As much as the bulls enjoy this extreme rally over the last couple days, I'm sad to say it's not real. The large purchases were made by shorts leveraging to the max and with a steady move upwards a single large purchase caused the well known "Extreme Spread" on Bitcoinica to squeeze our shorts and domino into an all out panic. So, the shorts did what they do best and went short again and this time the bulls had the momentum to keep buying and squeezed them out for a second round.
Like all of you I wish nothing more than a steady move up to the "dreamy" rates where we can all sit back and talk about the good old days when Luke-jr attacked the scam coins and Astana forgetting to log out of his fake accounts. They'll come in time but until then we're going to see a major correction soon when the market goes "Why the hell are we this high so fast.".
Ok, I'm done, who gets the mic next?
-pirate
Okay, say your "fake rally" scenario is true. We will retrace to 4, maybe even 3. People will see that, and think, ah, see, 3 was the proper baseline after all. That would create confidence, and confidence drives the price up.
The bull scenario is: The price is going up.
Either case, the price would go up. To be fair, in your scenario it could then go up to 5, which would make it overbought right now, but not as much as some people think.
Is there a flaw in my reasoning?