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Topic: RALLY!!! - page 3. (Read 9807 times)

hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 502
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1016
Strength in numbers
October 18, 2012, 07:11:09 PM
#54
Wrong again. You can make "wrong" movies with wrong information and the market won't be less efficient. It does not take two to tango.

Your statement 'You can make "wrong" movies with wrong information and the market won't be less efficient' is not the same as my thesis that every bit of information must be known by opposing forces in order for the market to be efficient.  If my condition is broken, then the sole party with the true information can use exactly the tactic you describe to break the efficiency.  They purposely let the price deviate from it's true value in order to gather money from suckers.  I'll give you that the break is temporary because they have to take profits at some point, so sure, all markets are "eventually" efficient.

They would have to know the info and know that no one else can get the info and use it to make money by being less greedy.
legendary
Activity: 1304
Merit: 1015
October 18, 2012, 04:18:04 PM
#53
Time for a rally...
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
October 06, 2012, 03:15:17 PM
#52
lol at the selloff...
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
October 06, 2012, 11:44:03 AM
#51
Maybe you have a private definition of efficient, but it seems like you're arguing something else. At any given moment, a financial instrument's price takes into account all publicly available information, and if there is a large amount of insider trading, privately available. Prices change cannot be predicted by looking at historical price data.

Well I've given clear definitions for my claims.  You however seem to only be able to argue against claims I'm not making.  I never said anything about predicting future prices.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
October 05, 2012, 06:01:06 PM
#50
Maybe you have a private definition of efficient, but it seems like you're arguing something else. At any given moment, a financial instrument's price takes into account all publicly available information, and if there is a large amount of insider trading, privately available. Prices change cannot be predicted by looking at historical price data.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
October 05, 2012, 05:18:54 PM
#49
Wrong again. You can make "wrong" movies with wrong information and the market won't be less efficient. It does not take two to tango.

Your statement 'You can make "wrong" movies with wrong information and the market won't be less efficient' is not the same as my thesis that every bit of information must be known by opposing forces in order for the market to be efficient.  If my condition is broken, then the sole party with the true information can use exactly the tactic you describe to break the efficiency.  They purposely let the price deviate from it's true value in order to gather money from suckers.  I'll give you that the break is temporary because they have to take profits at some point, so sure, all markets are "eventually" efficient.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
October 05, 2012, 05:10:11 PM
#48
Wrong again. You can make "wrong" movies with wrong information and the market won't be less efficient. It does not take two to tango.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
October 05, 2012, 10:07:40 AM
#47
No shit, I understand EMH, but the bitcoin market is not efficient like "real" financial markets are.

EMH is a bunch of crap due to asymmetrical knowledge and information.
Yeah, every market participant doesn't need identical information for markets to be efficient, not even sure how you arrived at that conclusion.

No, but every piece of information has to meet a certain threshold of opposing parties who are aware of it for a market to be efficient.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
October 05, 2012, 03:51:04 AM
#46
No shit, I understand EMH, but the bitcoin market is not efficient like "real" financial markets are.

EMH is a bunch of crap due to asymmetrical knowledge and information.
Yeah, every market participant doesn't need identical information for markets to be efficient, not even sure how you arrived at that conclusion.
legendary
Activity: 1031
Merit: 1000
October 05, 2012, 01:21:35 AM
#45
No shit, I understand EMH, but the bitcoin market is not efficient like "real" financial markets are.

EMH is a bunch of crap due to asymmetrical knowledge and information.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
October 05, 2012, 01:13:53 AM
#44
Does anyone have data on selling when prices reach a new whole number in USD?

sry,
whole numbers are meaningless...
their is no magical indicator that will let you know when to sell or buy.

No shit, I understand EMH, but the bitcoin market is not efficient like "real" financial markets are.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1038
Trusted Bitcoiner
October 05, 2012, 01:09:13 AM
#43
 Roll Eyes


i suggest you watch the "Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker" for bold price movement prediction.

then again, that may not the best idea...  Cheesy

I've been predicting a "plunge". IMO we are looking at months of trading in the teens and then a slow down trend that will inevitably led to a less then spectacular crash to <10$ ...


good luck!
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
October 05, 2012, 12:58:39 AM
#42
Does anyone have data on selling when prices reach a new whole number in USD?

sry,
whole numbers are meaningless...
their is no magical indicator, that will let you know when to sell or buy.





Yes there is, all you have to do is look into my crystal ball...
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1038
Trusted Bitcoiner
October 05, 2012, 12:52:58 AM
#41
Does anyone have data on selling when prices reach a new whole number in USD?

sry,
whole numbers are meaningless...
their is no magical indicator that will let you know when to sell or buy.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
October 05, 2012, 12:47:39 AM
#40
Does anyone have data on selling when prices reach a new whole number in USD?
newbie
Activity: 50
Merit: 0
October 04, 2012, 11:08:11 PM
#39
I'm patiently waiting for $15 to be the new floor.

why not buy now?

If I had any more fiat laying around I would buy more Bitcoins! I'm not waiting for $15 to buy, I just want it to hit $15. Smiley
full member
Activity: 193
Merit: 100
October 04, 2012, 06:39:28 PM
#38
Annnnnnnd...... CRASH!!

What?  Where?  We will be at $14 by the weekend.

Denial :  is a defense mechanism postulated by Sigmund Freud, in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence

 Tongue


THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE :  X FILES
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1001
I'd fight Gandhi.
October 04, 2012, 05:22:44 PM
#37
Do you guys who watch the market this closely use a lot of antacids? I would have ulcers if I kept up with movements of the market minute by minute!
Usually... I always have a couple of tabs opened on my browser watching the market. I glance at it throughout the day. Sometimes just once a day, other times it could be well over 50. Today has been about 20-30 times.

Clawing our way back...
mybodyisready.jpg
legendary
Activity: 1795
Merit: 1208
This is not OK.
October 04, 2012, 05:00:22 PM
#36
Clawing our way back...
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