Not to take anything away from your analysis, but we have heard this before. It might take selling a whole lot of coins to make it happen—but it can happen. An honest assessment of risks is generally more useful than misplaced optimism. As for myself, I go to great lengths to ensure that I am estimating risks as accurately as possible.
when i make predictions, it is obvious. i was making no prediction, as i agree that there is significant risk at this stage in the game. only commenting on trends... my benevolent advice? hedge both ways right now, until a stronger trend emerges.
but don't short... im not counting on sub-$5.00 BTC any time soon