Question: The dominant mining pool, at the time of writing this, turns evil and uses its hash-power to reorg the chain. A customer of yours sends you a transaction. If you wait for 10 confirmations, what is the chance that the dominant mining pool successfully double-spends / reverses your transaction?
The chance depends on the fee rate used by your customer. Since the mining pool is dominating, if the fee is nice enough for them to add a single confirmation, others will have almost no choice than to confirm the transactions also as they proceed mining the block. The chance of being able to double spend the transaction reduces as the number of confirmation increases until it eventually becomes zero at exactly 6 confirmations when the transaction has been validated successfully.
