 01:48:33 AM

I never heard of that group. I think it is just another propaganda against bitcoin. If they think they can influence people to dump their bitcoin because of their report well they will be disappointed.

There is no accurate measurement of the market that is existing today, because real time changes are what determines all of the cryptocurrencies value. But influences and media can affect the soem deciosion and some perspective and it might shake some traders sometimes.

I never heard of them before but there are so many people these days that is keep popping out and say something to cryptocurrencies, i don't know are pulling the strings behind or is this a government propaganda? The only bloodbath that I'm seeing here is that the arguments of people itself in the pros and cons of the cryptocurrency world. Price correction is scary but usage correction is more scarier.

CRED.me

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The only people who care, are those who need to sell or buy. The crypto ecosystem is on an unstoppable path. Even if the entire world bans ICOs, centralized exchanges, and all of SegWit is stolen and BTC is reverted to Satoshi’s protocol, there are developments in the ecosystem that will continue the march forward. All of those adverse events could set us back into another 2 - 3 year crypto winter if they’re severe and widespread. Seems though far-fetched or premature at this time. We should be climbing a wall of worry heading towards the nosebleed level that eventually does lead to the next crypto winter. Feels more like a bear trap in a vertical market, although the severity of the correction is alarming and we should give some weight to the possibility that we’re in the start of another crypto winter.

Quote from: gentlemand on January 15, 2018, 03:19:45 PM

The 2011 bubble went from $32 to $2.

And the 2013 bubble from $1200 to $150. So the winters are becoming more shallow (and less V shaped with a longer duration for new ATHs) which is to be expected from a maturing and larger ecosystem. So the next crypto winter may only be a shallower decline but may require years for a new ATH? If we drop through the long-term support ~$7000, then I will be worried that new ATHs could be years from now.

Topic: Quinlan Associates: Bitcoin Price will Crash to $1,800 in 2018 (Read 815 times)